US embassy cable - 03ABUJA666

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000666 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W AND DRL 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, EPET, NI 
SUBJECT: RIVERS STATE VIOLENCE COULD IMPACT OIL 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter for Reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d). 
 
 
1.(C) In an April 4 conversation with Embassy CRO, Movement 
for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) representative 
Chris Newsom (New Zealand national), warned of a dramatic 
increase in electoral violence in Rivers State due primarily 
to hotly contested gubernatorial and local races. According 
to Newsom, violence against opposition ANPP candidates had 
reached very serious levels.  Only a few of the more dramatic 
examples of this have reached the international media (e.g. 
the March 29 attack on an ANPP rally in Baraka, a few 
kilometers outside of Port Harcourt).  However, thugs 
frequently disrupted ANPP rallies, but these incidents go 
unreported, he claimed. 
 
 
2.(C) Newsom predicted that the aftermath of the election 
will be a continuation of the violence that preceded it. 
Whoever wins, the loser will be angry and blame his loss on 
the victor's fraudulent influences over the election. 
Ethnicity will play a role in this because Governor Odili 
knows the Ogoni oppose his return.  Newsom also echoed a 
familiar refrain heard among the opposition: the Governor, 
Deputy Governor and National Assemby members will fight tooth 
and nail to retain office so that they can ensure their 
immunity from prosecution. 
 
 
3.(SBU) On April 9 CRO visited ANPP gubernatorial candidate 
Chief Sergeant Awuse in Mgbuetor, on the outskirts of Port 
Harcourt.  Awuse was angry about reports received only an 
hour earlier of an attack on houses in Mgbeutor, including 
the houses of his relatives and his personal assistant. 
Awuse claimed this attack was carried out by PDP supporters. 
CRO later visited the affected neighborhood, taking 
photographs of the damaged buildings and vehicles (digital 
vehicles will be e-mailed to DRL and AF/W). 
 
 
4.(C) According to several residents interviewed, 
approximately 20 young men from neighboring villages came in 
with guns, large sticks and knives and began breaking 
windows, doors, appliances and furniture in the houses.  The 
attackers reportedly told the residents they would be back 
that night to inflict more damage.  CRO saw several residents 
packing personal belongings into vehicles, saying they were 
afraid to remain in the village.  Some residents claimed the 
attackers were looking for Awuse personal assistant. Visibly 
enraged by the attack on his and his parents' home, the 
assistant stated that he could "not let this attack go 
without a response."  "His boys" would counter-attack, he 
vowed. 
 
 
5.(C) Newsom claimed that established civil society groups in 
Port Harcourt are pessimistic about peaceful elections in 
Rivers.  He said Rivers indigenes were watching the Warri 
crisis closely.  People were predicting that the electoral 
violence and underlying tensions could erupt into an outburst 
similar to Warri -- where a group might try to shut-down oil 
production in an attempt to advance their cause. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
6.(C)  Newsom is a relative newcomer to Nigeria and is wedded 
to MOSOP, the best known and most influential , but not the 
only community organization among the Ogoni.   There is no 
love lost between MOSOP and Governor Odili and, by extension, 
between MOSOP and most of the PDP in the state.  Thus, what 
Newsom says must be taken with a grain of salt.  His general 
characterization of political violence in Rivers State is 
accurate but the instigation of it is not as one-sided as 
Newsom described. 
 
 
7.(C) Talk among local thugs about shutting down oil 
production maybe be braggadocio or an attempt to extort local 
authorities and the oil companies; however, such talk cannot 
be dismissed summarily.  As both we and the GON have fear, 
the situation in Warrai could be repeated elsewhere in the 
volatile Niger Delta. 
JETER