US embassy cable - 95ZAGREB817

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: War Crimes 
SUBJECT:  POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE:  SOME OPPOSITION 
          PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY 
 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2.  WHILE THE CROATIAN POLITICAL OPPOSITION HAS MOSTLY 
FALLEN IN BEHIND THE GOVERNMENT'S POSITION ON TERMINATING 
THE UNPROFOR MANDATE HERE, SOME PARTIES, INCLUDING THE 
SERBIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNS), THE ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY 
(IDS) AND THE CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND) HAVE 
POINTED OUT THE DANGERS THAT THE GOC DECISION ON UNPROFOR 
WILL MEAN FOR CROATIA.  THESE THREE PARTIES HAVE NOT 
BOUGHT INTO THE NATIONALISTIC RHETORIC THAT HAS BEEN 
ECHOED BY THE OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES AND HDZ, AND WHICH 
HAS CLOUDED THE PROPOSALS FOR AUTONOMY FOUND IN THE Z-4 
PLAN.  HND OFFICIALS CONSIDER THE Z-4 PLAN TO BE A SOUND 
BASIS FOR FURTHER TALKS.  THE IDS CHAMPIONS REGIONAL 
AUTONOMY, BUT IS CONCERNED THAT THE Z-4 PLAN WOULD GRANT 
AUTONOMY TO SERBS WHILE OTHER ETHNIC GROUPS MUST LIVE WITH 
CENTRALIZED AUTHORITY IN ZAGREB.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND) 
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3.  ON FEBRUARY 22 THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH STIPE MESIC, 
PRESIDENT OF THE CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND) WHO 
SAID THAT HE CONSIDERS THE Z-4 PLAN TO BE A SOUND BASIS 
FOR FURTHER TALKS.  BROAD AUTONOMY AND DEMILITARIZATION, 
HE BELIEVES, ARE A NECESSARY CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURE 
FOR SERBS TO AGREE TO REINTEGRATION.  HE CITED EVIDENCE OF 
CROATIAN WAR CRIMES -- THE PLANNED DESTRUCTION OF SERB 
HOUSES AND THE INABILITY OF THE POLICE TO FIND THE 
PERPETRATORS, AS WELL AS THE ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT OF 
TUDJMAN'S CHIEF BODYGUARD IN THE MURDER OF A SERB FAMILY 
IN THE ZAGREB SUBURBS -- AS A MAJOR FACTOR IN SERB 
DISTRUST OF THE GOC.  HE SAID THAT THE GOC ATTEMPT TO 
LIMIT THE RIGHT TO DUAL CITIZENSHIP TO CROATS ONLY IS 
UNWORKABLE, THAT RIGHT MUST BE APPLIED TO SERBS, ITALIANS, 
AND OTHER MINORITIES ON AN EQUAL BASIS. 
 
4.  MESIC THINKS TUDJMAN WILL CONSIDER A REVISED UNPROFOR 
MANDATE (UNDER A DIFFERENT NAME) WHEN HE REALIZES THAT 
MILOSEVIC IS PLAYING TRICKS.  MESIC SAID THAT TUDJMAN'S 
VISION OF AN ETHNICALLY PURE GREATER CROATIA IS 
FUNDAMENTALLY AT ODDS WITH MILOSEVIC'S GREATER SERBIA. 
MESIC THOUGHT THAT A NEW MANDATE WOULD BUILD TRUST BETWEEN 
SERBS AND CROATS AND FACILITATE REINTEGRATION IF IT 
PROVIDED A SECURE ENVIRONMENT FOR CROATIA'S SERBS AND THE 
RETURN OF DISPLACED PERSONS, AS WELL AS ESTABLISHED 
CONTROL OF CROATIA'S BORDERS.  HE VIEWED TERMINATION OF 
THE MANDATE AS A POINTLESS MOVE WHICH WOULD SERVE TO UNDO 
ALL THE GAINS ACHIEVED UNDER THE ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE 
BUILDING MEASURES AGREEMENT BETWEEN ZAGREB AND KNIN. 
 
