US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO593

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, PRM/ANE 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL: 
TAGS: PGOV, PREF, PHUM, PTER, CE, KWMM 
SUBJECT:  Displaced person returns to Sri Lanka's 
north/east continue to swell 
 
Refs:  Colombo 543, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  The number of displaced persons 
returning to Sri Lanka's north/east continues to swell 
and now stands at 270,000.  The returnees are Tamil; few 
are Muslim.  In other trends, many Tamils also appear to 
be leaving the war-ravaged north/east in search of 
economic opportunities in the south.  The high number of 
returnees seems to represent a vote of confidence in the 
peace process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) RETURNS SWELL:  In its latest figures, UNHCR 
has told us that the total number of Internally 
Displaced Persons (IDPs) who have returned to their 
points of origin in the north/east has swelled to over 
270,000 as of the end of January.  UNHCR reports that 
35,000 additional returnees went back to their home 
areas in the three-month time span between late 2002 and 
January 2003.   UNHCR estimates that the rate of return 
will continue at a clip of about 10,000 a month for the 
foreseeable future.  Given the time-lag in its figures, 
this means that as of April 2003 close to 300,000 IDPs 
may have returned to their home areas since the start of 
the peace process in December 2001. 
 
3.  (C) MUSLIMS STAY PUT:  The vast majority of the 
returnees continue to travel to the Jaffna Peninsula in 
northern Sri Lanka and to points in the east.  The 
returnees are invariably Tamil.  The number of Muslim 
IDPs returning to their home areas is very, very low. 
(Note:  Explaining this phenomenon, M.I.M. Mohideen, 
chairman of the Muslim Rights Organization (MRO), 
recently released a statement asserting that Muslims 
simply did not trust the Liberation Tigers of Tamil 
Eelam, "LTTE."   According to Mohideen, despite LTTE 
entreaties, Muslims are not comfortable with the group 
and do not plan to return to their homes in the north 
soon.) 
 
4. (SBU) MANY TAMILS GO SOUTH, TOO:  In addition to the 
high rate of returns by IDPs, there are also indications 
that many Tamils are leaving the north/east in search of 
education and employment in the south.  Non-government 
organizations (NGOs) focused on migration have noted 
that the economic situation in the south remains much, 
much better than that in the war-torn north/east.  In 
light of the reopening of many roads throughout the 
country, Tamils can now easily move back-and-forth, 
allowing many to try their luck in the south.  (Note: 
In the past, before the start of the peace process, it 
was very difficult for Tamils to move around the country 
due to the war and government security regulations.) 
Many of the Tamils who go south wind up in Colombo, 
where the Tamil community constitutes perhaps a third of 
the population. 
 
5. (C) COMMENT:  The continued high rate of returns 
seems to be a clear indication that Tamil IDPs have a 
high degree of confidence in the current peace process. 
That said, over 500,000 IDPs still remain in camps or 
with families in the south, and it is not clear when the 
bulk of these might go home (if ever).  (Note:  Mission 
has not heard any reports that indicate that the 
approximately 100,000 Sri Lankan Tamil refugees in India 
plan to return home at any time soon.)  END COMMENT. 
 
6.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS