US embassy cable - 03BEIJING3947

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 003947 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/13 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CH, TW 
SUBJECT: TAIWAN: CHINA'S NEW LEADERSHIP TO CONTINUE 
"MODERATE" APPROACH 
 
REF:  BEIJING 3082 
 
(U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JON 
ALOISI.  REASONS: 1.5 (B/D). 
 
SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) A PROMINENT PRC ANALYST TOLD US HE EXPECTS 
BEIJING'S POLICY TOWARD TAIWAN TO SHOW CONTINUITY, WITH 
THE NEW LEADERSHIP CONTINUING TO PURSUE A RELATIVELY 
MODERATE APPROACH FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING ECONOMIC AND 
OTHER UNOFFICIAL LINKS.  OUR CONTACT SUGGESTED THAT THE 
IMPORTANCE OF HU JINTAO'S MARCH 11 SPEECH TO THE NPC 
TAIWAN DELEGATION WAS THE WAY HE PACKAGED TOGETHER A 
NUMBER OF MODERATE POINTS, EACH OF WHICH HAD BEEN MADE 
BEFORE BUT SEPARATELY RATHER THAN TOGETHER.  BASED ON 
HIS ANALYSIS OF TAIWAN'S POLITICAL DYNAMICS, THE ANALYST 
WAS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE NEAR-TERM PROSPECTS FOR 
OPENING DIRECT CROSS-STRAIT TRANSPORTATION LINKS.  HIS 
THINKING CLOSELY TRACKS WITH THAT OF OTHER KNOWLEDGEABLE 
EMBASSY CONTACTS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) GUO ZHENYUAN, SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE MFA- 
AFFILIATED CHINA INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, 
RECENTLY DISCUSSED WITH US CROSS-STRAIT DEVELOPMENTS, 
INCLUDING THE TAIWAN POLICY OF BEIJING'S NEW LEADERSHIP. 
GIVEN PRC POLITICAL DYNAMICS, GUO EXPLAINED, THERE WILL 
BE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONTINUITY IN POLICY TOWARD TAIWAN 
DESPITE THE CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP.  IN ONE SENSE, PARTY 
GENERAL SECRETARY HU JINTAO'S MARCH 11 "IMPORTANT 
SPEECH" ON TAIWAN POLICY TO THE NATIONAL PEOPLE'S 
CONGRESS "TAIWAN DELEGATION" CONTAINED NOTHING NEW, GUO 
SAID.  EACH OF THE POINTS MADE BY HU HAS BEEN STATED 
SEPARATELY IN THE PAST BY VARIOUS CHINESE LEADERS AND 
OFFICIALS.  WHAT IS SPECIAL ABOUT HU'S MARCH 11 REMARKS, 
GUO STRESSED, IS THE WAY HE PACKAGED TOGETHER FOR THE 
FIRST TIME WHAT ARE BEING CALLED THE "FOUR POINTS" AND 
"THREE WHATEVERS" OF HIS TAIWAN POLICY. 
 
3.  (U) ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, DURING HIS MARCH 11 
REMARKS HU JINTAO DISCUSSED "TAIWAN WORK UNDER THE NEW 
CIRCUMSTANCES."  HU'S "FOUR POINTS" ARE: 
 
-- ALWAYS ADHERE TO THE ONE-CHINA PRINCIPLE; 
 
-- SPARE NO EFFORTS TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL 
EXCHANGES ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT; 
 
-- FURTHER IMPLEMENT THE PRINCIPLE OF PLACING HOPES ON 
THE TAIWAN PEOPLE; AND, 
 
-- UNITE COMPATRIOTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT 
TO JOINTLY PUSH FORWARD THE GREAT REJUVENATION OF THE 
CHINESE NATION. 
 
ACCORDING TO HU'S "THREE WHATEVERS," BEIJING SHOULD 
SPARE NO EFFORT IN DOING WHATEVER BENEFITS: 
 
-- THE INTERESTS OF THE TAIWAN PEOPLE; 
 
-- THE UNIFICATION OF THE MOTHERLAND; AND, 
 
-- THE "GREAT REJUVENATION" OF THE CHINESE NATION. 
 
4.  (C) IN HIS FIRST MAJOR STATEMENT ON TAIWAN POLICY, 
HU CLOSELY FOLLOWED AND ENDORSED THE LINE SET BY JIANG 
ZEMIN, BUT ALSO PUT HIS PERSONAL STAMP ON POLICY BY 
PACKAGING HIS MESSAGE IN A NEW WAY.  CHINESE MEDIA 
CHARACTERIZED HU'S REMARKS AS MODERATE AND CONCILIATORY, 
FOCUSING ON POSITIVE THEMES SUCH AS INCREASING ECONOMIC 
AND CULTURAL EXCHANGES, HELPING TAIWAN INVESTORS, 
PROMOTING DIRECT TRANSPORTATION LINKS, AND EXCHANGING 
VIEWS WITH PARTIES AND PERSONALITIES IN VARIOUS CIRCLES 
FROM TAIWAN.  ACCORDING TO GUO, THE MODERATION EVIDENT 
IN HU'S REMARKS WAS A GOODWILL GESTURE TO TAIWAN.  IN 
ONE PHRASE EMPHASIZING THE SHARED INTERESTS OF TAIWAN 
AND THE MAINLAND, HU STATED THAT "CHINA BELONGS TO 
COMPATRIOTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE STRAIT AND IS OUR 
COMMON HOMELAND."  PREMIER WEN JIABAO ECHOED THE SAME 
THEME IN HIS MARCH 19 PRESS CONFERENCE (REFTEL), QUOTING 
A POEM IN WHICH A DECEASED KMT VETERAN HAD DESCRIBED HIS 
LONGING FOR HIS HOMETOWN ON THE MAINLAND. 
 
