US embassy cable - 03ANKARA2022

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 002022 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR OES/PCI (ESHAW), OES/STC (CWOYTOWICZ) 
POSTS FOR ESTOFF 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV, EFIS 
SUBJECT: OESI PROPOSAL SUBMISSION: BLACK SEA LONG-TERM 
ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH NETWORK 
 
 
REF: A. SECSTATE 31684 
B. WOYTOWICZ - GUTMAN eMail, 3/19 
 
 
This cable was prepared in coordination with embassies in 
Bucharest, Kiev, Moscow, Sofia, and Tbilisi. Entitled 
"Start-up of a Black Sea Long Term Ecological Research 
Network" (LTER) we anticipate full participation from all 
Black Sea littorals. 
 
 
A. PROJECT TITLE: "Start-up of a Black Sea Long Term 
Ecological Research Network" 
 
 
B. DEPARTMENT STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE: Regional stability, 
economic development and S&T cooperation 
 
 
C. PROBLEM/ISSUE: A Black Sea academic recently estimated 
that there are more than 8,500 peer-reviewed studies on 
the Black Sea.  An oceanography conference in Ankara in 
October 2002 drew more than 400 professionally researched 
abstracts that were less than a year old on the Black and 
Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Very few studies are 
coordinated or systematically compared with others.  An 
integrated basin-wide approach is clearly needed and 
would help leverage strained budgets. Interest among 
academics in establishing an LTER is strong. 
 
 
Strengthening regional cooperation on Black Sea issues 
will simultaneously enhance U.S. S&T cooperation in the 
region and lead to a coordinated body of literature that 
documents changes in the Black Sea that affect economic 
development.  Such coordination can lead to an increase 
in science-driven decision-making, improved environmental 
protection, and increased economic stability.  It will 
also foster U.S. engagement in important scientific 
research during a period in which the EU Sixth Framework 
is projected to exert a tremendous pull on intellectual 
resources. 
 
 
D. ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The project will bring together 
institutions and scientists to coordinate their research 
and maximize their limited available research funding. 
For example, this project will enable regular sharing of 
limited core samples.  The result will be 
 
 
== local leadership and development of a coordinated body 
of data and literature that does not duplicate previous 
studies, picks up where short-term studies leave off and 
focuses on goals important to the environment of the 
Black Sea. 
 
 
== a revitalized Black Sea will stimulate economic growth 
through tourism, trade and development. 
 
 
== strengthened regional cooperation and academic 
communities 
 
 
== continuously maintained time series of high quality 
core measurements from several sites within the Black 
Sea. 
 
 
E. U.S. INTERESTS: 
 
 
== Half of the six Black Sea littoral countries are 
either allied NATO members or NATO aspirants, three are 
EU candidates, and they all require continuing 
international support.  It is within U.S. interests to 
remain engaged in these countries as they develop. The 
Black Sea is no longer a western neighbor: it is the 
west's backyard. 
 
 
== Of the six Black Sea littoral states, the U.S. has an 
existing S&T agreement with all except Georgia.  Staying 
close to S&T in this region is essential for continuing 
U.S. science leadership. 
 
 
F. ESF REQUIREMENT OF PROMOTING ECONOMIC OR POLITICAL 
STABILITY: The proposal uses diplomatic -- rather than 
development -- means to promote regional cooperation. 
Participants will be exposed to U.S. values and positions 
on issues that may be subject to future international 
negotiations.  Cooperation among academic institutions 
promotes regional political stability. 
 
 
G. PROPOSED RECIPIENT OF FUNDS AND PROPOSED VEHICLE FOR 
OBLIGING THE MONEY: Joint grant to the University of 
Washington and Institute of Marine Sciences at Middle 
East Technical University (METU). 
 
 
H. DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION: 
Based on results from recent NATO and National Science 
Foundation projects, there is abundant evidence that 
anthropogenic activities over the past three decades have 
caused changes in the chemistry, circulation and biology 
of the Black Sea.  Some scientists fear that global 
warming may cause further changes in the future.  The 
only way to understand what these changes are, what may 
be causing them, and how they will affect regional 
interests is to develop a time series of data, augmented 
by studies to understand specific evolving processes. The 
Long Term Ecological Research Program (LTER) offers an 
excellent framework for conducting such a time series. 
 
