US embassy cable - 03ABUJA658

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958 DECL: 03/30/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, EAID, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTION COMMISSION CHAIRMAN SAYS 
EVERYTHING'S ON SCHEDULE 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter, reason 1.5 (b). 
 
 
1.  (C) Summary: During a March 12 meeting, Independent 
National Election Commission (INEC) Chairman Abel Guobadia 
told Ambassador Jeter that INEC preparations were on 
schedule; INEC would be ready to conduct elections in April 
and a postponement was not contemplated. To demonstrate 
INEC's readiness, Guobadia said INEC had finalized 90% of 
the voters list and was ahead of schedule on ordering 
ballot boxes and ballot papers. However, he claimed INEC 
needed an additional appropriation of 12 billion Naira (USG 
approximately 920 million) for election day expenses 
(travel expenses, workers stipends, etc.) Guobadia's 
picture of readiness contrasted with one painted by 
opposition political parties. They claim INEC is bumbling 
and highly partisan; they also say the electoral fix is on. 
The truth may lie somewhere between.  INEC has exerted 
itself more than the suspicious opposition parties will 
acknowledge; however, its performance in many areas, 
especially voter registration, has been substandard.  Much 
of the criticism of INEC continues to be legitimate even at 
this late stage. Despite Guobadia's assurances, INEC has 
must make a gigantic, late hour push before it is ready. 
End Summary. 
 
 
2. (C) During a March 12 meeting with INEC Chairman 
Guobadia, Ambassador underscored the importance of 
successful elections. Nigeria would take a momentous step 
in the right direction by holding its first successful 
elections under civilian government. INEC would have won 
itself an enviable place when the history of this period is 
written, the Ambassador stressed. The entire world is 
watching and hoping.  He added that Nigeria likewise owed a 
special duty to the sub-region, a region where its 
leadership was preeminent and much needed.  Noting that 
West Africa had become an increasingly troubled 
neighborhood, Jeter emphasized that credible elections 
could be a democratic fillip to Nigeria's neighbors. 
Conversely, poor elections could dash the hopes of 
democracy elsewhere in the region, and further afield on 
the continent.  Failed elections would inevitably spark 
greater unrest and violence at home. 
 
 
3. (C) Ambassador Jeter informed Guobadia that he had 
hosted a March 11 meeting with political party leaders. 
All the parties in attendance uniformly criticized INEC's 
election management.  He suggested that INEC might consider 
calling a special meeting of political party chairmen along 
with the police, State Security Services (SSS) and the 
Police Service Commission (PSC) to discuss the parties' 
concerns about electoral preparations and security.  Jeter 
added that such a meeting could address numerous doubts and 
misgivings the parties had about INEC.  Moreover, the 
parties seemed keenly interested in such a meeting, the 
Ambassador said. 
 
 
4. (C) Chairman Guobadia responded that INEC stood ready to 
meet the parties. In fact, he had hosted such a meeting 
earlier that day but only 12 of the 30 parties attended. 
At the previous regular meeting with the parties a few 
weeks before, only four parties showed, the Chairman 
asserted. (Comment: Guobadia's description of party 
attendance was accurate.  After his meeting with Ambassador 
Jeter, Guobadia met party leaders on March 17 to discuss 
the anti-violence Code of Conduct. At the March 17 
unveiling of the Code, only nine parties attended the 
session and signed the instrument. The ruling PDP and ANPP, 
the two largest parties, failed to attend. During the March 
19 special elections stakeholders meeting called by the 
President, the remaining parties vowed their assent and all 
but four have signed. Unfortunately, the PDP and ANPP have 
yet to sign due to a feud over which one should go first. 
End Comment.) 
 
 
5.  (U) Guobadia continued that INEC regularly conferred 
with the Police, PSC and SSS regarding election day 
security, particularly for INEC personnel and sensitive 
election material such as ballots, ballot boxes and vote 
tabulation sheets. He explained that the National Police 
force had only 90,000 active officers, meaning a deployment 
of less than one officer for each of the 120,000 polling 
stations nationwide. To address the obvious gap, help would 
be needed from the SSS and other security related agencies. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Voter's Registration - Is The Cup Half Full Or Half Empty? 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
 
6.  (C) On the all important issue of voter registration, 
The Chairman claimed INEC was 90% finished with finalizing 
the voters rolls. He claimed that most states had begun to 
display the list. He added that 10% of the total voter 
applications were discarded for being fraudulent. 
 