5.  (C) GUO ACKNOWLEDGED OUR OBSERVATION THAT HU JINTAO 
NOW APPEARS TO BE IN CHARGE OF TAIWAN POLICY AND THAT 
ZENG QINGHONG ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A PROMINENT ROLE.  GUO 
VOLUNTEERED THAT JIANG ZEMIN IS STILL INFLUENTIAL ON THE 
ISSUE.  WHEN ASKED ABOUT OFFICIALS BELOW THE TOP 
LEADERSHIP INVOLVED IN TAIWAN AFFAIRS, GUO CITED STATE 
COUNCIL TAIWAN AFFAIRS OFFICE (TAO) DIRECTOR CHEN 
YUNLIN, ADDING THAT HE HAD NOT HEARD OF ANY CHANGES 
BEING MADE IN THE TAO LINEUP.  COMMENT: GUO'S REMARKS 
TRACK GENERALLY WITH RECENT PRESS REPORTS THAT SUGGEST 
HU JINTAO AND ZENG QINGHONG HAVE SUCCEEDED JIANG ZEMIN 
AND QIAN QICHEN AS DIRECTOR AND DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE 
PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S TAIWAN AFFAIRS LEADING GROUP. 
OTHER KNOWLEDGEABLE EMBASSY CONTACTS ALSO AGREE ON THIS 
LINEUP.  END COMMENT. 
 
6.  (C) GUO WAS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR A 
BREAKTHROUGH ON THE OPENING OF DIRECT CROSS-STRAIT 
TRANSPORTATION LINKS PRIOR TO THE MARCH 2004 TAIWAN 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  ACCORDING TO GUO'S ANALYSIS, 
CHEN SHUI-BIAN IS UNLIKELY TO OPEN DIRECT LINKS AT THIS 
TIME BECAUSE HE CALCULATES THE MOVE WOULD COST HIM 
POLITICAL SUPPORT FROM "INDEPENDENCE FUNDAMENTALISTS," 
WHILE CREDIT WOULD GO TO OPPOSITION POLITICIANS RATHER 
THAN HIMSELF.  GUO SUGGESTED THAT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY 
TO PREDICT ELECTION TRENDS AND THAT, AS INCUMBENT 
PRESIDENT, CHEN SHUI-BIAN IS STRONGER POLITICALLY THAN 
IN 2000.  IF THE LIEN/SOONG TICKET WINS, GUO PREDICTED, 
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS WOULD BE MORE STABLE BECAUSE LIEN 
WOULD BE MORE POSITIVE TOWARD DIRECT LINKS.  GUO ALSO 
STATED THAT LIEN "ACCEPTS" THE 1992 CONSENSUS ON ONE 
CHINA AND PREDICTS HE WOULD NOT, IF ELECTED, SUGGEST 
COMPETING CONSTRUCTS SUCH AS "ONE COUNTRY ON EACH SIDE." 
 
COMMENT 
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7.  (C) THE NEW CHINESE LEADERSHIP WANTS TO KEEP THE 
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONSHIP ON ITS CURRENT RELATIVELY 
STABLE COURSE, HOPING THAT ECONOMIC AND OTHER UNOFFICIAL 
LINKS WILL WORK TO BRING THE TWO SIDES TOGETHER.  RECENT 
CONCRETE SIGNS OF A RELATIVELY POSITIVE APPROACH BY 
BEIJING INCLUDE ITS APPROVAL FOR TAIWAN AIRLINES TO FLY 
THROUGH PRC AIRSPACE DURING THE IRAQ WAR AND THE PLA'S 
PUBLIC ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF WITHDRAWING 
MISSILES FROM AREAS OPPOSITE TAIWAN.  DESPITE ITS 
RELATIVELY POSITIVE APPROACH, BEIJING REMAINS "VIGILANT" 
TO TRY TO HEAD OFF POSSIBLE MOVES BY TAIWAN THAT COULD 
"FORCE" IT TO REACT IN WAYS LIKELY TO HAVE DAMAGING SIDE 
EFFECTS.  SPECIFIC PRC CONCERNS INCLUDE "BREAKTHROUGHS" 
BY TAIWAN IN MILITARY RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES 
AND U.S. VISITS BY SENIOR TAIWAN LEADERS.  CURRENT 
CRITICISM OF TAIWAN LEADERS OVER THE PRC'S MISHANDLING 
OF SARS COULD ALSO SPARK A NEGATIVE REACTION FROM 
BEIJING, ESPECIALLY IF MAINLAND CRITICS PICK UP THE 
CALL. 
 
RANDT