US embassy cable - 03ABUJA661

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SPECTRE OF VIOLENCE OVER PLATEAU ELECTIONS 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Residents in Plateau State are fearful 
that April 12 and 19 elections will generate violence. 
Disappointed with incumbent PDP Governor Joshua Dariye, 
many are looking to the ANPP and AD candidates for a 
change.  The local elite, political power brokers, workers 
and a disaffected faction of the PDP are all working 
against a Dariye administration widely viewed as 
ineffective and incompetent.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C)  With gubernatorial races set for April 19, Plateau 
residents are worried that a tight race could spark 
violence.  Governor Joshua Dariye is a sub-par politician 
whose administration of the state's affairs leaves much to 
be desired.  He has been combative, refusing to reach out 
to many established personalities and traditional rulers. 
In a state with a pluralistic demography and a strong 
Muslim minority, he has fueled ethnic/religious animosity 
by his strident Christianity.  Although Dariye is weak, he 
could still eke by.  Dariye has been an Obasanjo 
cheerleader and although Obasanjo realizes Dariye's 
shortcomings, the President has begrudgingly decided to 
support the Governor.  PDP National Chairman Audu Ogbeh 
told the Ambassador recently that Dariye was "on his knees" 
in his office pleading for his re-nomination.  The ANPP and 
the AD candidates' inability to present a united anti- 
Dariye front could open the door to his narrow victory. 
 
 
3.  (C)  The ANPP's Jonah Jang, a retired Air Force 
officer, is supported by many retired general officers who 
call Plateau home.  Jang, an ethnic Birom, also has the 
support of ANPP's zonal vice-president and former Abacha 
right-hand retired General Jeremiah Useni.  The AD's 
Damishi Sango, a former Minister of Sports, narrowly lost 
the PDP nomination to Dariye in 1999.  At that time, he 
showed party loyalty by encouraging his supporters to back 
Dariye.  But since then, Sango had fallen out with both 
Obasanjo and Dariye.  Finding the grass greener in the AD, 
Sango feels he can win back what he narrowly lost in 1999. 
Plateau political broker and former PDP national chairman 
Solomon Lar dislikes Dariye and is apparently supporting 
Sango. 
 
 
4.  (U)  Complaints about the current administration are 
widespread.  State employees have not been paid for months; 
many resort to hiring out their personal vehicles for 
commercial activities in order to survive.  To make matters 
worse, Dariye clumsily stated last year that the "payment 
of salaries is not a priority of my administration."  This 
was not a statement that endeared the Governor to those who 
vote.  Critics claim that no single state or federal 
project instituted by Dariye has been commissioned during 
his term of office.  With its increased population, the 
capital city Jos has a water problem that Dariye has been 
unable to conquer or suggest a plausible solution. 
 
 
5.  (C)  Dariye's unpopularity is such that he actually may 
be hurting Obasanjo's prospects in Plateau.  During a 
recent campaign visit, ANPP Presidential Candidate 
Muhammadu Buhari arrived by road from neighboring Bauchi 
state and encountered crowds on the way to Jos.  Dariye's 
security operatives intercepted the motorcade at the edge 
of town and tried to divert the vehicles away from 
downtown.  According to witnesses, the crowd lifted 
Buhari's Land Rover and carried it over the roadblocks.  At 
this point, the security forces relented and Buhari's 
entourage was allowed to pass through central Jos, where 
the streets were lined with thousands of onlookers. 
 
 
6.  (C)  Allegations of Dariye's efforts to stack the 
elections in his favor abound.  Detractors claim he has 
allegedly bribed many INEC officials and security agents to 
ensure his victory on election day.  One INEC official was 
reportedly removed from Plateau state for refusing to 
cooperate.  Opponents claim that Dariye has also vetted the 
voters lists, removing names of his opponents' supporters. 
ANPP officials claim that Dariye was behind an effort to 
remove other candidates' names from the voters list, 
rendering them ineligible.  While that failed, questions 
about the voters list remain. 
 
 
7.  (C)  COMMENT:  In the past, Plateau State had been a 
model of ethnic and religious diversity, social tolerance 
and harmony.  In the last two years, Plateau and its 
capital, Jos, have become synonymous with communal 
violence.  Governor Dariye has been ineffectual in 
arresting this descent and may be a contributing factor to 
his state's demise.  Because of his poor track record, his 
re-election is far from assured.  He may also have saddled 
President Obasanjo with many of his troubles in Plateau. 
Support for Buhari signifies that victory in Plateau is not 
guaranteed for Obasanjo.  However, Obasanjo is banking on 
the Christian majority sticking with him, support from the 
AD, and the power of incumbency to prevail. 
JETER