 
This OESI funded project will be the first phase in 
developing a time series. In order to prepare a proposal 
for an LTER, the project will assess each countries' 
capabilities, including their scientific and sampling 
capabilities. This assessment will require bringing 
together scientific representatives from all countries to 
summarize existing capabilities and identify new 
capabilities that are needed.  Initial meetings may 
include a small group of professionals specifically to 
focus on certain aspects of the project.  Larger meetings 
to look at capabilities in their totality will follow. A 
five-person steering committee to represent the 
participating countries will play an integral role 
throughout. 
 
 
The final step will be to prepare a specific proposal to 
initiate the LTER. This proposal will require detailed 
plans for sampling, measurement and data management and 
will list specific contributions from each country. The 
project's ultimate goal is prepare the LTER Proposal by 
January 2005. 
 
 
It is possible that long term funding could come from the 
countries themselves plus EU, NATO, and/or the National 
Science Foundation. 
 
 
James Murray (University of Washington) and Ilkay 
Salihoglu (IMS-METU) will initially coordinate the 
project.  Most meetings will be at IMS-METU in Erdemli, 
Turkey and possibly at the University of Washington, 
Seattle. 
 
 
I. PERFORMANCE TARGETS AND PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE: 
== January 1, 2004:  Project start 
== April 1, 2004: Reports by Working Groups from 
participating countries summarizing their capabilities 
and needs for maintaining time series measurements and 
data management. 
== June 2004: Meeting at IMS/METU in Erdemli of 
representatives from Black Sea countries and the U.S. to 
draft an outline of the LTER proposal. 
== September 2004: Meeting in the U.S. of the proposal 
writing team to prepare a draft proposal that will be 
distributed for internal review.  Alternate location: 
Edirmli. 
== January 1, 2005:  Final LTER proposal prepared. 
 
 
J. ASSUMPTIONS: 
== All countries support ecologically sound development 
of the Black Sea and recognize the role that research 
plays in the effort. 
 
 
== Research institutes participate and will be fully 
engaged. 
 
 
== Results will be achieved. 
 
 
K. TOTAL PROPOSED COST: $103,000 
This will support preliminary Working Group meetings in 
Turkey, Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia. 
There will be meeting of all countries at IMS in Erdemli, 
Turkey in June 2004 to outline the draft proposal and 
possibly at the University of Washington, Seattle in 
September 2004 to finalize the plan. There may also be 
meetings of the Steering Group. 
 
 
L. TOTAL REQUESTED OF OES: $103,000 
1.) National working group meetings 
     12,000    six at $2,000 
      1,000    materials and supplies 
 
 
2.)  International meeting in Edirmli (June) 
     20,000    travel and per diem for participants 
     12,000    travel and per diem for 3 U.S. experts 
     1,000     materials and supplies 
3.) International Meeting (September) 
     a.) Site: Seattle 
     35,000    travel and per diem for participants 
      5,000    five U.S. experts 
      1,000    materials and supplies 
 
 
    b.) Alternate site: Edirmli 
     20,000    travel and per diem for 10 
     20,000    travel and per diem for 5 U.S. experts 
      1,000    materials and supplies 
 
 
4.) Publication and translation of plan and 
recommendations:  10,000 
 
 
5.) Administrative costs (phone postage, fax, 
duplication) 
     3,000     12 months at $250/ month 
     3,000     video conferences 
 
 
TOTAL PROJECT COST: $ 103,000 
 
 
M. PRINCIPAL PARTNERS: 
First Phase partners: 
== University of Washington, School of Oceanography 
== Institute of Marine Sciences 
== Ankara Regional Environmental Hub 
 
 
Second Phase partners might include: 
== National Science Foundation 
== Long Term Ecological Research International (LTER 
International) 
== UNESCO-IOC 
 
 
N. ROLE AND RESOURCES THAT PARTNERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 
THE PROJECT: 
== University of Washington will be the lead agency and 
provide oversight and management of program. 
== Institute of Marine Sciences will provide liaison to 
local institutions and accommodation and meals for 
activities held at that location. 
 
 
O. OES SPONSORING OFFICE: 
== OES/STC