US embassy cable - 95ZAGREB1763

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE 
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  01763  01 OF 03  031853Z 
BAKU FOR DCM FINN 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010 
TAGS: War Crimes 
SUBJECT:  UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES 
          CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 
          MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER 
 
REF: ZAGREB 175 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
2. FONMIN GRANIC DETAILED THE SUCCESS OF THE CROATIAN 
FORCES TO THE DIP CORPS ON MAY 3.  HE ANNOUNCED A 
"CEASEFIRE" HAD BEEN AGREED WITH THE SERBS, WHICH HE HOPED 
WOULD END THE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB.  (NOTE: OUR FOLLOW UP 
CONTACTS WITH THE UN INDICATE THAT GRANIC MAY HAVE SPOKEN 
TOO SOON IN ANNOUNCING A CEASEFIRE, IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY 
AN AGREEMENT FOR THE EVACUATION OF SERBS FROM A POCKET IN 
THE NORTH OF THE SECTOR.)  THE GOC HAD DECIDED NOT TO 
RETALIATE FOR THE MISSILE ATTACKS OF MAY 2 AND 3, BUT 
FURTHER ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE A RESPONSE.  PRESIDENT 
TUDJMAN HAD DECIDED THAT SECTOR WEST WOULD BECOME AN 
EXAMPLE OF HOW TERRITORY COULD BE SUCCESSFULLY 
REINTEGRATED AND THAT COEXISTENCE OF SERB AND CROAT WAS 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  01763  01 OF 03  031853Z 
POSSIBLE, WITH FULL CIVIL RIGHTS FOR ALL CROATIAN SERBS. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
3. FOREIGN MINISTER GRANIC MET WITH THE ENTIRE ZAGREB 
DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MAY 3 AT 1600.  HE SAID THAT THE GOC 
HAD ACHIEVED ITS OBJECTIVES IN SECTOR WEST, WHICH WERE: 1) 
TO REOPEN THE HIGHWAY UNDER CONDITIONS PERMITTING ITS SAFE 
OPERATION, AND 2) SEVER THE ROUTE BY WHICH THE BOSNIAN 
SERBS COULD OFFER SUPPORT TO THE "RSK."  THE BOSNIAN SERBS 
HAD ATTEMPTED "UNSUCCESSFULLY" TO OFFER SUPPORT TO THE 
KRAJINA SERBS ON TWO OCCASIONS (NFI). 
 
4.  GRANIC STRESSED THAT THE CROATIANS HAD ACTED TO AVOID 
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES; THE TOWN OF OKUCANI WAS ISOLATED, BUT 
IN A WAY WHICH PERMITTED THOSE IN THE POPULATION WHO 
WANTED TO LEAVE A WAY OUT.  THE SERBS WERE CLAIMING THAT 
5000 CIVILIANS HAD FLED THE SECTOR DURING THE ATTACK; THE 
GOC BELIEVED THE NUMBER TO BE CLOSER TO UNHCR'S ESTIMATE 
OF 2500 PEOPLE.  THE ONLY PIECE OF TERRITORY WHICH THE GOC 
DID NOT YET CONTROL WAS A POCKET OF TERRITORY NORTH OF THE 
HIGHWAY, BETWEEN OKUCANI AND PAKRAC.  THE SERBS SAID IT 
CONTAINED 600 SOLDIERS AND 3000 CIVILIANS, BUT THE GOC 
COULD NOT CONFIRM THOSE NUMBERS.  AN AGREEMENT HAD BEEN 
REACHED BY DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC ON MAY 2 THAT 
THOSE AMONG THAT GROUP WHO WISHED TO LEAVE FOR BOSNIAN 
SERB HELD TERRITORY COULD DO SO UNDER UN AUSPICES.  THE 
GOC HAD PROMISED TO ALL WHO CHOOSE TO STAY THAT THEY WOULD 
HAVE FULL CIVIL RIGHTS AND THEIR WOULD BE A COMPLETE 
AMNESTY FOR ALL WHO TURNED IN THEIR ARMS, EXCEPT FOR THOSE 
GUILTY OF WAR CRIMES. 
 
