US embassy cable - 95STATE51417

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 051417 
 
 
LONDON FOR YOUNG; USUN NEW YORK FOR GELBER 
 
E.O. 12356:235'. 5E-.  OQD" 

TAGS: PINR, KE, PGOV 

SUBJECT:  INR INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT - SOUTH AFRICA: 
CHALLENGES FACING MBEKI 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 

2.  INR'S FEBRUARY 28 ASSESSMENT ENTITLED SOUTH AFRICA: 
CHALLENGES FACING MBEKI" IS PROVIDED FOR YOUR 
INFORMATION AND COMMENT, AS APPROPRIATE. 

BEGIN TEXT 

3.  SUMMARY.  PRESIDENT MANDELA'S FEBRUARY 15 
ANNOUNCEMENT THAT HE WOULD NOT SEEK A SECOND TERM IN 
OFFICE HAS MADE DEPUTY PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI THE 
PRESIDENTIAL FRONT-RUNNER IN SOUTH AFRICA'S NEXT 
NATIONAL ELECTIONS, SCHEDULED FOR 1999.  GROWING RIFTS 
WITHIN THE ANC WILL INCREASINGLY TEST MBEKI'S LEADERSHIP. 

4.  ONE MAJOR RIFT IS BETWEEN THE CURRENTLY PREVAILING 
MODERATES, LED BY MANDELA AND MBEKI, AND PARTY 
MILITANTS.  BUT AS ANC SUPPORTERS BECOME INCREASING 
FRUSTRATED WITH THE SLOW PACE OF REFORM, THE ANC IS 
COMING UNDER GROWING PRESSURE TO RADICALIZE ITS 
POLICIES, AND THE MILITANT RHETORIC OF A GROUP OF RISING 
STARS, INCLUDING WINNIE MANDELA, IS GAINING POPULARITY. 
ANOTHER SCHISM LIES BETWEEN THE SUPPORTERS OF MBEKI AND 
THOSE OF ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL CYRIL RAMAPHOSA, WHO IS 
MBEKI'S STRONGEST COMPETITOR FOR SOUTH AFRICA'S TOP 
LEADERSHIP POSITION. 

5.  THE POPULIST APPEAL.  BESIDES WINNIE MANDELA, THE 
ANC'S "POPULIST" GROUPING INCLUDES THREE OTHER PARTY 
LEADERS WHOSE STATURE IN THE ANC IS NOT ACCURATELY 
REFLECTED BY THEIR CURRENT TITLES.  THEY ARE PETER 
MOKABA, PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON TOURISM CHAIRPERSON; 
BANTU HOLOMISA, DEPUTY MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS 
AND TOURISM; AND ROCKY MALEBANE-METSING, SPECIAL ADVISER 
TO THE NORTHWEST PROVINCE.  WITH THEIR OUTSPOKEN 
MILITANCY AND ADVOCACY OF RADICAL REDISTRIBUTION, THE 
FOUR HAVE ATTRACTED A LARGE FOLLOWING AMONG THE ANC'S 
POOREST CONSTITUENCIES--SQUATTERS, RURAL DWELLERS, THE 
URBAN UNEMPLOYED, AND MARGINALIZED YOUTH.  THEIR APPEAL 
IS BROADENING DESPITE THE EMBROILMENT OF EACH IN WIDELY 
PUBLICIZED SCANDALS. 

6.  MRS. MANDELA, THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL OF THE FOUR, 
WAS CONVICTED IN 1993 OF KIDNAPPING AND ASSAULT, AND, 
ALONG WITH MOKABA AND MALEBANE-METSING, HAS FACED 
REPEATED CHARGES OF FINANCIAL MISMANAGEMENT.  HOLOMISA'S 
DICTATORIAL ADMINISTRATION OF THE FORMER TRANSKEI 
HOMELAND HAS COME UNDER CLOSE SCRUTINY.  EVEN SO, AT THE 
ANC'S NATIONAL CONFERENCE LAST DECEMBER, HOLOMISA, 
MOKABA AND MRS. MANDELA WERE NOMINATED FIRST, THIRD AND 
FIFTH RESPECTIVELY FOR POSITIONS ON THE PARTY'S NATIONAL 
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE.  THE ANC'S POPULISTS ARE BUILDING A 
POWERFUL BASE OF SUPPORT THAT COULD, ONCE MANDELA STEPS 
DOWN, PLACE THEM IN A POSITION TO WIELD SIGNIFICANT 
INFLUENCE WITHIN THE PARTY AND THE GOVERNMENT. 

7.  AN UNEASY ALLIANCE.  MANDELA AND MBEKI CAN ILL 
AFFORD TO DISMISS THE POPULISTS' WIDE APPEAL--MRS. 
MANDELA ALONE HAS THE SUPPORT OF PERHAPS 40 PERCENT OF 
THE ANC'S CONSTITUENTS.  FOR HIS PART, MBEKI, WHOSE LONG 
YEARS IN EXILE LEFT HIM ISOLATED AND LARGELY UNKNOWN TO 
THE BLACK POPULATION, HAS ALLIED HIMSELF TO THE 
POPULISTS, DESPITE FUNDAMENTAL IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES, 
TO GAIN POPULAR SUPPORT.  HIS STRATEGY HAS LARGELY PAID 
OFF, AND HE NOW ENJOYS THE WIDE ACCEPTANCE HE NEEDS AS 
MANDELA'S HEIR APPARENT.  IF HE IS ELECTED PRESIDENT, 
MBEKI WILL COME UNDER GREAT PRESSURE FROM THE POPULISTS, 
WHOSE RISE IN THE GOVERNMENT MBEKI HAS FACILITATED, TO 
APPOINT THEM TO SENIOR CABINET POSTS, IN WHICH THEY WILL 
BE EVEN BETTER PLACED TO RADICALIZE ANC POLICIES. 

8.  RAMAPHOSA STILL STRONG.  MBEKI'S ALLIANCES WITH THE 
POPULISTS HAVE GIVEN HIM THE EDGE OVER RAMAPHOSA, WHO 
BOWED OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR DEPUTY PRESIDENT AT THE 
LAST MINUTE, KNOWING THAT A MAJORITY OF ANC NATIONAL 
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEMBERS SUPPORT MBEKI.  NONETHELESS, 
RAMAPHOSA, WHO RUNS THE PARTY ORGANIZATION AND IS A 
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY, REMAINS 
HIGHLY RESPECTED AMONG THE ANC SENIOR RANKS AND IS 
LIKELY TO CHALLENGE MBEKI FOR THE ANC'S PRESIDENTIAL 
NOMINATION IN THE NEXT ELECTION. 

9.  RAMAPHOSA WOULD BE A FORMIDABLE RIVAL:  A PROMINENT 
LABOR LEADER DURING THE APARTHEID ERA, HE TRADITIONALLY 
HAS FAR GREATER SUPPORT THAN MBEKI AMONG GRASSROOTS ANC 
SUPPORTERS. 
 
 
CHRISTOPHER