US embassy cable - 03ABUJA660

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000660 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: A SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B & 
D). 
 
 
1.  (C)  Poloff completed a pre-election trip toigeria's 
northeast region, the home of incumbent Vice President 
Atiku Abubakar and a key to President Obasanjo's re- 
election bidPoloff found crumbling infrastructure, 
pessimism about the elections and worried Obasanjo-Atiku 
campaign officials.  Political violence has occurred in the 
area, with the worst conflicts in Adamawa.  INEC's pre- 
election groundwork was minimal; the sense was that the 
elections would produce an Obasanjo victory, whether he 
actually won or not. 
 
 
ADAMAWA 
------- 
 
 
2.  (C)  Adamawa State, the home of Vice-President Atiku 
Abubakar, is an important electoral battleground.  The 
incumbent governor, Boni Haruna, facing his first ever 
election, might lose.  (NOTE:  Haruna assumed the 
governor's office when Atiku vacated it after being 
selected as Obasanjo's running mate.  END NOTE.)  Most 
local observers rank Atiku's election in 1999 as suspect, 
with his victory the result of manipulating the vote count. 
The man he beat, Bala Takaya, is the AD candidate this 
time.  The ANPP candidate is an established, somewhat 
popular politician, Adamu Mu'azu Modibbo.  Adding to Boni's 
difficulties, Bala hails from the same hometown.  But 
Boni's heaviest baggage has been his non-performance. 
Roads are decaying, electrical and water supplies are 
sporadic; the state government has been remiss in paying 
salaries on time.  The state paid two months of arrears to 
pensioners and bureaucrats last week, leaving them only six 
months behind.  The roads are so bad, according to one PDP 
member, that Haruna and the Vice President took a 
helicopter to a town about 150 km. away from the capital 
last week to "avoid pieces of the road being tossed at 
them" by residents along the route. 
 
 
BAUCHI 
------ 
 
 
3.  (C)  ANPP presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari and 
current Vice-President Atiku held campaign rallies in 
Bauchi in the past week.  Buhari attracted thousands of 
supporters on arrival at the local airport.  According to 
one man who attended the rally, Buhari was late due to the 
throng blocking the route from the airport to the stadium, 
a scene allegedly repeated at most Buhari campaign 
whistlestops throughout the north and northern middlebelt. 
In contrast, members of Atiku's campaign entourage 
complained to Poloff that the Obasanjo-Atiku ticket was a 
hard sell.  "We have to pay local government chairmen to 
hire busloads of people to attend rallies," one lamented. 
Further, Bauchi's traditional rulers refused to attend the 
Atiku rally, declining due to "illness."  The PDP governor 
of Bauchi Mu'azu faces serious opposition from an ANPP 
candidate backed by the traditional rulers and the 
conservative elements of the Bauchi communities.  His 
detractors claim that he is an unpopular candidate who 
"stole" the 1999 elections.  His supporters say he is 
popular on the ground, and that the assets of incumbency 
combined with a solid track record of community 
achievements will allow him to prevail. 
 
 
BORNO 
----- 
 
 
4.  (C)  Buhari's rally in Maiduguri, capital of Borno 
state, was one of the few Buhari events which gained some 
media attention.  According to a PDP activist in Borno, the 
stadium was overflowing and en route to the city, Buhari 
was stopped by cheering reporters.  Incumbent Governor Mala 
Kachalla, who jumped to the AD after losing the ANPP 
nomination, faces a serious challenge by both the PDP and 
ANPP candidates.  In spite of lapses in paying salaries and 
neglect of the development of vast areas of the state, 
traditional and conservative elements in Borno support him, 
but that may not be enough to carry the day. 
 
 
GOMBE 
----- 
 
 
5.  (C)  When Obasanjo arrived in Gombe for a campaign 
appearance, he found a party in disarray.  According to a 
PDP senator, virtually the entire PDP membership has moved 
to the ANPP.  Both Buhari and Atiku appeared there, with 
tales similar to those from Bauchi being repeated.  While 
the state has a larger Christian population than some of 
its neighbors, Buhari seems to transcend the religious 
divide. 
 
 
YOBE AND TARABA 
--------------- 
 
 
6.  (C)  Yobe and Taraba states comprise the northern and 
southern extremes of the Northeast.  In Yobe, the ANPP 
holds the cards, with an incumbent governor and a 
conservative populace.  PDP candidates complained of 
harassment and attacks, but compared to other areas, these 
are of minor scale.  In Taraba, where the religious divide 
is most evident, Buhari received an outpouring of support 
on his visits to the state.  The incumbent PDP governor is 
increasingly isolated from the national party and is 
vulnerable; however, opposition candidates are not very 
attractive. 
 
 
COMMON THEMES 
------------- 
 
 
7.  (C)  Violence is present throughout the area, with the 
worst conflicts occurring in Adamawa.  Most common are 
localized clashes between PDP and ANPP supporters and 
attacks on motorcades.  In Adamawa, the grandson of the 
Vice-President's father-in-law was arrested on the orders 
of the incumbent governor for alleged "anti-government 
activities;" he was caught distributing ANPP posters in the 
capital of Yola.  Throughout the region, INEC has yet to 
complete preparations for displaying a voters list or a 
candidates list.  While everyone assumes that the polling 
places will be the same as the September registration 
sites, much concern remains about last minute 
substitutions. 
 
 
8.  (C)  COMMENT: Regardless of party, there is widespread 
disenchantment with incumbent office holders at all levels. 
However, most people believe election rigging is inherent 
in the political culture and note manipulation will keep 
far more incumbents in office than actually deserve to 
return.  On the presidential election, Obasanjo and Atiku 
might not attract the crowds that Buhari has, but they have 
the assets of incumbency and some real support as well. 
However, it appears that Buhari has captured the momentum 
in this region and will carry it into election day.  This 
represents a reversal of fortune from several months ago. 
Immediately after the PDP and ANPP party conventions in 
January, Obasanjo would likely have carried the region. 
Now, a growing number of northeasterners believe that the 
only way Obasanjo can take the region is by tampering with 
the vote count. 
 
 
JETER