US embassy cable - 95HARARE4281

S E C R E T HARARE 004281 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:OADR 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PHUM, BY, ZI 
SUBJECT:  INTERVENING IN BURUNDI IN THE EVENT OF 
WIDE-SCALE VIOLENCE 
 
REF: STATE 86948 
 
1.  SECRET- ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  BEGIN SUMMARY. ZIMBABWEAN OFFICIALS SHARE OUR 
CONCERN ABOUT THE CONTINUING VIOLENCE IN BURUNDI AND 
RECOGNIZE THAT DIRECT MILITARY INTERVENTION UNDER THE 
AEGIS OF THE UN AND/OR THE OAU MAY BE THE ONLY WAY TO 
AVOID ANOTHER RWANDA SITUATION.  ZIMBABWEAN FOREIGN 
MINISTRY OFFICIALS WILL DISCUSS A POSSIBLE TROOP 
CONTRIBUTION TO A BURUNDIAN PEACEKEEPING FORCE WITH 
PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THEIR COLLEAGUES IN THE DEFENSE 
MINISTRY.   THE ZIMBABWEANS PROMISED TO LET US KNOW ASAP 
IF (AND UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES) THE GOZ MIGHT BE 
PREPARED TO CONTRIBUTE TROOPS TO A BURUNDIAN 
PEACEKEEPING FORCE.  END SUMMARY 
3.  THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH ZIMBABWE'S PERMANENT 
SECRETARY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS STAN CHIGWEDERE ON APRIL 
 
SIPDIS 
13 TO DISCUSS THE CRISIS IN BURUNDI AND TO MAKE THE 
DEMARCHE CONTAINED IN REFTEL.  FOLLOWING THE 
AMBASSADOR'S PRESENTATION, CHIGWEDERE EXPRESSED DISMAY 
AT THE SITUATION IN BURUNDI AND SAID THAT THE GOZ WAS 
ALSO "SERIOUSLY CONCERNED" ABOUT THE CONTINUING CYCLE OF 
VIOLENCE IN THAT COUNTRY.  CHIGWEDERE SAID THAT THE 
ISSUE OF BURUNDI HAS BEEN A RECENT SUBJECT OF 
DISCUSSIONS AT THE MFA AND THAT HE HOPED TO GET A 
PERSONAL READOUT FROM THE SOUTH AFRICA FOREIGN MINISTER 
FOLLOWING HIS OAU SPONSORED TRIP TO BURUNDI.  DISPLAYING 
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A FAIRLY BROAD KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE CURRENT BURUNDIAN 
SITUATION, CHIGWEDERE PLACED MUCH OF THE BLAME ON 
BURUNDI'S TUTSI-DOMINATED MILITARY AND THE EXTREMIST 
ELEMENTS IN FRODEBU. 
 
4.  CHIGWEDERE WELCOMED OUR CONSULTATIONS ON THE BURUNDI 
ISSUE AND AGREED WITH OUR ASSESSMENT THAT WE MUST TRY TO 
DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO PREVENT ANOTHER RWANDA. 
CHIGWEDERE ALSO AGREED THAT A CREDIBLE THREAT AND/OR 
ACTUAL USE OF A MILITARY PEACEKEEPING FORCE MIGHT BE THE 
ONLY WAY TO PREVENT OR CONTAIN A MAJOR ERUPTION OF 
VIOLENCE IN BURUNDI. 
 
5.  CHIGWEDERE SAID HE AND HIS MFA COLLEAGUES WOULD 
RAISE THE TROOP ISSUE AT A HIGH LEVEL IN THE DEFENSE 
MINISTRY AND ALSO WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE.  HE SAID HE 
WOULD NOT PREJUDGE ANY DECISION, BUT WOULD GET BACK TO 
THE AMBASSADOR AS SOON AS HE HAD ANY HARD NEWS ON 
WHETHER THE GOZ WOULD BE PREPARED TO COMMIT ANY TROOPS. 
CHIGWEDERE URGED THE AMBASSADOR TO RAISE THE BURUNDI 
ISSUE WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE DURING THE AMBASSADOR'S 
FORTHCOMING PRESENTATION OF CREDENTIALS CEREMONY. 
 
6.  COMMENT:  ALTHOUGH THE GOZ IS SERIOUSLY CONCERNED 
ABOUT THE BLOODLETTING IN BURUNDI, IT IS DIFFICULT TO 
PREDICT HOW THE ZIMBABWEANS WILL REACT ON THIS ISSUE. 
ON THE PLUS SIDE, THEY HAVE RESPONDED FAVORABLY TO A 
NUMBER OF PEACEKEEPING REQUESTS AND ARE CURRENTLY 
COMMITTED TO SENDING A BATTALION TO ANGOLA.  HOWEVER, ON 
THE NEGATIVE SIDE, ZIMBABWE'S COMMITMENT TO PROVIDE 
TROOPS TO THE ANGOLAN PEACEKEEPING OPERATION, THE LACK 
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OF GOZ FUNDS TO SUPPORT ANOTHER MILITARY OPERATION, AND 
A LACK OF FINANCIAL OR MATERIAL SUPPORT FROM THE U.S. 
MAY DETER THE ZIMBABWEANS FROM GETTING INVOLVED IN 
BURUNDI.  WE ALSO NOTE THAT THE ZIMBABWEANS ARE RELYING 
ON BRITISH LOGISTICAL SUPPORT FOR THEIR FORTHCOMING 
OPERATIONS IN ANGOLA. 
CARSON 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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