US embassy cable - 95ZAGREB1926

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001926 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA; USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL 5/18/00 
TAGS: War Crimes 
SUBJECT: "RSK PRESIDENT" MARTIC -- UNREPENTANT 
         BUT POSSIBLY UNDER PRESSURE 
 
1.  (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT) 
 
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MARTIC STILL BOASTFUL, AGGRESSIVE 
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- 
2.  WHILE WE HAVE HAD NO DIRECT CONTACT WITH "RSK 
PRESIDENT" MILAN MARTIC SINCE THE EVENTS OF MAY 1-3, 
UNSRSG AKASHI, WHO MET HIM ON MAY 16, REPORTED TO THE 
AMBASSADOR THAT MARTIC'S MOOD REMAINS "BAD," AND THAT 
HE IS "OBSESSED" WITH SITUATION IN WESTERN SLAVONIA AND 
THE QUESTION OF "NORMALIZATION" THERE. 
 
3.  BY MOST OTHER ACCOUNTS, TOO, THE BELLIGERENT MOOD 
MARTIC EXHIBITED IMMEDIATELY AFTER MAY 1 IS ESSENTIALLY 
UNCHANGED.  THREE WESTERN JOURNALISTS WHO WERE 
IN/AROUND KNIN MAY 13-14 ALL TOLD PAO THEY FOUND MARTIC 
TO BE SEEMINGLY "CONFIDENT" AND MAINTAINING HIS 
BLUSTER, EVIDENTLY UNCHASTENED BY THE CROATIAN SUCCESS 
IN RECAPTURING WESTERN SLAVONIA.  ONE OF THEM ALSO 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  01926  01 OF 02  181438Z 
THOUGHT THAT MARTIC'S POPULAR SUPPORT, EVEN AMONG THE 
EDUCATED ELITE, HAD GROWN AS A RESULT OF THE CROATIAN 
ACTION MAY 1.  EVEN MODERATES IN THE "RSK," THE 
JOURNALIST SAID, HAVE COME TO BELIEVE THAT THE CROATS 
CANNOT BE TRUSTED, AND THEY "ARE ANGRY THAT MIKELIC 
BLAMED THE WHOLE MESS ON MARTIC." 
 
4.  COUNTERBALANCING THIS LATTER ASSERTION, HOWEVER, 
ARE REPORTS THAT MARTIC'S FAILURE TO "SAVE" SECTOR WEST 
HAS WEAKENED HIS SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY AMONG THE RANK- 
AND-FILE "RSK" MILITARY.  ONE TV BROADCOAST REPORTEDLY 
SHOWED MARTIC BLUSTERING BEFORE "RSK" MILITARY UNITS 
AND BEING ANSWERED WITH SARCASTIC JEERS. 
 
5.  THERE ARE ALSO OTHER INDICATIONS THAT MARTIC'S 
POSITION IS LESS FIRM THAN IT WAS.  UN DEPUTY CIVIL 
AFFAIRS OFFICER FOR SECTOR SOUTH, SAIJIN ZHANG, 
INDICATED HE THOUGHT RENEWED MILITARY ACTION BY THE 
KRAJINA SERBS WAS UNLIKELY LARGELY BECAUSE THE "RSK" 
LEADERSHIP WOULD BE "VERY BUSY INTERNALLY" FOR AT LEAST 
A WHILE.  BEFORE HIS DEPARTURE ON LEAVE MAY 14, ZHANG'S 
BOSS, JURIJ MIAKOTNYKH, WHOM WE CONSIDER GENERALLY A 
MORE INFORMED SOURCE, TOLD A UN COLLEAGUE THAT HE DID 
NOT FORESEE MARTIC'S TAKING ANY NEW STEPS WITHIN "THE 
NEXT TWO WEEKS" BUT THAT SOME "MONSTROUS" ALTERNATIVES 
WERE UNDER CONSIDERATION.  (COMMENT: AT THIS STAGE WE 
BELIEVE THIS TELLS US MORE ABOUT MARTIC'S STATE OF MIND 
THAN ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC ACTIONS HE MAY TAKE, ESPECIALLY 
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION OUR COMMENTS BELOW.) 
 
