US embassy cable - 03ABUJA668

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000668 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VISIT TO KWARA STATE 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 404 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reason: 1.5(d). 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: Poloff traveled to the Kwara State capital 
of Ilorin on March 17 and met with officials from the 
People's Democratic Party and with the National Democratic 
Party gubernatorial Candidate.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (C) The political situation in Kwara has been extremely 
tense in recent months.  All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) 
Governor Mohammed Lawal, a retired military officer, was 
once a protege of Dr. Abubakar Olusola (Sola) Saraki, the 
perennial strongman of Kwara politics.  Once associates, 
the two men are now bitter enemies.  This personal feud 
also reverberates across the ethnic landscape of the state. 
Saraki is a product of the Hausa/Fulani emirate system.  As 
a member of one of the royal families in Ilorin, Lawal has 
publicly claimed to be a descendant of the maverick Yoruba 
leader who pulled Ilorin away from the crumbling Oyo 
(Yoruba) Empire centuries ago.  Lawal is seeking 
reelection.  Saraki is promoting his own son, Bukola, for 
the seat.  The history between Saraki and Lawal, and the 
fact that Bukola is his father's proxy, has spoiled the 
political atmosphere, making for a tense, often violent, 
campaign.  Saraki the elder and younger left the ANPP after 
Lawal's ascent to governor, and joined the People's 
Democratic Party (PDP). 
 
 
3. (C) One of the issues behind the conflict is the naming 
of traditional rulers.  Lawal has promoted more than twenty 
Yoruba traditional rulers, vowing to "return the lost 
status of the Yoruba."  Additionally, court challenges to 
the nomination of title-holders in the Ilorin Emirate have 
come from both Lawal and Ilorin Emir Gambari (a Saraki 
supporter and brother of Ibrahim Gambari, Foreign Minister 
during the Buhari Administration, Nigeria's longest-serving 
UN Permanent Representative, and now Under Secretary for 
Africa and the United Nations), with each seeking to limit 
the influence of the other.  The fallout between Saraki and 
Lawal has created a real showdown in the state.  Will 
Saraki continue to orchestrate politics in the state or 
will Lawal replace him as the big man, becoming both king 
and kingmaker himself? 
 
 
4. (U) Poloff noticed a heightened state of security around 
the residential compounds of the gubernatorial candidates, 
as well as riot police patroling the town.  The Embassy 
vehicle was required to go through three different PDP 
security checkpoints to reach the State Chairman.  The PDP 
representatives made numerous allegations of violence and 
repressive actions taken by members and hired thugs of the 
All Nigerian People's Party (the party of the incumbent 
governor).  Accusations ranged from tearing down posters 
and billboards, intimidation and physical assault of 
campaign personnel, and even that the governor himself gave 
the command to shoot PDP campaigners last month on the road 
to Benue State. Driving through town Poloff noted that 
there were many posters for the incumbent governor, and 
also for the Alliance for Democracy (AD) candidate (the 
former Chief of Staff to Lagos State governor, Bola 
Tinubu), but very few for the PDP candidate (in actuality 
we counted as many political ads for the PDP runner-up in 
the party convention). 
 
 
5. (U) The NDP candidate denied that any threats had been 
made against him or his party in any way; however, he 
stated  that the ANPP and PDP were simply gunning for each 
in the state capital and that the two parties were doing 
very little in the rest of the state. 
 
 
6. (C) Comment: Given the contentious nature of politics in 
Kwara, the two main parties are wary and on guard against 
each other.  The personal nature of the contest may make it 
more intense.  Dirty tricks and violence are in the den of 
both parties.  The race literally may be hard-fought and 
hard-won.  Lawal may have the inside track but it will be 
close.  Saraki The Elder is a veteran and very wealthy 
politician and he will use all of his wiles and wealth to 
unseat Lawal, who, in Saraki's eyes, has turned out to be 
an ingrate protege.  When asked about election day, PDP 
officials assured Poloff that they would have their own 
security personnel at each polling station, which does not 
bode well for a peaceful Election day. 
 
 
JETER