US embassy cable - 03HARARE685

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000685 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: LIKELIHOOD OF A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY LOW 
 
REF: A. HARARE 656 
     B. HARARE 648 
     C. 02 HARARE 2478 
     D. 02 HARARE 2354 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER KIMBERLY JEMISON FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) A 
ND (D). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The Movement for Democratic Change party (MDC) victory 
in the Kuwadzana and Highfield by-elections held on March 29 
and 30 is a blow to the Zimbabwe African National Unity 
Patriotic Front,s (ZANU-PF) plans to engineer a two-thirds 
majority in Parliament needed to change the constitution. 
ZANU-PF will have to step up its campaign of harassment into 
exile or arrests of MDC MPs, pry loose at least three more 
seats to contest (in addition to two currently vacated 
seats), and win the subsequent by-elections if it is to 
achieve this goal.  The likelihood that this confluence of 
events will occur is low, particularly if the by-elections 
are in urban areas, and ZANU-PF may have to come up with an 
alternative plan.  End summary. 
 
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Two-thirds is a Long Shot 
------------------------- 
2. (U) The Movement for Democratic Change party (MDC) victory 
in the Kuwadzana and Highfield by-elections held on March 29 
and 30 is a blow to the Zimbabwe African National Unity 
Patriotic Front,s (ZANU-PF) plans to engineer a two-thirds 
majority in Parliament needed to change the constitution. 
ZANU-PF currently holds 93 seats, the MDC holds 54, and 
ZANU-Ndongo, one. ZANU-PF could still manage to finagle a 
two-thirds majority if they win the two upcoming 
by-elections, and can open three more seats by convicting MDC 
MPs on trial or charged with felonies, and imprisoning them 
for six months or more.  (Note: The Zimbabwe constitution 
states that if a Member of Parliament is convicted of a crime 
and sentenced to death or imprisonment for a term of six 
months or more, the MP will cease to exercise that function. 
The seat will become vacant after 30 days from the date of 
the sentence.  End note.) 
 
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Next By-Elections Won,t Change Balance of Power 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
3. (U) ZANU-PF will have two more opportunities to try to 
bully Harare area residents into voting for the ruling party 
in Harare Central and Zengeza.  Mike Auret, MDC MP for Harare 
Central, resigned in February for health reasons but a 
by-election date has yet to be scheduled.  Tafadzwa 
Musekiwa,s seat will be open soon too.  Musekiwa fled to the 
U.K. on 22 November 2002 after receiving death threats. 
According to the Zimbabwe constitution, an MP cannot be 
absent from Parliament for 21 consecutive sittings. 
Musekiwa,s 21 days were up on March 20.  These urban area 
elections, where MDC garnered more than 75 percent and 73 
percent of the 2000 parliamentary vote for Harare Central and 
Zengeza, respectively, will most likely result in MDC 
victories but ZANU-PF will probably employ some of its 
heavy-handed tactics, at least in the high-density suburb of 
Zengeza. 
 
4. (U) In addition to these MDC vacancies, two ZANU-PF MP 
positions opened up.  Swithun Mombeshora, MP for Makonde and 
Minister of Higher and Tertiary Education, died on March 17 
and a by-election will be held there.  ZANU-PF suspended the 
MP from Chiredzi South, Aaron Baloyi, but he is appealing the 
decision.  ZANU-PF received 61.7 percent of the vote during 
the 2000 elections and 71.2 during the presidential election. 
 The results of these by-elections will most likely not 
change the balance of power in Parliament. 
 
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POSA - The Curse of the MDC MP 
------------------------------ 
5. (U) The wildcard in the parliamentary shuffle is the 
outcome of the many criminal charges levied against MDC MPs. 
Most of the charges are for alleged violations of the Public 
Order and Security Act (POSA), which can carry a penalty of 
up to 20 years imprisonment.  To date, two MDC MPs are on 
trial: Fletcher Dulini Ncube from Lobengula-Magwegwe and 
Renson Gasela from Gweru Rural.  Job Sikhala, MP for St. 
Mary,s; Nelson Chamisa, MP for Kuwadzana; Bennie 
Tumbare-Mutasa, MP for Seke; Moses Ndlovu, MP from 
Bulilimamangwe North; Gibson Sibanda, Vice President of MDC 
and MP from Nkulumane; Peter Nyoni, MP from Hwange East; 
Silas Mangono, MP from Masvingo Central; Paul Madzore, MP 
from Glen View; Abedinico Bhebhe, MP from Nkayi; and Austin 
Mupandawana, MP from Kadoma Central have at least one case 
pending.  Chamisa, Sikhala and Madzore have more than 2 cases 
pending. 
The following is a summary of charges levied against MDC MPs, 
when known, and the MDC margin of victory in the 2002 
presidential election: 
 
--Ncube is charged, along with five other MDC party 
officials, with the November 2001 murder of Cain Nkala, a 
Bulawayo area war veteran leader.  The MDC received 83.4 
percent of votes cast during the 2002 elections. 
 