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5.  IN ONE OF THE FEW FAVORABLE PRESS ARTICLES, PUBLISHED 
IN THE WEEKLY "GLOBUS," HND VICE PRESIDENT JOSIP MANOLIC 
WROTE THAT Z-4 IS THE "MOST SERIOUS INTERNATIONAL DOCUMENT 
OFFERING A SOLUTION TO THE CRISIS IN CROATIA."  HE WAS 
CRITICAL OF THE GOC FOR NOT PROPOSING THEIR OWN PLAN, 
WHICH WAS EMPHASIZED BY MESIC WHEN HE TOLD THE AMBASSADOR 
THAT THE GOC SHOULD HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO FILL THE VOID 
WHEN THEY CANCELLED THE UNPROFOR MANDATE.  MANOLIC 
CRITICIZED THE VIEW THAT Z-4 WOULD CREATE A STATE WITHIN A 
STATE, WRITING THAT, IN HIS OPINION, CONSTITUTIONAL LAW 
GIVES THE SERBS THE RIGHT TO HAVE ADMINISTRATIVE AND COURT 
AUTHORITY AS WELL AS PARLIAMENTARY INSTITUTIONS TO PASS 
LEGISLATION ON ISSUES OF LOCAL AUTONOMY. 
 
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ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (IDS) 
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6.  THE IDS HAS LONG BEEN A CHAMPION OF REGIONAL AUTONOMY, 
BUT IS UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE Z-4 PLAN'S GRANTING LOCAL 
AUTONOMY ONLY TO SERBS.  ON FEBRUARY 14 POLOFF VISITED THE 
ISTRIAN PORT CITY OF PULA TO MEET WITH IDS PRESIDENT AND 
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT IVAN JAKOVCIC, PULA'S IDS DEPUTY 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00817  02 OF 02  231648Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-01   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  INL-02   OASY-00  DODE-00 
      DOEE-00  FBIE-00  H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-01 
      ADS-00   M-00     NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   PA-01    PM-00 
      PRS-01   P-01     SB-00    SCT-00   SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00 
      T-00     USIE-00  SNIS-00  NISC-01  PMB-00   PRMC-01  DRL-09 
      G-00       /022W 
                  ------------------A9A3F1  231705Z /38 
R 231646Z FEB 95 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4954 
INFO AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE 
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK 
USLO SKOPJE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000817 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00817  02 OF 02  231648Z 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS:  PGOV PREL HR SR BK 
SUBJECT:  POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE:  SOME OPPOSITION 
          PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY 
 
MAYOR ALDO SKIRA, AND PARTY SECRETARY EMIL SOLDATIC.  THE 
MAIN ISSUE ON THE AGENDA WAS THE RECENT RULING AGAINST 
REGIONAL AUTONOMY BY THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT WHICH STRUCK 
DOWN 19 PROVISIONS OF THE ISTRIAN COUNTY STATUTE 
PERTAINING TO OFFICIAL USE OF THE ITALIAN LANGUAGE AND 
DECENTRALIZATION OF LOCAL ADMINISTRATION. 
 
7.  SOLDATIC SAID THAT THE IDS'S OPTIONS TO CHANGE THE 
COURT'S DECISION ARE LIMITED.  THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT'S 
RULING WAS FINAL AND THERE WAS NO AVENUE FOR PURSUING AN 
APPEAL.  IDS, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO LOBBY THE SABOR 
FOR CHANGES IN THE CONSTITUTION.  BEYOND THAT THE IDS WILL 
TRY TO REFORMULATE SOME STATUTES INTO SOMETHING ACCEPTABLE 
TO THE GOC AND CONTINUE TO TEST THE LAW TO SEE HOW MUCH 
AUTONOMY ZAGREB WILL ALLOW.  THEY ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT NOT 
ONLY COULD THE DECISION PROVIDE MOTIVATION TO ANTI-CROAT 
EXTREMISTS IN BOTH ITALY AND ISTRIA TO PURSUE MORE VOCAL 
CAMPAIGNS FOR SEPARATISM AND BORDER CHANGES, BUT IT ALSO 
DID NOT BODE WELL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GOC CONCESSIONS 
TO KNIN. 
 
