US embassy cable - 03ABUJA669

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MEETING WITH PDP CHAIRMAN 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason: 1.5(d). 
 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met with People's 
Democratic Party (PDP) National Chairman Audu Ogbeh on 
Wednesday April 9.  The two discussed the upcoming elections 
and the ruling party's prospects, as well as the anti- 
violence Code of Conduct for the parties and INEC's 
preparedness.  Ogbeh agreed to sign the Code of Conduct and 
promised he would try to do so jointly with the opposition 
ANPP. END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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IS EVERYTHING READY? 
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2. (C) PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh opposed the idea of 
a postponement of elections.  (NOTE: Several opposition 
parties have been advocating that a delay was needed because 
of their concern about The Independent National Electoral 
Commission's (INEC) preparedness for conducting the 
elections. END NOTE) The constitution declares that all 
office holders must relinquish their authority at midnight 
on May 28.  If the elections are not held and a new 
Administration not sworn in on May 29, the government would 
be operating with no constitutional authority.  Such an 
extra-constitutional "remedy" would set a hugely negative 
precedent for Nigeria and the rest of Africa. 
 
 
3. (C) Ogbeh admitted INEC had numerous problems but said it 
was in a position to hold the elections.  The voters' 
register has been displayed, and the parties are set to 
receive CD-ROMs of the voters roll this week.  Ogbeh felt 
that one reason many Nigerians have disparaged INEC was that 
most people have not traveled to their wards to inspect the 
lists themselves.  Another problem, Ogbeh said, is the space 
for the thumbprint on the ballots.  During Ogbeh's meeting 
with INEC and other parties the day before, he said it was 
agreed that the index finger rather than the thumb could be 
used for marking the ballot. 
 
 
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PDP'S CHANCES 
------------- 
 
 
4. (C) Ogbeh thought the PDP campaign was doing very well, 
better than other parties.  However, he predicted violence 
in Lagos and Benue.  Other states where violence could occur 
are Akwa-Ibom, Cross River, Kwara and Plateau.  He predicted 
there would be no violence in Kano or Kaduna. 
 
 
5. (C) In the Muslim North, Ogbeh predicted President 
Obasanjo would win in Kano and Kebbi, with Katsina a toss-up 
between the President and Buhari.  He also predicted that 
two-thirds of the South-East would vote for Obasanjo.  With 
Obasanjo doing well in the South-East and in some Northern 
states, Ogbeh was confident of victory, expecting 60 to 65 
percent of the overall vote on the first ballot; there would 
be no run-off.  In gubernatorial elections, he predicted PDP 
losses in Anambra and Borno, with Plateau a possibility; 
however, the PDP would make gains in Oyo, Ekiti and Osun, 
and possibly Ogun.  Ogbeh admitted that too many PDP gains 
in the South-West would cause problems, as the area had been 
exclusively controlled by the Alliance for Democracy Party 
(AD).  However, the AD could no longer argue that the South- 
West should be its exclusive preserve since the AD itself 
was contesting elections in Borno, Benue, Anambra and 
Plateau.  This abrogated any prior PDP assurances that it 
would not contest in the South-West. 
 
 
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CODE OF CONDUCT 
--------------- 
 
 
6. (C) Ambassador Jeter asked that the PDP sign the INEC 
Code of Conduct.  The Code had been signed by all but four 
of the 30 parties.  Two of the four were the PDP and ANPP, 
the main opposition.  Jeter stressed that signing the Code 
was symbolically important for the entire nation.  This 
would have even greater impact if the PDP and ANPP signed 
together.  Ogbeh agreed and promised to get in touch with 
ANPP Chairman Etiebet to request that the two party chairmen 
sign together the next day. 
 
 
7. COMMENT: Despite a merciless campaign schedule, Chairman 
Ogbeh was relaxed throughout the meeting and appeared 
genuinely confident that Obasanjo would retain the 
Presidency.  His measurement of Obasanjo's strength in the 
North does not completely tally with ours.  However, Ogbeh's 
assessment of the gubernatorial races seemed objective and 
realistic.  Ogbeh's agreement to sign the Code of Conduct 
was welcome news.  Although late in the game, anything that 
can be done to discourage violence and encourage responsible 
political behavior will help. 
JETER