US embassy cable - 03HARARE648

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000648 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC WINS HIGHFIELD AND KUWADZANA 
 
REF: HARARE 636 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1. (C) The opposition MDC won by-elections in the Harare 
high-density suburbs of Highfield and Kuwadzana by 
significant margins, despite an electoral process tilted 
heavily in favor of ZANU-PF.  The March 29-30 voting process 
itself was peaceful and orderly, if at times slow.  The 
environment in the vicinity of many polling stations, 
however, was very tense as roving bands of ZANU-PF youths and 
supporters threatened and harassed voters and diplomatic 
observers.  We would expect the GOZ to claim victory a 
Pyrrhic in that it increased the percentage of its urban 
support, and to respond with a violent crackdown on MDC 
supporters in the two constituencies.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) According to state radio, MDC officials and the 
Director of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), a 
coalition of NGOs interested in maintaining the integrity of 
elections, the MDC won Highfield with 8,759 votes, against 
only 4,844 for ZANU-PF.  In Kuwadzana, the MDC received 
12,548 votes to ZANU-PF's 5,002.  These numbers represent a 
fifty percent increase in votes cast for ZANU-PF in 
Highfield, and a eleven percent increase in votes cast for 
ZANU-PF in Kuwadzana since the 2000 parliamentary elections. 
In contrast, these numbers represent a forty percent decrease 
in votes cast for the MDC in Highfield, and a twenty percent 
decrease in votes cast for the MDC in Kuwadzana as compared 
to the 2000 parliamentary elections.  The MDC's victories 
were announced on government-controlled radio broadcasts late 
in the day on March 31. 
 
Diplomatic Access to Polling Stations Problematic 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3. (C) Six Emboffs along with about twenty diplomats from 
other Western and African countries observed voting in 
by-elections in the Harare high-density suburbs of Kuwadzana 
and Highfield March 29-30.  Even though interested foreign 
missions in Harare had received and were carrying letters 
from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating that 
accreditation for diplomats was not necessary, some polling 
station officials denied some diplomats access on March 29. 
The government-appointed Electoral Supervisory Commission 
issued a letter to polling station presiding officers by 
March 30 and diplomats then gained full access.  Emboffs 
observed that voting proceeded peacefully and in good order, 
if at times slowly.  Emboffs observed lines of 100-350 
prospective voters at most of the nineteen polling stations 
on March 29, but, consistent with expectations, lines of only 
10-20 voters on March 30.  The historical pattern in 
Zimbabwean elections is that most people vote on the first 
day.  By the afternoon of March 30 a few polling stations had 
logged about 1600 total votes each.  Emboffs observed and 
party polling agents confirmed less than ten percent of 
prospective voters were turned away. 
 
Violence 
-------- 
 
4. (C) There were more incidents of violence than is typical 
on the voting days, which historically have been peaceful. 
According to a representative of the prominent human rights 
organization, the Amani Trust, the Avenues Medical Clinic 
treated ten people on March 30 for beating wounds reportedly 
inflicted by ruling party supporters in Kuwadzana and 
Highfield.  In one case, ZANU-PF youths beat an MDC member 
assigned to bring food to MDC polling agents, who by law 
cannot leave their polling stations.  The MDC member suffered 
a large head wound and bruises over his entire body when 
Poloff saw him at the Avenues Medical Clinic on March 30. 
According to another MDC member assigned with the victim to 
deliver food, ZANU-PF supporters chased the MDC members, 
including a Highfield MDC polling agent.  They drove to the 
Highfield police station seeking protection but police were 
unresponsive.  Later, the youths blocked the car in which the 
MDC members were traveling.  Others escaped on foot, but the 
youths beat the victim severely. 
 
5. (C) On March 29 in Highfield, Emboff observed ZANU-PF 
youths beating one man while other ZANU-PF youths were 
handing out bread from the back of a flatbed truck. 
 
6. (C) ZESN reported that on March 30 ZANU-PF supporters 
abducted two of their independent observers from polling 
stations in Kuwadzana and beat them severely.  Another was 
beaten at a polling station in Highfield. 
 
