US embassy cable - 03LAGOS673

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 000673 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y -- PARAGRAPH MARKINGS ADDED 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2013 
TAGS: ECON, ELAB, KDEM, NI, PGOV 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH NLC TO DISCUSS 
UNION PLANS TO STRIKE ON APRIL 1 
 
 
1. (C) Ambassador Jeter met with the Acting President of the 
National Labour Congress (NLC), Joseph Akinlaja, on Thursday, 
March 27, 2003, to discuss, inter alia, NLC plans to begin a 
nationwide civil service strike on April 1.  Akinlaja, who is 
also General Secretary of the National Union of Petroleum and 
Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), issued a 14-day ultimatum to 
the GON on March 13 to either implement a September 2002 
agreement to increase government salaries by 12.5 percent or 
face a nationwide indefinite strike by Nigeria's civil 
servants.  The decision to call the strike was made while NLC 
President Adams Oshiomhole was in Geneva attending an 
International Labor Organization conference.  Oshiomhole 
returned to Nigeria on March 30. 
 
 
2. (C) During the meeting, the Ambassador emphasized the 
importance of peaceful, transparent elections as the nation 
moves toward its first successful civilian-to-civilian 
transition. He expressed concern that a strike could increase 
tensions in an already volatile environment, adding that 
whatever happens in Nigeria will affect the rest of West 
Africa.  Akinlaja explained that GON mismanagement created 
the dispute; although the NLC tried to remain flexible in the 
interest of moving democracy forward, workers were no longer 
willing to make unnecessary sacrifices.  He dismissed claims 
that the GON could not afford the increase and stated that 
state governments were consulted when the decision was made 
to reduce the salary increase from 25 percent to 12.5 percent 
since many states are already behind in paying their civil 
servants.  Akinlaja assured the Ambassador that despite 
growing unhappiness among workers the NLC favors peace.  As 
many as 4000 NLC members will register to serve as election 
monitors; this fact is clear evidence, Akinlaja said, of the 
NLC's commitment to lead Nigeria toward free and fair 
elections. 
 
 
3. (C) Laboff spoke to Akinlaja on Monday, March 31, as the NLC 
finalized plans for the April 1 strike.  Akinlaja said the 
NLC would not call off the strike unless the GON reopens 
negotiations before midnight on March 31.  If the GON does 
not respond by midnight, civil servants will begin a 
three-day warning strike.  NLC leaders are meeting today to 
plan their next steps if the issue is not resolved by April 
4.  Akinlaja said that after the three-day warning strike the 
NLC could suspend further action until after the elections. 
 
 
4. (C) Comment: Although Oshiomhole returned to Nigeria only 
three days before the scheduled strike, he should still have 
enough time to work with President Obasanjo to defuse this 
impending strike action.  Oshiomhole has little to gain from 
a major labor crisis two weeks before the elections. While a 
three-day warning strike or symbolic protest is likely, a 
disruptive strike could exacerbate tensions and lead to 
accusations that the NLC, which has championed preservation 
of democracy, is purposely trying to sabotage the process. 
 
 
5. (C) Obasanjo may approve the increase only if he thinks the 
issue will derail the elections.  However, a GON-approved pay 
raise that state governments could not fund could be more 
destabilizing.  We therefore think that Oshiomhole will press 
for a solution that does not compromise his credibility 
within the NLC.  While a symbolic or three-day warning strike 
is probable, Oshiomhole will likely play up labor's 
commitment to free and fair elections in order to convince 
NLC members to postpone further action related to the 12.5 
percent increase until after the post-election transition in 
May. Oshiomhole may argue that as a quid pro quo for the 
NLC's deferring the strike, Obasanjo should agree to pay 
salary arrears and incremental salary increases until the 
12.5 percent agreement is fully implemented.  End Comment. 
HINSON-JONES