US embassy cable - 03AMMAN2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002007 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, JO 
SUBJECT: ZARQA BUSINESS COMMUNITY EYES PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; please protect accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (sbu)  Although they doubt elections will occur as 
scheduled on June 17, business leaders in Jordan's main 
industrial center believe a new parliament will redress the 
balance of political power in Jordan, giving areas outside 
Amman a greater voice in policy decisions.  While a new 
parliament may complicate the economic reform process, giving 
elected representatives more say should serve to strengthen 
economic performance over time as the development of 
democratic institutions and formal, constructive channels for 
dissent gives investors greater confidence in the continuity 
of the application of rule of law in Jordan.  End summary. 
 
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PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - DOUBTS ON TIMING 
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2.  (sbu)  In a March 19 meeting, Board members of the Zarqa 
Chamber of Industry welcomed the King's announcement that 
parliamentary elections would be held in June.  They doubted, 
though, that elections would actually be held at that time. 
They noted that "no one is paying any attention" to the 
prospect of elections or campaigning by candidates, as most 
Jordanians have been riveted instead to the (then) prelude to 
war in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, ongoing Arab-Israeli 
violence.  Indeed, they said most candidates for 
Zarqa-designated seats were not campaigning vigorously, 
calculating that the effort would be wasted on a target 
population that was seemingly uninterested and distracted by 
more immediate concerns. 
 
3.  (sbu)  Mohammed Arsalan, Board Secretary and a candidate 
himself for the "Chechen" seat for Zarqa, echoed these 
remarks, noting he had put his own campaigning activity on 
hold for the time being.  He said it had become increasingly 
difficult to solicit endorsements (including, he winked, from 
the Chamber of Industry), since key interest groups were 
unwilling to commit to a candidate without sizing up their 
options, something they had no time for as war loomed. 
Arsalan and the other Board members predicted elections would 
more likely be postponed until the fall, to allow for 
sufficient campaigning time between the shake-out of Iraq and 
election day.  They agreed that such a delay would not cost 
the government any real political capital, since Jordanians 
have come to expect such things, and noted that such a delay 
might benefit more moderate candidates, who would be able to 
put time between the elections and any remaining raw emotions 
as a result of the war. 
 
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CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE ANTICIPATED 
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4.  (sbu)  Once parliament is convened, though, the board was 
optimistic about its role in governing Jordan.  They saw the 
parliament playing an important role as a sounding board for 
popular and regional concerns about government policies, 
which would - they hoped - prompt the government to be more 
responsive to constituent concerns.  They were specifically 
NOT worried about the prospects of Islamist control of 
parliament, either directly through blocs of IAF-controlled 
seats, or indirectly through election of Islamic sympathizers 
to regional seats.  They pointed out that, even at their 
height, Islamists held less than 20% of all seats in 
parliament.  Indeed, some Board members thought seats in 
parliament might serve to moderate the Islamic opposition, 
giving them a voice in government that had lately been denied 
to them. 
 
5.  (sbu)  More importantly, the Zarqa Chamber's leaders saw 
a new parliament as a vehicle to move some decision-making 
power on economic issues out of Amman.  Board members have 
long complained (along with their colleagues in Irbid) that 
government policy is too Amman-centric, rarely taking into 
account the concerns of large communities outside the 
capital.  They saw influence with MP's as a way to redress 
this imbalance, notably by educating and encouraging regional 
MP's to ask for amendments to new legislation - like the new 
Chambers of Industry Law - that negatively impacted the 
regions but was drafted by and for Amman business leaders. 
 
6.  (sbu)  Arsalan noted that parliament gave interest groups 
a unique opportunity to influence policy.  Most MP's, he 
said, are very weak on substantive issues - especially in the 
economy - but are willing and eager to accept advice and 
guidance from constituents.  In the last parliament, for 
example, he said he fed his MP talking points by mobile phone 
on an economic issue while the issue was being debated on the 
floor - points the MP repeated verbatim during the debate. 
 
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CHANGES TO TEMPORARY LAWS UNLIKELY 
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7.  (sbu)  The Board noted that, while they expected to have 
some entree on new legislation, their ability to effect 
changes to temporary laws already passed by the government 
during the parliament's absence was much more restricted. 
They did not expect a new parliament to attempt to amend any 
temporary laws brought forward by the government that touched 
on any of the King's priorities - including most economic 
reform legislation. 
 
8.  (sbu)  In a similar vein, since the government controls 
the order in which temporary laws are brought to the 
parliament for formal ratification, the board thought it 
likely that the government would simply back-load any 
potentially controversial temporary laws until they had time 
to discuss these laws informally with MP's or until future 
elections brought more like-minded MP's to the fore.  With 
the raft of temporary laws passed during parliament's 
absence, the Board said it would in any case be years before 
any potentially contentious temporary laws made it to the 
floor. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (sbu)  The Zarqa Chamber is one of Jordan's more 
forward-looking business bodies and is broadly supportive of 
the King's economic agenda.  Most members support QIZ 
activity and the FTA and actively participate in trade 
relation-building events with the Embassy and Jordan's 
AmCham.  They pride themselves on separating business from 
politics, unlike their sister Chamber in Amman, they claim. 
They are, however, ritually concerned about center-periphery 
relations both in politics and economics (despite most of 
them maintaining residences in Amman), as they have benefited 
greatly from economic reform policies that have put 
relatively more economic control into the hands of the 
private sector - and hence of the regions. 
 
10.  (sbu)  The Chamber's thoughts on the potentially 
constructive role for a new parliament is an interesting 
counterpoint to those who believe parliament will create more 
opportunities for vested interests to block or slow down 
economic reforms.  We agree with the assessment that a new 
parliament is unlikely to try to reverse progress made under 
temporary laws over the past three years.  However, bringing 
new legislation before parliament will provide an excellent 
opportunity for a host of vested interest groups - many with 
"old-economy" ties - to use parliamentary procedures to slow 
the pace of reform, in particular by distorting individual 
reform initiatives. 
 
11.  (sbu)  Even a flawed economic reform process, though, 
would likely serve to legitimize the parliament and Jordan's 
democratization efforts.  A meaningful democratic process 
would, in turn, enhance investor confidence in the 
application of the rule of law in Jordan, and thus provide a 
long-term boost to the country's economic process.  It would 
also force MP's to take responsibility for economic decisions 
instead of criticizing from the sidelines, thereby moderating 
some of the anti-government rhetoric often displayed by 
Islamists and other opposition groups. 
GNEHM