US embassy cable - 03NASSAU722

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NASSAU 000722 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, BF, SNAR, Bahamian Politics 
SUBJECT: HUBERT INGRAHAM A YEAR LATER - NO EXCUSES, NO 
APOLOGIES 
 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON Section Chief Brian Bachman, Reasons 1.5(b) and 
 (d) 
 
Summary 
 ------- 
 
1.  (C) POL/ECON section chief met with former Prime Minister 
Hubert Ingraham on April 8 for a wide-ranging discussion of 
his tenure in office and current Bahamian politics.  Ingraham 
freely gave his opinions about current political developments 
such as the upcoming Free National Movement (FNM) convention 
(thinks Tommy Turnquest will not be seriously challenged 
until next convention), Perry Christie's management style and 
character (says he's always been indecisive and lacks vision, 
but is a good man), Christie's Cabinet (thinks they are a 
collection of ambitious incompetents), the Progressive 
Liberal Party (PLP) government's legislative agenda 
(non-existent), and bilateral relations (hopes Embassy and 
Christie government can improve cooperation).  He also 
vigorously defended his record during his ten years in 
office, claiming to have no regrets.  Ingraham said he was 
unsurprised that the FNM lost last May, but only reluctantly 
agreed that he might share some of the blame for that loss. 
He said he was fully confident of his continued popularity 
and consistently dodged questions about his own political 
future.  End Summary. 
 
Out to Pasture? 
--------------- 
 
2.  (C) POL/ECON chief called on Ingraham at his Cable Beach 
office, which was relatively small but nicely appointed. 
Ingraham works there alone, with just a single employee, a 
part-time receptionist who left before the meeting concluded. 
 He did not seem to be terribly busy, as the phone only rang 
twice during an hour and half long conversation, and neither 
call seemed work-related.  His desk was near empty and his TV 
was on and tuned to CNN to watch war news.  Ingraham freely 
admitted that he was not very active in Parliament and didn't 
anticipate that he would become more active any time soon. 
He said he still considers himself an FNM, and will vote with 
the FNM block, but is taking no role in ongoing party 
politics.  When asked if he would complete his term or retire 
completely from politics, Ingraham said he hadn't given it 
much thought. 
 
Perry and Hubert 
---------------- 
 
3.  (C) Ingraham quickly warmed to the political discussion 
however, and his love for the game sparkled in his eyes as we 
covered a broad range of topics.  He told POL/ECON chief that 
he and Perry Christie remained good friends and said they 
talked by phone a couple of times a week.  Ingraham said that 
they didn't always talk politics, but didn't avoid the topic 
either, and said that he offered advice to Christie 
regularly.  He said that he believes Christie is a good man, 
and well-intentioned, but criticized his leadership style. 
Ingraham said "Perry has always been indecisive, and will 
always be indecisive.  It's just the way he is.  He can't 
change."  He also alleged that Christie had no real vision 
other than a general desire to improve social programs, and 
nothing he really wanted to accomplish.  Ingraham contrasted 
Christie with himself, saying he had come in with a definite 
agenda and moved decisively to accomplish it, whereas 
Christie "enjoys being Prime Minister" but doesn't really 
feel any urgency to get things done.  Ingraham also said that 
Christie is, however, head and shoulders above anyone else in 
the PLP, and their only real option as leader.  He is the 
only one with broad enough appeal to bring in swing voters, 
largely because he, unlike many other PLP politicians, is 
viewed as "trustworthy" and "solid".  Even FNMs Ingraham 
said, don't fear for the country with Christie in charge, as 
he is unlikely to do anything rash.  Combined with the fact 
that he loves the job, Ingraham sees Christie as firmly 
implanted in the PLP leadership and consequently, the PM's 
office.  "It would take dynamite to get him out of that 
seat", said Ingraham, when asked if he thought Christie would 
run for another term. 
 
