US embassy cable - 03ISTANBUL467

UNCLAS ISTANBUL 000467 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, TK, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL WORRIES ABOUT WAR, U.S.-TURKEY TIES, 
ECONOMY 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: With apparently over ninety percent of the 
local population opposed to the war in Iraq, anti-war 
sentiment in Istanbul continues to harden as reports and 
images of civilian casualties stream in over the sympathetic 
news networks.  Among Istanbul's academic and business elite, 
however, fears of a breakdown in U.S.-Turkish relations and 
its consequences for Turkey have replaced Iraq as the primary 
concern.  The only issue that seems to span the sharp divide 
between the concerns of the man in the street and the elite 
is a shared nervousness about the government's ability to 
manage an already-battered economy in the face of additional 
shocks from the war.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (U) Media coverage of the coalition operations in Iraq has 
largely reinforced the prevailing anti-war sentiment in 
Istanbul.  Local television stations have focused 
predominantly on civilian casualties, reports of coalition 
setbacks, and regional opposition to the war.  Although our 
contacts with average Turks have elicited responses ranging 
from apathy to antipathy, the general mood among 
working-class (and unemployed) Istanbul residents remains 
decidedly anti-war.  Pointing to the coalition's failure to 
find evidence of chemical and biological weapons, almost all 
Turks here question the U.S.'s justification for war. 
Students stubbornly cling to their mantra of "no blood for 
oil," while residents of more conservative and religious 
neighborhoods voice their concerns about an "anti-Muslim 
crusade."  Although very few have a kind word to say about 
Saddam and his regime, they point gloomily to the 
difficulties involved in managing a post-Saddam Iraq and the 
regional resentment that is being provoked by the U.S.'s 
presence. 
 
 
3. (U) The preoccupations of our business, academic and media 
contacts, however, have shifted dramatically in recent days. 
Following weeks of negotiations and the parliament's refusal 
to allow the U.S. to transport troops and equipment to 
northern Iraq, the Istanbul elite is now focused on the 
"crisis" in U.S.-Turkish relations.  Discussions of "what 
went wrong?", "who is to blame?", and "is the strategic 
partnership dead?" have replaced arguments over whether the 
war in Iraq is justified.  At an April 2 Marmara Group 
conference on U.S.-Turkish relations, a panel of retired 
generals, senior diplomats, and business leaders skirted the 
case for war, but came out strongly in favor of maintaining 
the strategic partnership.  Former Foreign Minister Emre 
Gonensay argued that, given its friendship with the U.S., 
Turkey should have stood by the U.S. in Iraq.  Echoing the 
comments of other panelists, retired General Necdet Timur 
remarked that two months of disagreement cannot be allowed to 
undermine a 50-year old strategic relationship. 
 
 
4. (U) The only unifying theme in our discussions throughout 
Istanbul has been the universal, even overriding, concern 
about the fragile economic situation.  "Turkey must solve its 
economic problems... without a healthy economy, foreign 
policy is irrelevant," said former diplomat and DYP Vice 
Chairman Mehmet Ali Bayar at the Marmara Group conference. 
Investment analysts, bankers, and economists are skeptical 
about the AK government's ability to implement the IMF 
program.  Many of them now argue that the risk of loan 
default or restructuring has risen.  Sentiment has improved 
in the wake of Secretary Powell's visit and the renewed 
prospect for U.S. assistance, but all eyes are on AK's 
economic efforts.  Almost everyone worries about the 
potentially damaging impact that the war in Iraq is likely to 
have on Turkey's economy.  Local merchants and restaurant 
owners claim they are already feeling the pinch of 
contracting tourism.  Grocers, taxi drivers, security guards, 
and other working-class Turks in Istanbul bemoan their 
economic plight and hope for a rapid conclusion to the war. 
ARNETT