US embassy cable - 03RANGOON447

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000447 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, BM 
SUBJECT: SUCCESSION ISSUES 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez.  Reason: 1.5 (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: There are no laws or rules governing 
succession within the SPDC in Burma.  Nevertheless, Than 
Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt have begun to line up 
successors, including in particular Lieutenant Generals Thura 
Shwe Mann, Soe Win and Tin Aung Myint Oo.  These are the 
three youngest members of the SPDC but apparently they 
already enjoy more of Than Shwe's confidence than any of the 
other officers on the Council.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) The recent illness of the SPDC's No. 2, General Maung 
Aye, has focussed attention on how the SPDC will deal with a 
vacancy in one of its top three spots.  It has only dealt 
with such a problem once -- in 1993, when a mentally ill 
General Saw Maung was bumped aside in favor of his Deputy 
Than Shwe.  Since then the SPDC has twice purged lower 
ranking members of the council (in 1997 and 2001), and 
replaced Secretary 2 Tin Oo, who was killed in a helicopter 
crash, but has never touched the senior triumvirate of Than 
Shwe, Maung Aye, and Khin Nyunt. 
 
3. (C) There are reasons for this.  Most obviously, there is 
no law nor any rules governing succession at the top.  Senior 
General Than Shwe, as Commander in Chief of Defense Services 
and Prime Minister, can relieve or retire anyone below him in 
either the military or the government; no one can touch him, 
however.  There are no fixed terms of office, fixed 
retirement ages, or periodic votes within the SPDC regarding 
its own leadership.  So long as Than Shwe is able and willing 
to serve, and to serve in partnership with Maung Aye and 
Secretary 1 Khin Nyunt, all three will stay. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
The SPDC 
 
4. (C) Secondly, there is now a huge gap between the top 
three and all the other members of the SPDC.  In that regard, 
the SPDC is a very different animal from its predecessor, the 
State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). SLORC was a 
college of near equal viceroys, with most members having not 
only seats on the council, but also individual ministerial 
portfolios and/or regional military commands.  In contrast, 
the 10 that now serve with the top 3 on the SPDC have little 
independent power or authority.  They include a chief of 
staff (Thura Shwe Mann), four aging special operations 
commanders, and five staff positions (including the Adjutant 
General, the Quartermaster General, and DGs for military 
training, defense industries, and air defense).  None of the 
10, however, has any direct command of combat troops or 
direct authority in local affairs.  Responsibilities in these 
areas are now largely left to the regional commanders, none 
of whom have seats on the SPDC.  Similarly, none of the 10 
hold any ministerial positions.  While most of Burma's 32 
ministries are still headed by active duty military officers, 
none of those ministers (with the exception of Prime Minister 
Than Shwe) sit on the SPDC. 
 
5. (C) In short, in Burma now, we are not dealing with a gang 
of thirteen.  We are dealing with a gang of three.  With 
perhaps three exceptions, the other ten on the SPDC are there 
largely as padding to keep the regional military commanders 
at some distance from the centers of national authority.  In 
one sense, this is simply insurance against a coup; in 
another, it is a natural separation of powers that 
effectively leaves only those at the very top in a position 
to direct the Army, the intelligence services and the 
government. 
 
6. (C) It also leaves succession issues entirely in the hands 
of the top 3.  With power now divided as it is, no one else 
in the SPDC, the government, or the regional commands is 
really in a position to influence that process.  Than Shwe 
and company will serve as long as they want and will choose 
their own successors when they leave. 
 
The Next Generation 
 
7. (C)  Right now, those designated successors appear to be 
the youngest members of the SPDC: Army Chief of Staff Thura 
Shwe Mann, the newly appointed Secretary 2 Soe Win, and, 
possibly, Quartermaster General Tin Aung Myint Oo.  All three 
are Lieutenant Generals, but their Burmese Commission Numbers 
(which indicate the dates of their commissions) and Defense 
Service Academy class numbers (11 and 12) suggest that all 
three entered the service years after their colleagues on the 
SPDC.  Thura Shwe Mann, in particular, is both a favorite of 
Than Shwe and an officer with a distinguished combat record. 
He is also the fourth ranking member of the SPDC and the only 
member of the military other than Than Shwe and Maung Aye 
with a complete view of the Army's operations.  Should Maung 
Aye die or step up into Than Shwe's position, then Thura Shwe 
Mann would likely take over as Commander in Chief of the 
Army.  Soe Win similarly would likely take over as Secretary 
1, if Khin Nyunt were to move up or step aside.  He is the 
least known of the three, but served as rector at the 
University for the Development of National Races in the 
mid-1990s and may have a reputation for being able to work 
with the ethnic minorities.  As for Quartermaster General Tin 
Aung Myint Oo, he simply seems to be a man with a future.  He 
has been picked by Than Shwe to coordinate the government's 
response to the current banking crisis and could step up into 
more general responsibilities for the economy, if he's 
successful and the SPDC restructures to create an independent 
position with responsibilities for economic affairs.  Right 
now, Maung Aye (the Chairman of the Trade Policy Committee) 
handles both economic and military affairs, while Khin Nyunt 
takes care of political issues. 
 
Potential Problems 
 
8. (C) This may all change as time goes on, of course.  SPDC 
members have a way of disgracing themselves (as in the case 
of former Secretary 3 Win Myint) and there really is no 
reason to believe that the most recently designated 
successors will be any more immune to the temptations of 
power than their predecessors have been.  Barring any such 
untoward events, however, the succession probably will run 
from Than Shwe to Maung Aye to Khin Nyunt, and then on to 
Thura Shwe Mann, Soe Win, and possibly Tin Aung Myint Oo. 
 
9. (C) In fact, in the entire succession, there is probably 
only one tricky issue, which involves handling Khin Nyunt and 
the position of Army Commander in Chief, if and when Maung 
Aye moves up or out.  As noted above, Lieutenant General 
Thura Shwe Mann is the logical choice to step in as Army 
Commander in Chief, when Maung Aye moves on.  However, he 
can't command Khin Nyunt, who is now the Army's only full 
general.  At the same time, Khin Nyunt would have trouble 
taking over as Army Commander in Chief himself, for two 
reasons.  First, Khin Nyunt's specialty is military 
intelligence; he has never held a combat command.  Secondly, 
he is an OTS graduate -- essentially the product of an ROTC 
program.  While this is not necessarily a problem for 
officers seeking senior ranks in the Burmese Army (Than Shwe 
himself is an OTS graduate), it is enough, when taken in 
conjunction with his lack of combat command experience, to 
raise questions as to whether the Army would accept him as 
their Chief. 
 
10. (C) This problem can be handled in a variety of ways, but 
our guess is that, when the time comes, the SPDC will simply 
split Maung Aye's current responsibilities, making Khin Nyunt 
Deputy Commander in Chief of Defense Services and No. 2 in 
the SPDC, while Thura Shwe Mann steps up to be Commander in 
Chief of the Army and No. 3 in the hierarchy.  That would 
keep ranks in order within the SPDC while still allowing the 
Army to be commanded by a man with combat experience. 
 
11. (C) In short, for all the risks that can surround any 
transition within a dictatorship, the SPDC's top three 
probably have the problem as well under control as could be 
expected. They've basically found the men they want to use 
and while there are potential problems out there, there are 
also potential solutions that will avoid pointless rivalries. 
 This will all have to be tested when the time comes, but for 
now, the system appears strong and flexible enough to survive 
the loss of any one of the three at the top. 
Martinez