US embassy cable - 03AMMAN2205

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002205 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/ARN, NEA/PPD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: JORDANIANS DAZED AND CONFUSED OVER HOW TO 
REACT TO END OF SADDAM 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 2179 
 
     B. AMMAN 2032 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) The day after Saddam's statue crashed down in Fardous 
Square in Baghdad, Jordanians are mostly confused and unsure 
how to react, especially in front of Americans.  Many tell us 
they are stunned that Baghdad "fell so easily" to the 
"invaders."  The most cynical -- yet heartfelt-- remark is 
that the Arabs have been "defeated", yet again.  The first 
rumor out of the gate is a conspiracy theory that the USG 
gave Saddam amnesty and safe passage from Iraq in return for 
"surrender" of Iraqi resistance.  However, some, mostly in 
the business community, are able to view the virtual collapse 
of the Iraqi regime as an opportunity. 
 
2. (C) Even among the pragmatists who see the virtue of 
Saddam's fall, the presumption of bad USG intentions remains 
well entrenched.  Skeptical eyes are now increasingly looking 
toward "what next," with a heavy focus on the "record" of Jay 
Garner as a "Zionist and friend of Sharon," and an 
intensified focus on whether the U.S. will fulfill its 
promises to move forward on Roadmap implementation.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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THE VIEW FROM THE WORKING CLASS 
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3. (C) Most contacts report a "sense of confusion."  Even 
though most are quick to proclaim they are glad Saddam is 
gone, they confess to feelings of "wounded Arab pride" and 
despair that "invaders" have had their way again.  There is 
anger at Saddam for "misleading" the Arab people.  Dr. Fawzi 
Samhoury, a human rights activist, told PolOff April 10 that 
people are confused more than anything else, and appear to be 
waiting for someone (i.e. local pundits and political 
leaders) to "tell them how to interpret this."  He said "the 
leaders of the (mostly Islamist) professional associations 
were absolutely stunned yesterday.  They have no idea what to 
do now.  Where are the 6,000 Islamic fighters, they asked. 
Where are the Iraqi tanks?"  They vented anger on Saddam for 
"doing this to his people when he knew they could only end up 
humiliated by the Americans."  According to Samhoury, there 
was immediate speculation among professional association 
leaders that Saddam must be an "agent" for the USG. 
 
4. (C) On April 10 PolOff met with Fathallah Omrani, 
President of Jordan's textile workers union.  Omrani had just 
come from a morning coffee with some of his union members, 
and reiterated their view of the Iraq situation.  There was 
confusion and disappointment, he said, that Saddam didn't put 
up a bigger fight, that the US didn't suffer more for its 
"aggression."  He said that among the textile workers, the 
number one conspiracy theory is that Saddam made a "deal" 
with the USG and was given asylum and transport out of Iraq 
in return for the "surrender" of Iraqi forces. 
 
5.  (C) Many simply cannot believe that the "invaders" are 
being greeted with warmth by the Iraqis.  "How can they just 
walk into our cities and get received like that?" one young 
woman stammered.  Local media editorials are best described 
as bewildered and bitter (reftel A), with the Jordan Times 
editorial saying "Iraqis' relief at what is possibly the 
nearing end of both the war and the regime does not mean that 
this aggression was ever just or right, nor that a US 
occupation is welcomed." 
 
6. (C) Despite mixed, unclear emotions on the fall of Saddam, 
Jordanian feelings are crystal clear on the human costs of 
the war.  The local media continues to focus on the death of 
journalist Tarek Ayoub, noting his widow's "rejection" of a 
condolence message from CENTCOM.  The media is also now 
engrossed in daily reporting on the "nefarious" or "Zionist" 
background of Jay Garner and his "association" with Israeli 
PM Ariel Sharon.  One former MP told PolCouns April 10 that 
some of his campaign workers spun for him a conspiracy in 
which Garner's appointment is the "first step" in a "Zionist 
plot" to create "greater Israel from the Nile to the Tigris." 
 
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THE FEW PRAGMATISTS SEE OPPORTUNITY, VICTORY 
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7. (C) Omrani (para 3) said he was "very glad" Saddam was 
gone.  "I was, and still am a little bit, worried about the 
QIZ investment and my workers.  But things are definitely 
moving in the right direction now.  We need people in America 
and the west to look at Jordan on the map and not see it as a 
country between two raging battlefields, but instead as a 
peaceful, safe place to invest."  One small-scale Jordanian 
steel manufacturer emailed EconOff with a message of 
congratulations, and noted that he hoped Iraq would become 
"an oasis of democracy and prosperity in the region." 
8. (U) The Embassy also received extravagant bouquets of 
flowers from a group of local Iraqi INC representatives, 
thanking the US for liberating their country.  Note: today's 
floral bouquet score: USA 3, France 0.  End note. 
 
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U.S. NEEDS TO MOVE QUICKLY TO HELP IRAQIS 
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9.  (C) Senator Saed Hayel Surour and former MP Naif Mawla 
told PolCouns separately April 10 that Jordanian attention 
will quickly move away from thoughts of war.  The U.S., 
Surour argued, has 3-4 weeks to prove to Jordanians the good 
intent of the U.S. in Iraq.  Reopening schools, distributing 
food, and restoring electricity and water must be the top 
priorities of the U.S. 
 
10. (C) In addition, Surour and Mawla argued, the U.S. cannot 
be seen as "replacing one dictator with another."  It will be 
crucial for the U.S. to find Iraqi political figures to whom 
they can turn over the country.  Surour singled out INC 
leader Ahmed Chalabi as the kind of "corrupt" outside leader 
that could be seen as "being imposed on Iraq by the U.S." 
 
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AND PRESENT THE ROADMAP ALREADY 
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11. (C) Surour and Mawla both said the most important thing 
the U.S. could do to restore some trust would be to release 
the Quartet Roadmap immediately, then press Israel and the 
Palestinians to implement it.  "Liberating Palestine," Mawla 
declared, would be the perfect counterpart to "liberating 
Iraq." 
 
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COMMENT 
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12.  (C) After weeks of anti-USG rhetoric and predictions of 
U.S. defeat at the gates of Baghdad, many contacts are 
suffering from "wounded pride," are confused, and unsure how 
to interpret the recent events in "a proper Arab way."  Some, 
however, who were all along searching for the light at the 
end of the tunnel (reftel B), are clearheaded enough to see 
the opportunity of a new Iraq. 
 
13.  (C) We have, for the moment, gained the initiative.  The 
local pragmatists who predicted that Jordanians would "turn 
on Saddam" once it is clear he is finished appear to have 
been correct.  However, we need to work quickly to counter 
the local presumption of bad intentions, especially as 
regards the interim administration, humanitarian relief, and 
movement on the peace process. 
GNEHM