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PAGE 04        ZAGREB  01763  01 OF 03  031853Z 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT REACHED AT 1630 MAY 3 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
5. SHORTLY INTO THE MEETING, GRANIC WAS CALLED AWAY FOR A 
PHONE CALL WITH GOC PRESIDENTIAL CHIEF OF STAFF HRVOJE 
SARINIC.  GRANIC RETURNED TO REPORT THAT SARINIC HAD 
REACHED A "CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES" WITH THE KRAJINA 
SERBS, WITH THE MEDIATION OF UN SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE 
AKASHI.  HE THEN PASSED AROUND A COPY OF THE FOUR- 
PARAGRAPH AGREEMENT (COPY FAXED TO EUR/SCE).  THE 
AGREEMENT STATED THAT "THERE WILL BE A TOTAL CESSATION OF 
HOSTILITIES IN SECTOR WEST (WESTERN SLAVONIA) AND 
ELSEWHERE FROM 1700 HOURS 3 MAY 1995" AND SAID ALL WHO 
WISH TO LEAVE SECTOR WEST COULD DO SO UNDER UN 
"SURVEILLANCE."  GRANIC SAID THAT SARINIC HAD AGREED 
TO 
THE TERMS FROM THE CROATIAN SIDE.  HE WAS UNSURE WHO HAD 
AGREED FROM THE KRAJINA SERB SIDE.  GRANIC NOTED THAT THE 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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PAGE 01        ZAGREB  01763  02 OF 03  031854Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  OASY-00  TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-10    L-01     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PM-00    P-01 
      SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    SNIS-00  NISC-01  PMB-00     /017W 
                  ------------------C1D7F4  031854Z /38 
O 031949Z MAY 95 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5643 
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL MUNICH 
USLO SKOPJE 
AMEMBASSY BAKU 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// 
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// 
NATO EU COLLECTIVE 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21// 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 
DIA WASHDC 
USMISSION GENEVA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE 
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  01763  02 OF 03  031854Z 
BAKU FOR DCM FINN 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010 
TAGS:  MOPS HR UN 
SUBJECT:  UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES 
          CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 
          MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER 
 
GOC HAD BEEN IN CONTACT WITH BELGRADE ON MAY 3 "AT THE 
HIGHEST LEVELS" BOTH DIRECTLY AND VIA THE UN.  THE GOC 
BELIEVED THAT BELGRADE HAD WEIGHED IN WITH KNIN IN FAVOR 
OF THE CEASEFIRE. 
 
6. GRANIC EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT THE CESSATION OF 
HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT WOULD MEAN THE END TO THE ROCKET 
ATTACKS ON ZAGREB, ALTHOUGH HE NOTED THAT THERE WERE "NO 
GUARANTEES." 
 
7. COMMENT:  WHEN WE CHECKED WITH THE UN CIVIL AFFAIRS 
COORDINATOR IN KNIN, WE WERE TOLD THE CESSATION OF 
HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT HAD BEEN NEGOTIATED ON THE SERB SIDE 
BY "PRIME MINISTER" MIKELIC; MARTIC'S CHIEF OF STAFF, 
ILIJA PRIJIC; AND MILITARY "CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR.  THE 
WITHDRAWAL OF THE SERBS FROM THE PAKRAC POCKET WAS 
SCHEDULED TO OCCUR AT 0900 HOURS LOCAL ON MAY 4. MIKELIC, 
PRIJIC AND LONCAR HAD ALSO SIGNED A TEXT OF A CEASEFIRE 
AGREEMENT WHICH HAD FOUR ESSENTIAL POINTS:  1) BOTH SIDES 
WOULD "WITHDRAW" TO THE LINES AS BEFORE MAY 1; 20 THE UN 
ALONE WOULD CONTROL THE HIGHWAY UNDER A SPECIAL REGIME; 3) 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  01763  02 OF 03  031854Z 
BOTH SIDES WOULD RESPECT THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND 
SAFETY OF UN PERSONNEL; 4) FURTHER CONSULTATIONS WOULD BE 
HELD.  GRANIC MADE NO MENTION OF ANY CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT 
WITH THESE TERMS, AND WE CANNOT IMAGINE THE GOC AGREEING 
TO A "WITHDRAWAL" WHICH WOULD SIMPLY RESTORE THE STATUS 
QUO ANTE.  END COMMENT. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
NO CROATIAN RETALIATION FOR MISSILE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
8. GRANIC SAID THAT THE GOC HAD MADE THE DECISION, DESPITE 
"LOTS OF PUBLIC PRESSURE," NOT TO RESPOND TO THE MISSILE 
ATTACKS OF MAY 2 OR MAY 3.  GRANIC GAVE DETAILS, AS 
CURRENTLY KNOWN, ON THE ATTACKS.  ON MAY 2, SIX ROCKETS 
WERE FIRED AT ZAGREB, RESULTING IN SIX DEATHS AND 143 
INJURED (ONE OF THE INJURED WAS LIKELY TO DIE).  ON MAY 3, 
THERE WERE NINE ROCKETS (SIX IN THE CITY CENTER AND THREE 
IN THE WIDER AREA).  ONE POLICEMAN HAD DIED WHILE 
DISARMING AN EXPLOSIVE DEVICE AND TWO CIVILIANS WHO WERE 
INJURED IN THE ATTACKS WERE EXPECTED TO DIE FROM THEIR 
WOUNDS.  41 OTHER WERE CONFIRMED AS INJURED, AMONG THE 
SERIOUSLY INJURED WAS THE TWENTY-ONE YEAR OLD DAUGHTER OF 
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC (GRANIC NOTED HIS OWN 
DAUGHTER HAD BEEN AT THE HIGH SCHOOL HIT IN YESTERDAY'S 
ATTACK).  GRANIC STRESSED THAT IT HAD NOT BEEN EASY FOR 
THE GOC TO SHOW RESTRAINT IN RESPONDING TO THE MISSILE 
ATTACKS.  IN THIS REGARD, GRANIC NOTED THAT CROATIA'S 
CONTINUED NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EU HAD BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR 
IN REENFORCING CROATIA'S RESTRAINT. 
 