 
7.  (C) Comment: Guobadia's portrayal of voter's 
registration was inaccurate almost to the point of 
dissimulation. According to our best evidence, lists were 
displayed in only a few states and only a few areas in 
those states. INEC has yet to finalize and display the 
voters list in every state. INEC announced subsequent to 
this meeting with the Ambassador that the lists would be 
displayed and voters cards made available the second week 
in April, just a few days before the April 12 National 
Assembly elections. This probably will not provide 
sufficient time for the statutorily required period for the 
public to raise objections to the list. Moreover, INEC had 
announced in early March that the claims period was March 
11-12, although the lists were not ready for the vast 
majority of voters to review. The litany of grievances with 
the registration process has caused the political parties 
and much of the public to believe that INEC has already 
significantly undermined the election and to suspect that 
INEC will not be prepared to handle election logistics. End 
Comment) 
 
 
8. (C) Guobadia acknowledged that INEC's late release of 
the voters rolls had not gone unchallenged.  The National 
Democratic Party (NPD) had filed suit claiming INEC had 
abrogated the electoral law by not publicizing the voters 
lists at least 60 days before the April elections 
commenced.  In a legal interpretation not previously heard 
from INEC, the Chairman contended the law simply required 
INEC to have concluded the actual process of receiving 
registration applications from the voters 60 days prior to 
the election.  INEC's contention was that the 60-day 
requirement did not refer to displaying the voters roll. 
(Comment: This interpretation is novel and expectant. 
Simply put, INEC has not published the rolls. It needs to 
defend itself from charges of flouting the law.  This new, 
facile interpretation will further diminish INEC 
credibility; INEC's original timetable had scheduled the 
publication of the voters roll prior to February in 
observance of the 60 day requirement.  End Comment.) 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
The Ballots Are Coming, The Ballots Are Coming! 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
9. (C) On the positive side, Guobadia announced that the 
delivery of ballot paper and ballot boxes was on schedule, 
in fact, he claimed that vendor had wanted to send ballots 
and boxes ahead of time.  Containers of ballot paper had 
already been delivered but Guobadia had to inform his 
suppliers in Canada, United Kingdom and Germany to halt 
delivery as INEC lacked sufficient warehouse space. 
Guobadia did not want the headache of procuring additional 
storage space and he feared tampering if too many ballots 
were in Nigeria too early.  Guobadia remarked that the 
ballot papers would be significantly bulkier than the 1999 
version -- due to the increased number of parties this 
time.  Consequently, new boxes, manufactured in China, with 
larger openings would replace the ones used in 1999. 
 
 
----------------------------- 
I Need Money For Election Day 
----------------------------- 
 
 
10. (C) While stating that funding had been sufficient to 
meet pre-election day needs, Guobadia warned INEC required 
another 12 billion Naira for election day expenses, four 
billion for each of the three contests.  (April 12 - 
National Assembly, April 19 - Presidential and 
gubernatorial, April 26 - possible run-off.) Major election 
day expenses Guobadia mentioned were stipends and 
transportation costs for several hundred thousand poll 
workers, transport of material to and from polling stations 
and logistical support at vote tabulation centers. 
Guobadia expressed concern whether INEC would have 
sufficiently qualified administrators to manage vote 
tabulation centers properly.  These collation centers were 
where the real problems would arise.  "Here is where a vote 
of 1,000 can become 10,000," he contended.  Because of the 
need for non-partisan, qualified managers at these sites, 
INEC has resorted to a special call to the private sector 
and retired senior civil servants to staff these crucial 
positions on election day. (Note: Newspapers report that 
INEC has received over 9 billion Naira from FY 03 
appropriations to help meet these expenses.) 
 
 
-------- 
Monitors 
-------- 
 
 
11.  (C) Guobadia stated the Foreign Ministry not INEC 
would vet the names of the foreign monitors.  INEC's role 
was limited to providing badges once the MFA had approved 
the names. Regarding domestic monitors, INEC had the 
primary responsibility to vet and clear these individuals. 
INEC's main concern, in vetting the monitors, was that they 
be non-partisan.  He added that domestic monitors would not 
have to register at INEC's national headquarters but could 
obtain accreditation at the various state headquarters. 
(Comment:  Visiting Carter Center representatives expressed 
fears about INEC's capacity to register and accredit the 
expected 20,000-30,000 monitors.  Ambassador arranged a 
meeting for them with Guobadia where they proposed that 
INEC simply register the organizations and provide them 
with numbered badges corresponding to the number of 
observers each organization planned to field.  Guobadia 
claimed he liked the idea, but we are uncertain if it was 
implemented.  End Comment.) 
 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
 
12.  (C) Guobadia put his best foot forward but the road is 
long and the destination cannot be reached with only one or 
two steps.  INEC is scrambling to be minimally ready for 
the April 12 National Assembly election.  The National 
Assembly contests, in and of themselves, have not elicited 
much public interest; however, most people are interested 
or at least curious not because of the contests themselves 
but because the April 12 elections may provide INEC a dry- 
run for the big test -- the Presidential and Gubernatorial 
elections on April 19.   Thus, the quality of the National 
Assembly will greatly influence perceptions going into the 
Presidential contest. At this late date, INEC can do little 
to improve voter registration.  However, INEC may be 
forgiven many of its pre-election lapses if it is seen as 
conducting the balloting and the vote tabulation as a 
competent neutral agent.  This achievement is still within 
INEC's reach but only if the Commission exerts itself 
mightily during the last waning days. 
 
 
JETER