A Sorry Bunch 
------------- 
 
4.  (C) Despite his generally complimentary words about 
Christie, Ingraham had nothing good to say about the rest of 
his government.  He gleefully discussed at length PLP 
missteps since coming into office, highlighting most of all 
the fact that they "have no legislative agenda."  Ingraham 
pointed out that the PLP Parliament has passed almost no 
legislation that hadn't been initially proposed by his 
government, and doesn't seem to be working on anything now. 
He also comprehensively criticized the PLP Cabinet, saying 
"Once you get past Perry, what have you got?"  Ingraham said 
that the Christie Cabinet was inexperienced, incompetent and 
politically unschooled.  He also said many of them harbor 
further political ambitions and have their own agendas, and 
shook his head at Christie's seeming inability to control 
them.  Ingraham said he "never would have tolerated such 
behavior" in his own Cabinet.  He sympathized with Christie, 
however, noting how, under the Westminster system, it is 
difficult to just remove a Cabinet Minister or discipline him 
effectively, as all it may do is create a political enemy who 
retains his seat in Parliament.  Ingraham acknowledged that 
this had never stopped him, but claimed, with a mischievous 
gleam in his eye, that that was "because I was always 
confident -- confident that I had the support of the people. 
Perry doesn't have that confidence."  In fact, Ingraham said 
he believed the PLP had squandered its mandate almost 
immediately and no longer enjoyed the support of the people, 
because of its inaction and political stumbles.  One 
political blunder he highlighted was the PLP' apparent 
hostility toward the civil service, whom they believe to be 
in bed with the FNM after ten years of FNM rule.  Ingraham 
said "They don't even realize that the public service 
overwhelmingly voted for them (the PLP) in the election, and 
now they're alienating this key block of swing voters." 
 
FNM Needs Unity 
--------------- 
 
5.  (C) Ingraham acknowledged that just because the PLP was 
losing support didn't mean that people were ready to turn 
back to the FNM.  He said that the FNM had a lot of work to 
do before it would be competitive politically again.  What 
was most needed, he said, was unity.  According to Ingraham, 
many of the FNM's wounds were self-inflicted, and he had 
harsh criticism for former ministers Algernon Allen and 
Tennyson Wells, who attacked the leadership process that saw 
them unsuccessfully challenge Tommy Turnquest, Ingraham's 
hand-picked successor and then complain bitterly in public 
about Ingraham's stacking the deck.  Ingraham vehemently (but 
unconvincingly) denied influencing the leadership process, 
and defended Turnquest as "the best man for the job at the 
time."  He did criticize Turnquest's decision to accept a 
celebratory party financed by a contractor doing business 
with his Ministry, saying it gave the PLP and Allen and Wells 
a convenient target.  Ingraham said it was an "unfortunate 
decision", because until then no one could say Tommy wasn't 
honest."  He thought it was very damaging to Tommy's chances 
in the election. 
 
6.  (C) Nonetheless, Ingraham predicted that Tommy would 
survive any leadership challenge in the upcoming May FNM 
convention.  In fact, he predicted that no serious challenge 
would emerge at this convention.  According to Ingraham, 
those most likely to challenge Tommy Turnquest would lie low 
at this convention, since they don't really have any desire 
to be the leader of an opposition party for the next four 
years, and would bring out their serious challenge at the 
next convention, which he predicted would be in another 18 
months, by which time the next election would already be in 
sight on the horizon.  Ingraham quickly and confidently 
rattled off who he believed the new FNM leadership team would 
be after the election: Turnquest as leader, former Minister 
of Industry and Development Zhivargo Laing as deputy leader, 
former Attorney General Carl Bethel as party chairman, and 
former legislators Johnley Ferguson and Darrin Cash to round 
out the leadership slate, a group he characterized as "young, 
energetic and talented."  With respect to Brent Symonette, 
who has publicly ruminated about challenging for the 
leadership, Ingraham dismissed his chances, but denied that 
Symonette's race (he is white) had anything to do with it. 
Rather, Ingraham said it was his personality and lack of 
appeal outside the bounds of his wealthy constituency.  In 
fact, he said the best thing that could happen would be for 
Symonette to challenge for the leadership, because he "would 
be beaten so soundly that it would shatter all his 
illusions."  Ingraham confidently predicted that the FNM 
would win the next election, saying Christie's PLP "already 
had the markings of a one term government." 
 