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PAGE 04        ZAGREB  01763  02 OF 03  031854Z 
--------------------------------------------- - 
FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE RESPONSE 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
9. IF THERE WERE FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS, HOWEVER, GRANIC 
SAID THE GOC WOULD HAVE TO TAKE ACTION "TO PROTECT 
OURSELVES FROM THIS PARTICULAR KIND OF ATTACK."  BUT HE 
STRESSED THAT THE GOC WOULD IN NO CIRCUMSTANCES TARGET 
CIVILIANS IN ANY ATTACK.  GRANIC ALSO SAID THAT THE GOC 
WOULD BE SUPPLYING THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL WITH INFORMATION 
SHOWING THAT THE CLUSTER BOMB ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN TARGETS 
HAD BEEN ORDERED BY "RSK PRESIDENT" MARTIC AND AGREED TO 
BY "RSK" COMMANDER CELEKETIC.  "RSK CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR 
WAS ALSO IMPLICATED.  HE INDICATED THAT CROATIAN COURTS 
WOULD ALSO PURSUE CHARGES AGAINST THOSE RESPONSIBLE. 
- 
10. GRANIC ALSO INDICATED THAT THE GOC HAD MANY REPORTS OF 
INTERNAL CONFLICTS AMONG THE KRAJINA SERBS, BOTH IN KNIN 
AND AT THE LOCAL LEVEL.  THERE WERE REPORTS OF CIVILIANS 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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PAGE 01        ZAGREB  01763  03 OF 03  031854Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  OASY-00  TEDE-00  INR-00 
      IO-10    L-01     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PM-00    P-01 
      SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    SNIS-00  NISC-01  PMB-00     /017W 
                  ------------------C1D7FA  031854Z /38 
O 031949Z MAY 95 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5644 
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL MUNICH 
USLO SKOPJE 
AMEMBASSY BAKU 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// 
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// 
NATO EU COLLECTIVE 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21// 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 
DIA WASHDC 
USMISSION GENEVA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE 
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  01763  03 OF 03  031854Z 
BAKU FOR DCM FINN 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010 
TAGS:  MOPS HR UN 
SUBJECT:  UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES 
          CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 
          MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER 
 
TRYING TO FLEE THE UNPAS BEING BLOCKED BY SERB POLICE. 
THESE SPLITS HAD BEEN AGGRAVATED BY EVENTS SINCE MAY 1. 
MARTIC HAD BEEN TRYING TO AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION TO 
SECURE HIS POSITION AND TO BRING THE VIOLENCE TO A LEVEL 
WHERE BELGRADE WOULD BE FORCED TO RESPOND IN SUPPORT OF 
THE "RSK." 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
SECTOR WEST TO BE AN EXAMPLE OF SUCCESSFUL REINT 
EGRATION 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
11. GRANIC GAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE GOC HAD ANY PLANS 
TO RETURN TO THE LINES OF BEFORE MAY 1.  INSTEAD, HE 
STRESSED TUDJMAN'S DECISION TO "MAKE WESTERN SLAVONIA AN 
EXAMPLE OF HOW SERB AND CROAT CAN COEXIST."  THE GOC'S 
INTENT WAS TO RESTORE LIFE TO NORMAL IN SECTOR AS QUICKLY 
AS POSSIBLE, AND TO DO IT EXCLUSIVELY WITH CIVIL 
AUTHORITIES.  TUDJMAN WOULD BE MAKING A SPEECH TO THE 
NATION, EITHER THE EVENING OF MAY 3, OR AT THE LATEST ON 
MAY 4.  IT WILL BE A SPEECH FOR THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF 
CROATIA, BUT "ESPECIALLY FOR THE CROATIAN SERBS." 
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GALBRAITH 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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