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PAGE 04        ZAGREB  01926  01 OF 02  181438Z 
CELEKETIC RESIGNATION 
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6.  THE MAY 14 RESIGNATION OF THE "RSK" FORCE COMMANDER 
CELEKETIC, A HARDLINER WHO WAS A CLOSE POLITICAL ALLY 
OF MARTIC, ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MARTIC IS WEAKENED, 
POSSIBLY VIS-A-VIS HIS DOMESTIC POLITICAL RIVALS AS A 
RESULT OF HIS FAILURE TO DEFEND "RSK" TERRITORY IN 
SECTOR WEST, AND ALMOST CERTAINLY VIS-A-VIS MILOSEVIC. 
CELEKETIC'S SUCCESSOR, GENERAL MILE MRKSIC (PRON: MURK- 
SHEETCH), IS A MILOSEVIC CHOICE WHO COMES TO HIS NEW 
POSITION FROM THE JNA STAFF IN BELGRADE.  THE CHANGE 
GIVES MILOSEVIC A VETO OVER MARTIC'S MILITARY 
ADVENTURISM.  FURTHER, MRKSIC MAY OR MAY NOT PROVE TO 
BE AS CLOSE A WORKING PARTNER FOR MARTIC AS CELEKETIC, 
SO HIS APPOINTMENT TO SOME DEGREE REDUCES MARTIC'S 
ABILITY TO CARRY THE DAY IN THE "RSK'S" SENIOR 
POLICYMAKING COUNCILS.  EVEN IF SACRIFICING CELEKETIC 
WAS, AS ZHANG BELIEVES, "THE PRICE MARTIC HAD TO PAY TO 
STAY," THIS TOO INDICATES THAT MARTIC WAS UNDER 
PRESSURE. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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PAGE 01        ZAGREB  01926  02 OF 02  181438Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  OASY-00  DOEE-00  FBIE-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-08    L-01     ADS-00   M-00 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   PA-01    PM-00    PRS-01 
      P-01     SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00 
      PRMC-01  DRL-09   G-00       /027W 
                  ------------------C70273  181439Z /38 
P 181533Z MAY 95 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5825 
INFO CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XP/IN// 
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-PMA/J21// 
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// 
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5// 
HQUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
COM SIXTHFLT//N2// 
AMCONSUL MUNICH 
USLO SKOPJE 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
NATO EU COLLECTIVE 
 
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PAGE 02        ZAGREB  01926  02 OF 02  181438Z 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 001926 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA; USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL 5/18/00 
TAGS:  PGOV PINR HR 
SUBJECT: "RSK PRESIDENT" MARTIC -- UNREPENTANT 
         BUT POSSIBLY UNDER PRESSURE 
 
 
7.  MARTIC ALSO FACES INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE AS WELL. 
VISITING OFFICIALS OF THE HAGUE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL 
DISCUSSED WITH AMB. GALBRAITH ON MAY 16 THEIR VIEW THAT 
MARTIC HAD LEFT HIMSELF WIDE OPEN TO WAR CRIMES CHARGES 
WITH HIS STATEMENT IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE ROCKETING OF 
ZAGREB ("WE BOMBARDED THEIR CITIES FOR REVENGE").  IN 
THEIR VIEW, THIS STATEMENT OFFERED AN ALMOST "OPEN AND 
SHUT CASE."  PAO'S JOURNALIST CONTACTS SAID MARTIC DID 
NOT APPEAR SINCERE WHEN HE LATER TOLD THEM THAT "RSK" 
ROCKETS WERE NOT INTENDED TO KILL CIVILIANS BUT WERE 
AIMED AT THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (WHICH THEY CAME 
NOWHERE NEAR).  WE INTERPRET THAT MAY 15 STATEMENT AS A 
CYNICAL ATTEMPT ON MARTIC'S PART TO BACKTRACK FROM HIS 
EARLIER BOAST, AND AN INDICATION THAT ME MAY HAVE 
RECOGNIZED HE HAD GONE TOO FAR IN LEAVING HIMSELF OPEN 
TO WAR CRIMES CHARGES. 
- 
8.  A SESSION OF THE "RSK" GOVERNMENT IS PLANNED FOR 
MAY 18.  MORE CLUES TO THE FUTURE DIRECTION OF THE 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  01926  02 OF 02  181438Z 
"RSK" AND ITS LEADERSHIP MAY EMERGE FROM THAT MEETING. 
 
GALBRAITH 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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