US embassy cable - 03MONTREAL476

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MONTREAL 000476 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SECSTATE FOR WHA/CAN, IIP, INR/IAA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CA, Labor, Iraq 
SUBJECT:  MONTREAL ANTI-WAR DEMONSTRATORS COALITION OF 
LABOR AND ACTIVIST GROUPS; SIZE OF MARCH 16 
DEMONSTRATION QUESTIONED 
 
REF:  QUEBEC 00051 
 
1. SUMMARY:  Quebecers have traditionally been known for anti-war 
sentiment; in the lead-up to the current war in Iraq, polling 
data, media coverage and the largest demonstrations in Canada 
have indicated that pacifism is alive and well in the province. 
But the picture of Quebec pacifism presented in the last several 
months is probably more complicated than a simple outgrowth of a 
historical tradition.  Echec a la guerre, the coalition group 
that has organized all of the large anti-war demonstrations in 
Montreal since January, is comprised primarily of social action 
and labor groups.  Many of these same people and groups were 
active in protesting against globalization at the Quebec City 
Summit of the Americas in 2001.  Interestingly, evidence has come 
to light recently that the size of the Montreal demonstrations, 
which were reported to have drawn participants in the 100,000 to 
200,000 range, may have been considerably exaggerated.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
2.  A Lger Marketing poll conducted March 19-23 is one of many 
highlighting Quebec's anti-war views. While Ontarians were 
equally divided as to whether or not the U.S. led coalition is 
justified in declaring war on Iraq (38 percent said yes, 39 
percent said no), in Quebec those numbers were 82 percent no and 
only 18 percent yes.  The same poll indicates that twice as many 
Quebecers (18 percent) would be inclined to boycott U.S. products 
than Canadians (9 percent). 
 
3.  Quebec journalists who in normal times hold views more 
compatible with anti-globalization and anti-U.S. groups have 
intensified their bias in the past year.  The France-U.S. 
disputes at the UN and the rise of anti-French sentiment in the 
U.S. has only deepened the anti-U.S. slant of the French media in 
Quebec.  Moreover, the presence of France in the dispute has 
increased the percentage of AFP stories and stories taken 
straight from French publications.  La Presse, arguably the most 
important paper in Quebec, dispatched correspondent Jooned Khan 
to Baghdad at the beginning of the war; Kahn is well known for 
his anti-American views and his reporting from Baghdad reflects 
this bias.  He has been regularly contributing first person 
accounts of casualties, especially civilian.  Most of the guests 
on "Maisonneuve  l'coute," one of the most watched news shows 
in Quebec, are solidly anti-U.S.  Last fall, Maisonneuve hosted a 
Moroccan-born professor, Omar Aktouf, who claimed on the air that 
Ben Laden had nothing to do with 9-11.  Aktouf's comments were 
unchallenged by Maisonneuve and the other guest, a French 
h 
philosophy philosopher Pascal Bruckner.  Maisonneuve and RDI, the 
all news network of the French CBC, continue to host French 
authors with strong anti-American views. 
 
4.  The large Montreal demonstrations against the war -- reported 
at 25,000 on January 18, 150,000 on February 15 and 200,000 on 
March 15 -- were organized by an umbrella group called chec  la 
Guerre (Defeat the War).  The Group receives the logistical 
support of the Fdration des Infirmires et Infirmiers du Qubec 
(FIIQ), the Federation of Quebec Nurses.  The FIIQ has a 
membership of 45,500.  (The chec  la Guerre web site is 
actually the FIIQ web site.)  Quebec unions tend to be more 
politicized than their more work place oriented counterparts in 
other Canadian provinces.  They typically have foreign policy 
positions, and their leaders speak out on behalf of international 
groups they see as oppressed (i.e. the Palestinians).  The Nurses 
union, for example, has provided assistance to Cuban 
o Cuban 
organizations and is financing other international projects. 
 
5.  The chec coalition, which assembled 125 groups for its first 
large march on February 15, has grown to over 200 in the past 6 
weeks.   Most of these groups have small, sometimes overlapping, 
memberships.  But the coalition also includes large, more well- 
known groups like the Federation of Quebec Women, Greenpeace, 
chapters of labor groups such as the Federation des Travailleurs 
du Quebec, and the Muslim Council of Montreal (itself an umbrella 
group of some thirty Montreal Muslim organizations.)  The 
official spokesperson of chec  la guerre is Francine Nmh, who 
is also Director of the Quebec Association of International 
Development Organisations, an umbrella group of 51 organizations 
that work in International Development such as Oxfam-Qubec and 
Mdecins du monde.  Nmh was a delegate at the Summit of the 
People at the Summit of the Americas.  In February, she said that 
aid that 
"this war is illegal and immoral; to participate is to accept the 
premeditated murder of the Iraqi people." 
 
6.  Much has been made of the size of the demonstrations in 
Montreal.  The front page of the tabloid le Journal de Montral 
on March 16 screamed, "Record Crowd for Peace: 200,000 People in 
the Street" (superimposed over a picture of the crowds).  La 
Presse estimated the demonstration at between 100,000 and 200,000 
but said Montreal's showing provided "a lesson of pacific 
solidarity to the rest of the world" where demonstrations on 
March 16 attracted fewer people than a month earlier.  Several TV 
reports said Montreal had one of the largest demonstrations in 
the world.  The huge numbers of people who came out in cold 
weather to protest were quickly seized upon by organizers and 
commentators as indicative of the strength of the Quebec anti-war 
cause.  Bloc Qubcois leader Gilles Duceppe quoted the 250,000 
number in the House of Commons as proof of strong public anti-war 
ar 
sentiment.  Some said it could be argued that as many as 10 
percent of Montrealers were demonstrating (greater Montreal's 
population is approximately 2.5 million people). 
 
7.  However, on Sunday (4/6), Jean-Franois Grenier, President of 
GeoCom, a site locator company in Montreal, suggested to viewers 
of the French CBC 5 sur 5 show that the numbers of protestors on 
March 16 were not more than 49,000.  He indicated to post on the 
phone that 49,000 was a generous interpretation of aerial photos 
his company had taken of the crowds (leaving open the possibility 
that some thousands of people had left the protest when the 
photos were taken).  Grenier told us he thought the actual 
figure, as indicated by the density of the crowds measured in his 
photos, was likely between 35,000 and 40,000.  Geocom made a 
crowd density assessment for the demonstrations on March 14 at 
the request of French CBC.  Grenier indicated he thought the 
numbers cited by both the media, demonstration organizers and 
even the police were way off.  (Grenier also questioned the size 
of demonstrations reported in Europe.)  None of the Monday (4/5) 
papers mentioned the strong possibility that the March 16 crowds 
had been overestimated nor did CBC French television do much to 
publicize its new-found information. 
 
8.  COMMENT:  Regardless of the number of people who attended the 
peace marches, Quebecers do oppose the war to a greater extent 
than other Canadians. But because that opposition is greatest 
among the media and militant anti-globalization groups, 
perceptions may be skewed.  The present anti-war sentiment is 
widespread in Quebec but we suspect that among the general 
population, this sentiment does not run as deep as the media and 
certain politicians have presented it. 
ALLEN