No Mistakes 
----------- 
 
7.  (C) When asked if he had any regrets from his ten years 
in office, or if he would do anything differently if given 
the opportunity, Ingraham quickly responded "Absolutely not!" 
 He said he was a contented man, and that he had accomplished 
virtually everything he set out to do.  On further 
reflection, he admitted that he wished that the FNM 
leadership transition had been handled better, but he 
deflected blame for that, saying that it should have been 
done earlier and smoother, but he was delayed by FNMs who 
kept urging him to put it off and trying to get him to run 
again.  With regard to the failed constitutional referendum, 
which many point to as a key factor in the FNM's electoral 
loss, Ingraham denied that it was a factor.  In fact, he 
said, he had already become convinced by January of 2002 that 
the FNM would lose the general election, and scheduled the 
referendum because he was confident that it would pass and 
would give the FNM momentum going into the election.  He 
admitted to being shocked when the PLP came out against the 
referendum, since they had all voted for the various 
amendments in Parliament, but refused to characterize it as a 
political miscalculation. Ingraham showed a glint of anger at 
the suggestion that some in the FNM blamed him for the 
electoral loss, and fired back.  He strongly defended his 
record and claimed that he was still the FNM's most popular 
politician.  He pointed out that he had won in 1992 and 1997 
by strong margins, and that it was only after he left the 
leadership that the FNM lost.  According to Ingraham, the FNM 
asked him to step away from the campaign not because he was 
unpopular, but because his popularity left Turnquest in his 
shadow.  Finally he did grudgingly admit that he might have 
to share some of the blame for the FNM loss. "I guess if I 
take credit for the victories I also have to take credit for 
the losses," Ingraham said, but added with fire in his voice, 
"And no one can deny that I was responsible for the victories 
in 1992 and 1997!" 
 
Bilateral Relations 
------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Ingraham also raised his concern with publicly 
reported spats between the Embassy and the PLP government. 
He offered no criticism of the Embassy, but said "I hope 
things are patched up and calm down.  We need a strong 
bilateral relationship."  He offered some mild criticism of 
the GOCB's handling of the bilateral relationship.  In 
particular, he obliquely criticized Christie by saying that 
under his government, ministers would not have been given as 
much leeway.  He also said he believed Foreign Minister 
Mitchell could have handled the controversy over the 
Ambassador's remarks at the Joint Task Force meeting in 
December better, and chalked it up to "inexperience and 
pride."  Ingraham acknowledged, that with the exception of 
what he termed  "the Defense Force allegations", none of the 
issues raised by the Ambassador were new or should have been 
a surprise.  In particular, he ruefully admitted that his own 
government had failed to fulfill its promise of several years 
to create a national drug control strategy, but said that it 
was his understanding that it had been "nearly done" when he 
left office. 
 
Cagey About the Future 
---------------------- 
 
9.  (C) When asked about his own political future, Ingraham, 
dodged artfully.  He said that he had only run for MP this 
last election at the urging of the party, and considers 
himself retired.  Ingraham claimed that he had no intention 
of defending his seat in 2007, and does not intend to take an 
active role in the upcoming FNM convention.  When asked 
directly if he would ever consider reentering politics, 
Ingraham dodged the question completely.  He did admit that 
various people within the FNM continued to push him to retake 
the leadership, however, and refused several clear 
opportunities to say he was definitely not interested. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) Supremely self-confident, unapologetic and, dare we 
say, arrogant as ever, Ingraham still has a forceful and 
formidable presence.  Currently inactive in Parliament and 
largely out of the public view, he obviously is still keeping 
a close eye on political events both inside and outside the 
party, and we have little doubt that he still has influence 
within the FNM if he chooses to use it.  Ingraham is still a 
relatively young man for a politician, and seems to have 
little desire to return to his former trade (the law).  If 
the Christie government continues to struggle against a weak 
economy and the widespread perception that it is inactive, 
and Bahamian voters begin to feel a little nostalgia for the 
strong hand on the tiller, we wouldn't be surprised if Hubert 
Ingraham reemerges as a potential "savior" for his party and 
The Bahamas.  End Comment. 
 
 
BLANKENSHIP