US embassy cable - 03ABUJA665

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000665 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA:  ANPP AND BUHARI FIGHT THE PARTY'S 
DISARRAY 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons: 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1.  (C) The ANPP, Nigeria's second largest party in the 
1999 elections, has survived its subordinate status for the 
past four years and remains the strongest opposition party. 
With its power base in the North, the ANPP also has 
produced the staunchest presidential challenger to 
President Obasanjo, former Head of State General Muhammadu 
Buhari.  It remains now for the party to capitalize on 
fissures within the PDP and on public disenchantment with 
the Obasanjo Administration to expand its support base to 
challenge the PDP in its strongholds, particularly in the 
South-South and the Southeast.  While Buhari faces an 
uphill battle against Obasanjo, the ANPP and other 
opposition parties may snatch a few gubernatorial and 
numerous National Assembly seats from the PDP. 
 
 
2.  (C) To exploit the PDP divisions, the ANPP must first 
heal its own wounds.  The party suffers discord along two 
major lines.  While ANPP governors are all Northerners, the 
ANPP enjoys support in the southeast and the south-south 
regions.  In some states in these two zones, the party is 
believed to have done better in 1999 than the actual vote 
count would suggest; but the net result of vote rigging by 
both parties favored the PDP more than the ANPP.  However, 
the heavy-handed antics of northern governors at the helm 
of the party have alienated some grassroots support both in 
the south and to a lesser degree in the north.  The second 
rift is between Buhari and the new party chairman Don 
Etiebet. Buhari is a no-nonsense former military dictator 
from the north who can be a martinet.  He gives no quarter 
and expects none. Etiebet is a seasoned southern politician 
who has prospered on a diet of "scratch my back, I'll 
scratch yours" politics.  The two men come from different 
worlds and it was difficult to get them into complementary 
orbit.  However, opposition to Obasanjo and the realization 
that their destinies are linked has smoothed some of the 
rough spots and brought them closer together. 
 
 
-------------- 
Northern Races 
-------------- 
 
 
3.  (C) Some Northern gubernatorial races are shaping up to 
be serious challenges to the ruling PDP.  In Katsina, 
Kaduna and Plateau, and to a lesser extent Bauchi, the ANPP 
has a chance to pick up the top statewide office. In other 
areas, however, the party faces embarrassment.  In Jigawa, 
an ANPP stronghold, a divisive primary has not been 
resolved.  The unpopular incumbent has been forced on the 
state party.  In Zamfara, the governor is facing growing 
disillusionment with his candidacy, as much a factor of 
dissatisfaction with Shari'a implementation as an 
indictment of the Governor's languid performance.  Kwara 
has been a hot race, with the ANPP incumbent locked in a 
contest of wills with the son of the state kingpin who 
jumped to the ruling PDP.  In Adamawa, the home state of 
incumbent Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the incumbent PDP 
governor is unpopular, devoid of charisma and facing a 
stiff challenge from a well know politician who is in the 
ANPP.  In Plateau, a PDP Governor, who is intensely 
disliked, faces an uphill battle with strong candidates 
from both the ANPP and the AD. 
 
 
4.  (C) However, putting a brake on ANPP potential gains, 
the party's organizational structure is cataleptic in some 
areas and members fail to cooperate.  While the ANPP has 
its eye on Kano state, a dispute over its candidate reduced 
its appeal to the voters.  The gubernatorial candidate who 
emerged is said to have few resources and little political 
backing; the rancorous primary has left the ANPP sorely 
factionalized.  Without a strong pull from Buhari's coat- 
tails, that candidate is seen as having little chance of 
success. 
 
 
----------------- 
Presidential Rift 
----------------- 
 
 
5.  (C) At the Presidential level, the relationship among 
the ANPP candidate, Buhari, and his group of inexperienced 
campaign staffers, mostly Northerners, with the party's new 
National Chairman Don Etiebet, a native of Akwa Ibom state, 
got off to a rocky start. This rift, combined with Buhari's 
late launching of his campaign, coming after the murder of 
key supporter Marshall Harry, meant that the ANPP had many 
obstacles to overcome.  Buhari was nominated in a divisive 
convention exercise, but made some efforts (not wholly 
successful) to mollify his critics, even though he made 
little effort to reconcile with the losers.  He enjoys 
tremendous grassroots appeal in northern Nigeria, and some 
positive sentiment in the south, a product of 
disenchantment with Obasanjo's unproductive government that 
has fueled a certain nostalgia for Buhari's firm governance 
in the eighties. Buhari's selection of former Vice- 
President Chuba Okadigbo, an Igbo, as his running mate has 
helped draw some support from that critical region of the 
country by giving the third largest ethnic group a second 
shot at holding the Vice-presidency (Alex Ekwueme was Vice 
President in the Second Republic). 
 
