US embassy cable - 03ACCRA632

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 000632 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, GH 
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY WINS FOURTH BY-ELECTION IN A ROW 
 
 
Classified By: Polchief Richard Kaminski, reason 1.5(B/D). 
 
NPP Wins Big 
------------ 
 
1.  (U) On March 25 the Ruling NPP party won its fourth 
consecutive by-election since assuming power in January 
of 2001, handily defeating the leading opposition 
candidate of the NDC, and two small party candidates. 
By a vote of 12,220 to 4,929 for the NDC (with 3,705 for 
the PNC candidate and 241 for the DPP nominee), the NPP 
retained the far northern constituency of Navrongo. While 
the NPP parliamentary majority remains slim (102 NPP MPs 
to 90 for the NDC, with seven small party and independent 
MPs split between the two), the strength of the victory 
underscores the present dominance of the NPP, which is able 
to marshal significantly superior resources and play 
local politics to perfection. 
 
Powers of Incumbency 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1993, 
the Navrongo constituency has been hotly contested between 
the NPP and NDC, the seat changing hands several times in 
very close votes in both general and by-elections (required 
this time after the NPP MP perished in a car accident 
several months ago). In anticipation of another close 
contest, the NPP national executive set up shop in the 
Navrongo constituency well before any of the other parties, 
and conducted an intensive door-to-door campaign from 
start to finish.  The Vice President, Aliu Mahama, a 
northerner, scoured the constituency the final two full 
days of the campaign, opening projects, promising 
assistance, and pressing for support.  Teams of workers 
from the Electricity Company of Ghana busied themselves 
hooking up electricity to small and previously neglected 
communities up to the day before the vote.  On election 
day, teams of NPP bicyclists wheeled the elderly and 
infirm to the polls.  Senior officials of the party and 
the government patrolled the polling stations, offering 
handshakes and backslaps to party agents overseeing 
votes (the agents attended four separate training 
sessions on their election-day duties).  Neither the DNC 
nor the two smaller parties could match the 
NPP campaign steamroller. Continuing splits within the 
NDC also hurt its chances, as it played catch-up without 
a full complement of campaign personalities on hand to 
offset the NPP's circulating collection of ruling party 
luminaries. 
 
Not All Was Squeaky Clean 
------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Before, during and after the election, the NDC 
made its now traditional accusations of vote buying, 
suggesting the NPP freely distributed roofing tin, sacks 
of rice, clothing, and other items of use to impoverished 
constituents, as well as making cash payments to village 
elders and traditional leaders.  While these accusations 
are unconfirmed, they are a traditional part of Ghanaian 
politics, and a practice the NDC excelled in when they 
ran the government.  Indeed, all parties quietly engage 
in such petty trading with the electorate.  Such 
pot-calling-the-kettle-black complaints do not register 
greatly with the Ghanaian public. 
 
4.  (SBU) Of greater concern for the integrity of the 
campaign, the Ghanaian National Police required the NDC 
to "reschedule" a series of campaign rallies for the 
duration of the Vice President's visit, the last two 
full days of the campaign.  The ostensible reason for 
the ban on NDC rallies was the need to avoid "clashes" 
between the two camps.  In effect, the NDC sat on its 
hands while the NPP brought in its heaviest campaign 
artillery at the very end of the contest.  This was the 
third time out of four by-elections the NPP government 
imposed such "rescheduling," once again mirroring tactics 
employed by the NDC when it held the reins of power. 
 
5.  (SBU) There were also many rumors of the use of 
"Macho Men," campaign thugs, to intimidate the opposition. 
Both the NDC and NPP feared the use of such bullying 
tactics, and NPP officials told us they did indeed bring 
"youths" to town, strictly out of concern, so they 
claimed, for NDC thugs intervening at polling stations. 
However, Polchief circulating on election day saw little 
sign of such Macho Men.  Election Commission officials 
ran a competent and secure process, and police, army, 
and other security personnel oversaw polling in a neutral 
and even-handed manner. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) With four by-election victories in a row (only one 
a close contest), the NPP appears nearly unbeatable in such 
concentrated contests, in which it can pour in resources 
and personnel far beyond the capacity of the other 
parties.  While Vice Presidential visits, last minute 
electricity hook-ups, and even "honorariums" for local 
dignitaries are traditional campaign practices, enforced 
"rescheduling" of opposition political rallies is another 
order of political shenanigan entirely.  It also appears 
to have been unnecessary, given the wide margin of 
victory.  There are two more by-elections pending in the 
near future, one an NPP seat and one an NDC constituency. 
NPP victories in those campaigns will thoroughly discourage 
an opposition already psychologically on the ropes.  The 
NPP is a popular government, its campaign team is 
experienced, well-resourced and determined, and it is 
intent on keeping its string of victories intact. 
Opposition success will be hard to come by.  End comment. 
YATES