8.  ALONG WITH THE SNS, IDS UNANIMOUSLY OPPOSED 
TERMINATION OF THE UNPROFOR MANDATE.  IN PRIVATE JAKOVCIC 
SAID THAT THE GOC DECISION ON UNPROFOR AND THE "RSK'S" 
REFUSAL TO EVEN LOOK AT THE Z-4 PLAN MADE HIM, FOR THE 
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FIRST TIME, "REALLY SCARED FOR THE FUTURE."  BOTH SIDES 
HAD TAKEN EXTREME POSITIONS WHICH WERE NOT EASY TO BACK 
DOWN FROM, AND THE GOC WAS NOT FACING UP TO THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LOSE A WAR WITH THE "RSK," 
ESPECIALLY WITH BSA AND FRY SUPPORT.  HE SAID HE HAD 
CONSIDERED THE IDEA OF OFFERING TO LEAD A GROUP OF 
OPPOSITION LEADERS TO KNIN IN AN EFFORT TO RESTART 
NEGOTIATIONS, BUT ADMITTED THAT THE IDEA HAD PROBLEMS (FOR 
INSTANCE, WHAT WOULD THEY DO IF GREETED WITH THE "RSK" 
FLAG AND ANTHEM).  ALSO, OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES PROBABLY 
WOULD NOT SUPPORT SUCH A MOVE BECAUSE MANY ARE SUPPORTING 
THE GOC POSITION. 
 
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CROATIAN PEASANTS PARTY (HSS) 
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9.  THE HSS TYPIFIES THE STANCE ASSUMED BY MOST OF THE 
REST OF THE OPPOSITION.  NEW HSS PRESIDENT ZLATKO TOMCIC, 
IN A CALL ON THE AMBASSADOR NOVEMBER 8, SAID THAT THE HSS 
SUPPORTED THE GOC DECISION TO TERMINATE THE UNPROFOR 
MANDATE, BUT THEY WOULD SUPPORT A REVISION OF THE MANDATE 
(UNDER A DIFFERENT NAME) IF IT PROVIDED GUARANTEES TO 
CONTROL CROATIA'S BORDERS.  TOMCIC SAID THAT IN GENERAL 
THE HSS SUPPORTS THE Z-4 PLAN AS A BASIS FOR DISCUSSION 
BUT HAD SERIOUS RESERVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ON THE ISSUE OF 
TIES TO SERBIA.  TOMCIC CLAIMED THE HSS WAS IN FAVOR OF 
ADMINISTRATIVE AUTONOMY FOR THE SERBS, BUT WHEN ASKED BY 
THE AMBASSADOR IF THIS MEANT THAT SERBS COULD PURCHASE, 
FOR EXAMPLE, SCHOOL TEXTBOOKS FROM SERBIA, TOMCIC 
ANSWERED, "ABSOLUTELY NOT."  A FLUSTERED SILENCE ENSUED 
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WHEN THE AMBASSADOR POINTED OUT THAT THAT WOULD DENY 
AUTONOMY TO THE SERBS. 
 
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COMMENT 
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10.  THE ATTITUDE OF THE HND AND IDS (AND SNS) -- THIRD, 
AND, ROUGHLY, SIXTH LARGEST PARTIES IN THE SABOR -- IS A 
SMALL HOPEFUL SIGN THAT ATTITUDES AMONG THE OPPOSITION'S 
CONSTITUENCIES HAVE NOT SOLIDIFIED AGAINST SERB AUTONOMY 
AND THE Z-4.  THERE ARE AT LEAST A FEW VOICES CHALLENGING 
TUDJMAN'S RATHER UNREALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF WHAT UNPROFOR'S 
DEPARTURE WILL MEAN FOR CROATIA. 
 
GALBRAITH 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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