US embassy cable - 03HARARE636

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000636 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: TWO BY-ELECTIONS CRITICAL TO ZANU-PF PRESIDENTIAL 
SUCCESSION PLANNING 
 
REF: A. HARARE 322 
     B. HARARE 159 
     C. HARARE 151 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
1. (C) Upcoming parliamentary by-elections pit the MDC's 
National Youth Chairman, Nelson Chamisa, against ZANU-PF 
businessman David Mutasa in Kuwadzana, and MDC businessman 
Pearson Mungofa against ZANU-PF heavy Joseph Chinotimba.  The 
pre-election period has been marred by violence perpetrated 
mostly by members of the ruling party, and an estimated 
19,000 voters have been added to the rolls in the two 
constituencies.  Given the importance of the two seats to 
ZANU-PF in its bid to regain a two-thirds parliamentary 
majority, and the tactics it has employed thus far, we fully 
expect a ZANU-PF sweep of these two MDC strongholds.  End 
Summary. 
 
The Candidates 
-------------- 
 
2. (C) The upcoming parliamentary by elections on March 29 - 
30 in two Harare high-density suburbs pit the MDC's National 
Youth Chairman, Nelson Chamisa, against ZANU-PF businessman 
David Mutasa in Kuwadzana, and MDC businessman Pearson 
Mungofa against ZANU-PF heavy (and intellectual flyweight) 
Joseph Chinotimba.  Chamisa is the charismatic MDC national 
youth leader, who has pressed for a more confrontational but 
peaceful approach to the regime.  David Mutasa is an 
established Kuwadzana businessman / grain miller, who is 
licensed to distribute maize, which he has done repeatedly to 
ZANU-PF cardholders since the by-election was announced in 
January.  Mutasa told Poloff on March 25 that it was "a fact" 
that he had already won the seat.  Mungofa, the MDC candidate 
for Highfield, owns a diamond cutting firm and stationery 
supply house; he is an ex-ZAPU member, who lost a 
parliamentary election bid for Hwedza in 2000.  War Veteran 
Chinotimba was the self-described leader of the farm and 
factory invasions and the right-hand man of the late war vet 
leader, Hitler Hunzvi. 
 
The Carrot 
---------- 
 
3. (C) Even before the dates for the by-elections were 
announced in January, the independent press reported that the 
Grain Marketing Board (GMB) was distributing maize in 
Highfield and Kuwadzana only to ZANU-PF cardholders.  For 
most of the campaign period, Mutasa reportedly distributed 
maize at the controlled low price to ZANU-PF cardholders 
only.  According to ZANU-PF supporters at a March 25 rally 
attended by Poloff, the message was clear--Mutasa's provision 
of maize demonstrates that he is taking care of us. 
 
The Stick 
--------- 
 
4. (C) The pre-election period in Kuwadzana and Highfield has 
been marred by violence perpetrated predominately on members 
of the opposition by ruling party supporters.  National Youth 
Service members ("green bombers") deployed months in advance 
have operated out of ZANU-PF offices and public buildings, to 
beat and harass dozens of MDC supporters, including some MDC 
MPs, and the leadership of the USAID-funded Combined Harare 
Residents' Association (CHRA).  Agents of the Central 
Intelligence Organization and police officers have also been 
implicated in violence (Ref B).  On March 27, Polchief 
witnessed the stoning of a vehicle carrying the MDC 
candidate's campaign manager. 
 
5. (C) Of four rallies that the MDC scheduled for Kuwadzana, 
only one took place without disruption.  On March 16, when 
ZANU-PF supporters tried to prevent an MDC rally from taking 
place, and tensions rose, the police fired tear gas and live 
ammunition into the air.  In the ensuing melee the car in 
which MDC candidate Chamisa was riding, overturned and struck 
a pedestrian, killing her.  ZANU-PF rallies have come off 
almost daily without serious incident, save for people 
jockeying in queues for maize handouts. 
 
Extra Voters 
------------ 
 
6. (C) Despite numerous attempts to acquire copies of the 
voters' rolls, the MDC was able to obtain them less than a 
week before the elections after a High Court judge ordered 
the Registrar-General to produce the rolls.  According to a 
preliminary MDC audit of the lists, there are 8,000 
additional voters on the Kuwadzana roll, and 11,000 
additional voters on the Highfield roll, as compared to the 
rolls for the March 2002 presidential election.  In addition, 
the opposition party has found that many names have been 
changed slightly--which would prevent those individuals from 
voting--or stricken from the list altogether.  While a 
complete audit has been impossible in the limited time 
between the release of the rolls and the polling days, MDC 
officials have traveled door-to-door and confirmed that many 
of the added voters were unknown at the residence addresses 
provided, raising serious concern that large numbers of ghost 
voters have been added. 
 
Other Irregularities 
-------------------- 
 
7. (C) The MDC has also charged that the GOZ has delivered 
large supplies of maize and sugar to the constituencies and 
intends to sell these at the very low controlled prices on 
the voting days at locations distant from the polling places 
in an attempt to lure ordinary voters away from voting. 
Another well-placed source has reported that residents in the 
rural areas of Mount Darwin, Mutoko and Magunji have been 
told by their village heads to be ready to travel to 
Kuwadzana and Highfield in Harare to vote in the 
by-elections. 
 
8. (C) Officials of the government-appointed Electoral 
Supervisory Commission (ESC) said they have been traveling 
door-to-door in the constituencies explaining to residents 
how, if they cannot read, they can vote anyway.  The adult 
literacy rate is 88 percent in Zimbabwe.  Feigning illiteracy 
has been encouraged by the ruling party as a way to allow 
government polling officials to cast votes for the ruling 
party on a voter's behalf. 
 
Comment: Likely Outcomes 
------------------------ 
 
9. (C) The GOZ appears determined to regain a two-thirds 
parliamentary majority in order to pass a constitutional 
amendment allowing President Mugabe to appoint his successor. 
 We predict, therefore, that although the MDC won these 
constituencies by huge margins in the 2000 parliamentary 
elections and the 2002 presidential election, ZANU-PF will 
undertake the necessary electoral manipulation to win both 
seats this time around.  Announcement of ZANU-PF victories in 
the MDC strongholds on March 31--the day the results are 
expected and the expiration of the MDC ultimatum to the 
GOZ--could be a recipe for unrest.  If the ruling party wins 
Kuwadzana and Highfield and employs similar tactics in two 
other by-elections to be held soon--Harare Central and 
Zengeza--the ruling party would be one seat away from 
regaining the two-thirds parliamentary majority.  As the 
ruling party has demonstrated on numerous occasions in the 
past, it is prepared to use tactics necessary to force 
by-elections in a MDC-held constituencies and to "win" these 
seats.  End Comment. 
SULLIVAN