US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB798

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000798 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/10/2013 
TAGS: MARR, PREL, PHUM, HR, EUN 
SUBJECT: CROATIA/ICC/ARTICLE 98: NO EU PRESSURE BUT GOC NOT 
READY TO NEGOTIATE 
 
REF: A. STATE 92117 
 
     B. TBILISI 778 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF ROB SILBERSTEIN, REASON 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) WE HAVE NOT DETECTED ANY BLATANT EU PRESSURE ON THE 
GOC NOT TO NEGOTIATE AN ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT WITH US. 
HOWEVER, FOR THE MOMENT, THE EU DOES NOT NEED TO STRONG-ARM 
    THE CROATIANS.  THE GOC IS NOWHERE NEAR TAKING A DECISION ON 
OPENING FORMAL NEGOTIATIONS WITH US ON ARTICLE 98, LET ALONE 
READY TO CONCLUDE AN AGREEMENT. 
 
2. (C) PRIME MINSTER RACAN TOLD THE AMBASSADOR ON A NUMBER OF 
OCCASIONS THAT HE UNDERSTANDS OUR REQUIREMENTS AND IS WILLING 
TO REACH AN ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT.  THAT BEING SAID, RACAN AND 
OTHER GOC OFFICIALS HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE GOC, WITH ITS 
EU AMBITIONS, DOES NOT WANT TO BE OUT IN FRONT OF THE EU AND 
IS WAITING TO SEE THE RESULTS OF OUR NEGOTIATIONS WITH KEY EU 
STATES.  THE GOC'S IDEA WOULD BE TO CONCLUDE AN AGREEMENT 
MODELED ON WHATEVER THE USG AND EU STATES WORK OUT. 
 
3. (C) SOME LOCAL OBSERVERS HAVE QUESTIONED WHY THE GOC 
SHOULD TRANSFER CROATIAN CITIZENS TO THE ICTY WHILE GRANTING 
U.S. CITIZENS PROTECTION FROM THE ICC.  NEVERTHELESS, RACAN 
INDICATED TO THE AMBASSADOR THAT ICTY LINKAGES WOULD NOT/NOT 
BE AN OBSTACLE TO CONCLUDING AN AGREEMENT.  HOWEVER, THE ICTY 
ISSUE COULD COMPLICATE PARLIAMENT RATIFICATION OF AN ARTICLE 
98 AGREEMENT -- PARTICULARLY IN AN ELECTION YEAR. 
 
4. (C) ON APRIL 5, ASSISTANT MINISTER OF DEFENSE JELENA 
GRCIC-POLIC TOLD US THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE 
GOC'S WAIT-FOR-THE-EU APPROACH ON ARTICLE 98.  GRCIC-POLIC 
SAID MINISTER OF DEFENSE ZELJKA ANTUNOVIC WAS AWARE OF THE 
MILITARY ASSISTANCE CUTOFF IMPLICATIONS OF AMERICAN 
SERVICEMEBERS PROTECTION ACT (ASPA).  WHILE ANTUNOVIC WOULD 
SUPPORT EFFORTS TO REACH A DEAL, SHE WAS NOT A PLAYER ON THE 
ISSUE.  THE ASSISTANT MINISTER TOLD US THAT THERE WAS STRONG 
OPPOSITION TO AN ARTICLE 98 AGREEMENT FROM THE OFFICE OF 
PRESIDENT MESIC.  MOREOVER, GRCIC-POLIC SAID THAT, WITHOUT 
    FIRM INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE PRIME MINISTER TO PROCEED IN THE 
ABSENCE OF AN EU MODEL AGREEMENT, THE MFA WOULD NOT BEGIN 
NEGOTIATIONS, DESPITE THE JULY 1 ASPA DEADLINE. 
 
5. (C) GRCIC-POLIC SPECULATED THAT PRE-ELECTION MANEUVERING 
AND FEAR OF DAMAGING CROATIA'S EU ASPIRATIONS -- BY JULY 1, 
CROATIA'S APPLICATION WILL HAVE BEEN REFERRED TO THE 
COMMISSION FOR THE AVIS PROCESS -- WOULD LEAD RACAN TO FORGO 
IMET AND FMF FUNDING RATHER THAN CONCLUDE AN AGREEMENT NOT 
SHIELDED BY PRIOR EU AGREEMENTS.  SHE FEARED THAT, IF A 
CUTOFF OCCURRED, RACAN AND MESIC WOULD SEEK TO MAKE POLITICAL 
HAY BY TRUMPETING GOC "MORAL DECISIVENESS" IN THE FACE OF 
U.S. PRESSURE. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
6. (C) WE WARNED GRCIC-POLIC THAT, WITH TIME HAVING PASSED, 
THE GOC STRATEGY OF WAITING FOR EU STATES TO TAKE THE LEAD IS 
FLAWED AND THE GOC SHOULD BEGIN NEGOTIATING WITH US IN 
EARNEST: BECAUSE THE ASPA EXEMPTS NATO MEMBERS FROM THE 
MILITARY ASSISTANCE CUTOFF, KEY EU STATES DO NOT FEEL A SENSE 
OF URGENCY.  WE ALSO CAUTIONED THAT A PRESIDENTIAL WAIVER 
SHOULD NOT BE PRESUMED.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO REMIND THE GOC 
OF THE IMPENDING JULY 1 DEADLINE AND URGE THEM TO BEGIN TO 
WORK QUIETLY AND CONSTRUCTIVELY TOWARDS AN AGREEMENT THAT 
SECURES US BILATERAL PROTECTION FROM THE ICC. 
ROSSIN 
 
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