Intimidation 
------------ 
 
7. (C) Emboffs observed ZANU-PF youths, possibly National 
Youth Service members in plain clothes, roving around polling 
stations in the two constituencies on foot and in large flat 
bed trucks and small pickups.  These youths threatened voters 
and Emboffs verbally at the entrances to many polling 
stations, and Emboffs observed large numbers of voters 
leaving voting lines without having voted.  Riot police were 
heavily deployed in both constituencies in large 
military-style vehicles, but they did little to control 
illegal campaigning by ZANU-PF youths. 
 
8. (C) On March 29, at a supermarket shopping plaza near a 
Kuwadzana polling station ZANU-PF supporters were drumming 
and chanting "don't vote, go home or we will attack you" 
while, ironically, holding a campaign banner for the ZANU-PF 
candidate--in clear violation of Zimbabwe's electoral laws. 
The Deputy South African High Commissioner attempted to 
reason with the mob, but they surrounded him and shouted at 
him to "go back to South Africa." 
 
9. (C) In an encounter on March 29 in Highfield, the ZANU-PF 
candidate, Joseph Chinotimba accused Emboffs of being 
terrorists and said they had no right to be at the polling 
station. 
 
Irregularities and Electoral Law Violations 
------------------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) On March 29-30 diplomats saw Elliott Manyika, 
ZANU-PF's National Political Commissar and Cabinet Minister, 
visiting polling stations throughout both constituencies.  On 
March 30 he addressed a ZANU-PF rally near the Kuwadzana 
District Office polling station --clearly illegal under 
Zimbabwean election law and certainly intimidating to MDC 
voters standing in line--encouraging support for the ruling 
party. 
 
11. (C) On March 29 and 30 diplomats saw a police officer in 
one case, and ZANU-PF officials in other cases, checking 
names off some sort of registry as people approached and 
"checked in" at tables set up near polling stations in 
Highfield.  The registrants were then ferried to nearby 
polling stations in pickup trucks to vote.  The diplomats 
questioned the officials involved and confirmed that they 
were members of ZANU-PF.  The officials warned the diplomats 
to leave.  We presume that the registry was for ruling party 
voters who had cast ballots for the ZANU-PF candidate or 
intended to do so, and would comprise the beneficiary list 
for rewards such as scarce mealie meal. 
 
12. (C) At one polling station in Highfield on March 29, 
Emboffs observed ZANU-PF youths entering and exiting without 
the required official identification badges.  The MDC polling 
agent there reported that they had harassed him and had 
broken his vehicle windshield while the polling agent was 
inside the polling station. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
13. (C) ZANU-PF employed its usual tactics of violence and 
intimidation and flaunted electoral and other laws willy 
nilly in the process.  The significant decrease in the number 
of votes cast for the MDC, in the face of widespread popular 
dissatisfaction with this regime, is a testament to the 
effectiveness of the GOZ intimidation machine.  Having been 
thrashed at the polls, we still expect the GOZ to claim 
victories in having increased its share of the votes cast in 
both constituencies.  And while 200 people spontaneously 
celebrated on the street in front of MDC's headquarters in 
downtown Harare when the results were announced on March 31, 
we would expect this jovial mood to give way very shortly to 
fear in the face of government retribution against MDC 
supporters in these two steadfast opposition constituencies. 
 
14. (C) Comment continued.  Cheating in an urban environment 
is more difficult, but how ZANU-PF let these elections slip 
away remains unanswered.  It is possible / probable that some 
phantom ballots were cast for ZANU-PF, but clearly not 
enough.  Prior to the elections, the MDC claimed voter roll 
rigging of 11,000 in Highfield and 8,000 in Kuwadzana, nearly 
equal to the total votes the MDC received.  ZANU-PF clearly 
did not pull out all the stops, and as a result the magic 
number of parliamentary seats they must obtain to reach the 
absolute two-thirds majority they seek remains at this time, 
still tantalizingly out of reach.  End Comment. 
SULLIVAN