 
6.  (C)  Buhari's campaign has not featured prominently in 
the government-controlled press, although he is gaining 
more media attention.  Most private media outlets are 
Lagos-based, a city that is much more friendly to Obasanjo 
than Buhari.  The President's team has been very effective 
at paying the press to ignore Buhari's campaign and 
Buhari's team has been unable to convince the press to 
provide coverage, largely due to the inexperience and lack 
of deep pockets of his press staff. 
7. (C) Yet, according to many, Buhari's public appearances 
in some areas produce crowds exceeding even the 
expectations of his optimistic campaign staff.  In Adamawa 
state, many say that the turn-out dwarfed the crowd that 
came to see the incumbent Vice-President, a native of the 
state.  Throughout the north, the turnout for Buhari has 
been enormous and spontaneous.  Similar crowds have 
followed him throughout his northern campaign, including 
Taraba, Plateau, Kano and Bauchi.  One Obasanjo campaigner, 
traveling with the Vice-President lamented to PolOff that 
Buhari attracts huge crowds, while the Obasanjo-Atiku 
campaign is compelled to offer inducements to local 
officials to round up crowds for the President or Vice- 
President. Another Obasanjo campaign staffer told Poloff 
that the crowds President Obasanjo drew in Port Harcourt, 
Yola and Maiduguri were "no comparison" to the Buhari 
appeal in the same locations.  He has even made some 
headway in dispelling the accusation that he is a religious 
bigot.  A group of bishops in the southeast recently 
proclaimed that Buhari is an honest candidate and worthy of 
support.  This week, Obasanjo's 1999 opponent Olu Falae and 
the family of MKO Abiola reportedly endorsed Buhari's 
candidacy.  Because of his image, Buhari is a compelling 
figure whom people will come out to see -- the challenge is 
whether that will translate into votes outside of the 
northern region. 
 
 
8. (C) Buhari's campaign also suffers from a lack of funds, 
especially in comparison to the presumed open government 
coffers available to the PDP.  He is receiving support from 
the north and the south-south, but the northern elite have 
been chary with their contributions.  Buhari is not popular 
with two of the most important northern Emirs or with many 
of the richest northern businessmen who worry that his 
strict attention to discipline could dry up the government 
trough and cripple their businesses.  Other traditional 
rulers, including the Shehu of Borno and most of the other 
Emirs in state capitals, are backing Buhari, but they lack 
the deep pockets necessary to bankroll the campaign. 
 
 
9.  (C)  With the deepest pockets in the north, the 
intentions of former Head of State Ibrahim Babangida demand 
much attention.  His almost mythical reputation was 
damaged, however, during the PDP and ANPP primaries. 
Playing several levels of intrigue, he is widely viewed as 
having failed to secure his preferred outcomes, and 
possible opponents do not fear him as much as before. 
According to one source, when he attempted to intervene in 
a Senatorial race in his home state of Niger, he was told 
(by a former lieutenant) that he should desist.  "Pick your 
governor, and leave the rest to us," the lieutenant 
reportedly advised his mentor.  Also, it appears that the 
Abacha family, long believed to be funding Buhari, 
apparently pulled back on their support. They have focussed 
on channeling the bulk of their contributions to particular 
gubernatorial and Assembly candidates in the North rather 
than supporting Buhari. Figuring that Obasanjo will be 
reelected, they probably do not want to unduly antagonize 
him.  Also, given Buhari's track record, they cannot be 
sure that he would not go after their ill-gotten gains if 
elected. 
 
 
10. (C)  COMMENT:  While it is difficult to assess overall 
sentiment, the ANPP appears to have support throughout the 
country, with the exception of the Yoruba southwest.  Given 
the widespread disaffection with the Obasanjo government 
and the harmful internecine rivalries in the PDP, the ANPP 
might pick up some National Assembly and gubernatorial 
seats at PDP expense.  Buhari seems to be gaining traction 
in some places while Obasanjo, grappling with the fuel 
shortages and the crisis in the Delta, is not going into 
the elections at the full stride he had hoped.  Still, 
Obasanjo has the advantages of incumbency and no one can 
really tell if Buhari has successfully shaken the tag of 
being a regional and a religious candidate. 
JETER