--Gasela is charged, along with Morgan Tsvangirai and 
Welshman Ncube, with treason.  The MDC received 69.7 percent 
of the vote in 2002 but only 59.3 percent during the 2000 
parliamentary elections. 
 
--Sikhala was charged on February 24 with assaulting a police 
officer and thus contravening POSA.  The case is remanded to 
June 26.  The MDC got 73.4 percent of the 2000 vote and 74.5 
percent of the 2002 vote. 
 
--Chamisa, the newly elected MP for Kuwadzana, was charged on 
March 10 with attempting to overthrow the ZANU-PF government, 
in contravention of POSA.  The MDC received 70.9 percent of 
the vote, compared to 76.9 percent in 2000 and 77.9 percent 
in 2002. 
 
--Tumbare-Mutasa was charged on March 17 with discharging a 
firearm within 50 meters of the public, in contravention of 
the Firearms Act.  The MDC only got 44.8 percent of the vote 
during the 2002 elections and 45.6 percent during the 2000 
election. 
 
--Ndlovu was charged with assaulting a war veteran sometime 
last year, in violation of POSA.  The MDC got 57.6 percent of 
the vote in the 2000 elections and 56.3 percent in the 2002 
election. 
 
--Gibson Sibanda, vice-president of the MDC and MP for 
Nkulumane, is being charged under section 5 of POSA for his 
role in planning the stay-away on March 18 and 19.  The MDC 
got 82.2 percent of the 2000 vote and 78.4 percent of the 
2002 vote. 
 
--Madzore is being charged under POSA.  He has at least three 
cases pending.  The MDC got 81.2 percent of the 2000 vote and 
85.4 percent of the 2002 vote. 
 
--Mangongo was arrested for allegedly gathering MDC activists 
during the March stay away.  Mangongo is one of two MDC MPs 
from Masvingo province (out of 14) and the only one from the 
three Masvingo districts.  The MDC got 59.8 percent of the 
2000 vote and 59.6 percent of the 2002 vote. 
 
--Mupandawana was arrested in March for allegedly destroying 
property during the two-day stay away.  Mupandawana is one of 
two MDC MPs from Mashonaland West (out of 12), a ZANU-PF 
stronghold, and the only one from the three Kadoma districts. 
 The MDC got 67.4 percent of the 2000 vote and 59.8 percent 
of the 2002 vote. 
 
--Bhebhe and Nyoni were arrested in February for allegedly 
carrying offensive weapons, a violation of POSA.  The MDC got 
65.8 and 77.9 percent of the 2000 vote and 54.9 and 73.4 
percent of the 2002 vote for Nkayi and Hwange East, 
respectively. 
 
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Questionable ZANU-PF MPs 
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6. (U) A possible glitch in ZANU-PF,s quest for a two-thirds 
majority is the High Court ruling that nullified several 
election results because the elections did not occur in a 
free and fair environment, if ZANU-PF chooses not to ignore 
this.  Despite the ruling, none of the ZANU-PF MPs have 
stepped down, arguing that because they are appealing to the 
Supreme Court, they do not have to.  The constituencies are 
Buhera North, Hurungwe East, Mutoko South, Chiredzi North, 
Gokwe North, and Gokwe South.  All are ZANU-PF.  The Buhera 
North and Chiredzi North parliamentary elections were 
relatively close, with the ZANU-PF candidate garnering 53.6 
and 51 percent of the vote, respectively (53.7 and 68.2 
percent for the 2002 elections). 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) After losing the Kuwadzana and Highfield elections, 
ZANU-PF effort to grab a two-thirds majority in Parliament is 
a long shot.  As the most recent by-elections have shown, it 
will be very difficult for ZANU-PF to win an urban 
by-election, even if they resort to intimidation and 
vote-buying.  (See Reftels)  ZANU-PF would have a much better 
chance of taking some of the MDC's rural constituencies 
(Gweru rural, Seke, Bulilimangwe North, Nkayi, Kadoma, and 
Masvingo Central), since the margins of victory for the MDC 
were smaller and ZANU-PF could more discreetly manipulate the 
system to win these seats, using the bare-knuckle tactic they 
perfected in Insiza in October 2002.  (See Reftels).  End 
comment. 
SULLIVAN