US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO524

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000524 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, SA/PD, S/CT, DS/DSS/ITA, 
DSERCC, INR/NESA, AND NEA/NGA 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  03-27-13 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, ECON, ASEC, PINR, CE, MV, IZ, Maldives, External Relations 
SUBJECT:  TFIZ01:  Maldives issues statement re Iraq; 
Religious groups down on war; More rallies planned 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo-SA/INS 03/26/03 e-mail 
 
-      (B) Colombo 512, and previous 
-      (C) Colombo 170 (all Notal) 
 
(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons:  1.5 (B, D). 
 
1.  (C) This update, focused on reaction to the war in 
Iraq in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, reviews: 
 
>> In its first public statement, the Maldivian 
government says it is "very concerned" about the war 
 
>> In Sri Lanka, religious groups issue statements 
against the war 
 
>> More anti-war rallies in the works 
 
>> Spotlight on two major Sri Lankan opponents of the 
war:  Alavi Moulana and Baddegama Samitha 
 
>> Local concerns sprout re potential economic problems 
caused by war, as the GSL seeks to dispel them 
 
(((Note:  Latest media coverage is provided Septel.))) 
 
========================= 
Maldives Issues Statement 
========================= 
 
2.  (U) The Maldivian government has issued its first 
public statement re the Iraq conflict.  Although only 
posted on the GoRM's website on March 26, the statement 
is dated March 21.  It was issued in the name of 
President Maumoon Gayoom.  In its key political 
reference, it states: 
 
"The Maldives is very concerned over the grave dangers 
to which the Muslim people of Iraq are being exposed by 
the war.  The government hopes that the military 
operations would end very soon, and with minimal 
destruction and injury to the brotherly people of Iraq. 
The Maldives desires peace, stability, and security for 
the region." 
 
3.  (U) The rest of the page-long statement reviews 
various measures the government is taking in reaction to 
the start of the war.  These measures include forming a 
government committee to monitor Gulf events, the 
cancellation of parties and receptions by the GoRM, and 
suspension of all overseas government travel unless 
deemed essential.  (Note:  The complete text of the 
statement was e-mailed to SA/INS in Ref A.) 
 
============================ 
Religious Groups Down on War 
============================ 
 
4.  (SBU) In Sri Lanka, two religious groups have 
recently issued statements against the war.  Colombo's 
Grand Mosque issued a statement on March 25, for 
example, which emphatically condemned the war. 
(Note:  The Grand Mosque is the major mosque in Colombo 
and the most important in the country.)  The statement 
asserted, in part, that "It is sad to note that the U.S. 
administration has ignored the appeals made by heads of 
state and religious leaders to further explore peaceful 
means of disarming Iraq...It is not too late for the 
United States to reconsider its decision." 
 
5.  (U) In the meantime, the National Christian Council 
(NCC), an umbrella organization for Protestant churches 
(Anglican, Presbyterian, Methodist), issued a statement 
on March 26 which "deplored" the start of the war.  The 
NCC statement went on to comment:  "The experiences we 
have had in our own country strengthens our conviction 
that dialogue and negotiation alone can evolve into 
permanent and lasting resolution."  (Note:  In other 
reaction, comments by local Roman Catholic Church 
prelates have mirrored the anti-war perspective of Pope 
John Paul II.  Major Buddhist and Hindu leaders have 
basically steered clear of commenting on the war, thus 
far.  See below, however, re anti-war role of Buddhist 
monk and MP Baddegama Samitha.) 
 
================================= 
New Anti-War Rallies in the Works 
================================= 
6.  (SBU) Thus far, anti-war demonstrations in Sri Lanka 
have neither been frequent, nor particularly large. 
Anti-war organizers, however, are trying again, and on 
Friday, March 28, several rallies are in the works at 
various sites.  From what we have picked up, at least 
two rallies are being planned in Colombo, including one 
at Galle Face Green, a large sea front park down-the- 
road from the embassy.  Both rallies are slated to kick 
off after Friday mid-day prayers, so that Muslims -- 
presumably energized by anti-war sermons -- can join in 
right from the mosque.  Various rallies are also planned 
in Muslim-dominated areas in the Eastern Province (where 
there are many radicalized Muslims due to the conflict 
with the Tamil Tigers), in parts of the south, and north 
of Colombo.  The sponsorship of these rallies continues 
to be pretty much evenly split among various Muslim 
groups and the radical left Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP). 
 
======================== 
Two Key Anti-War Figures 
======================== 
 
7.  (C) While the anti-war effort in Sri Lanka has not 
seemed to have taken off as of yet, two politicians are 
playing major roles in organizing opposition, thus far. 
The two, Alavi Moulana and Baddegama Samitha, are coming 
to the anti-war effort from different angles.  Moulana, 
71, the Governor of the Western Province (where Colombo 
is located) and a former People's Alliance (PA) 
minister, is a major Muslim leader, who has been 
canvassing the Muslim community for support against U.S. 
policy in Iraq.  A former trade unionist, Moulana is 
also trying to tap into his union connections.  In this 
effort, Moulana -- who is believed to maintain many 
connections in the Middle East -- has made some sharply 
critical comments about the U.S. 
 
8.  (C) The other leader, Venerable Baddegama Samitha, 
51, is a Buddhist monk and member of the PA, who was 
elected to Parliament in the December 2001 general 
election.  (Note:  Samitha is the first Buddhist monk 
ever to sit in Parliament.  He is a member, somewhat 
bizarrely given his clerical status, of a small 
Trotskyite faction of the PA.)  Within the PA, Samitha 
is a strongly pro-peace process voice, unlike some other 
elements in the grouping.  Re Iraq, however, Samitha has 
taken a sharply anti-U.S. tack, personally leading some 
anti-war demonstrations.  When he is not politicking, 
Samitha runs his own temple in the Galle area in the 
south of the country. 
 
============================= 
Local Concerns re the Economy 
============================= 
 
9.  (SBU) In other Iraq-related news, press articles and 
contacts are increasingly mentioning worries that Sri 
Lanka's economy could possibly be hurt by a long war. 
These concerns revolve around fears that gasoline prices 
might spike, that Sri Lankan workers in the Middle East 
might lose their jobs, that tourism might tank, and that 
tea sales might suffer.  (Note:  See Ref C, for a 
detailed review of these concerns.)  Thus far, the Sri 
Lankan government has worked hard to dispel the 
concerns.  The GSL, for example, has underscored that it 
has enough gas in reserve to handle needs if there is an 
emergency.  Moreover, the government has pointed out 
that hardly any of the over 700,000 Sri Lankan workers 
in the Middle East have had to come home and, thus, 
remittances remain intact.  While sales of tea are down 
in the important Middle Eastern market, the government 
believes that sales will rebound.  Finally, tourism has 
not seemed to suffer in any appreciable fashion. 
======= 
COMMENT 
======= 
 
10.  (C) The Maldivian government's statement was not 
particularly helpful, but not harmful either.  In making 
it, our guess is that the GoRM was reacting to its 
public, which is reportedly largely anti-war (the 
Maldives is 100 percent Muslim).  Re Sri Lanka, our 
assessment is that a wide swath of the populace is also 
against the war, but the depth of concern is vague and 
not very deep.  Only among the Muslim minority have we 
noticed anything approaching passion.  That said, 
although their efforts have barely managed to register, 
so far,  Muslims groups and the Sinhalese left appear 
committed  to trying to torque up their anti-war 
campaign.  END COMMENT. 
 
11.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
WILLS