US embassy cable - 03HARARE619

UNCLAS HARARE 000619 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
USDOC FOR 2037 DIEMOND 
PASS USTR ROSA WHITAKER 
TREASURY FOR ED BARBER AND C WILKINSON 
STATE PASS USAID FOR MARJORIE COPSON 
 
E. O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EINV, ETRD, ZI 
SUBJECT: Business and the Stayaway 
 
1. Summary: Zimbabwe's business sector remained mostly 
neutral during the opposition-led stayaway March 19-20. 
Most companies sympathize with many opposition aims, but 
are unwilling to test the wrath of the GOZ.  End summary. 
 
2. We have spoken to over a dozen multinational and local 
company heads about the stayaway.  These firms paid 
employees who were prevented from working during the 
stayaway.  Company reps acknowledged their operations 
suffered losses but none seemed overtly hostile to the 
opposition tactic.  However, several businessmen were 
uncomfortable with the prospect of further stayaways, 
arguing that industry could not sustain additional 
hardship. 
 
Cost of Stayaways 
----------------- 
3. Local economists agree that the cost of stayaways is 
formidable.  Using very crude data of 70 percent 
production stoppage for two of 250 annual workdays, an 
industry economist suggested the stayaway may have shaved 
as much as .4 percent from 2003 GDP.  Since many 
companies are already operating at less than full 
capacity, however, they may be able to recoup production 
losses over the next weeks, mitigating any negative 
impact on national output. 
 
The Discomfort of Taking Sides 
------------------------------ 
4. A senior Barclays executive received a phone call from 
a high MDC official urging that Barclays not open on the 
strike's second day.  In part due to its British origins, 
this made Barclays extremely uncomfortable, although the 
bank was largely closed on the second day anyway. 
Another businessman, Anthony Mandiwanza, head of the 
Dairiboard as well as the Confederation of Zimbabwe 
Industries, said the stayaway was not relevant for 
businesses the day before the strike.  He took heavy 
criticism in the independent press for this remark. 
 
Comment 
------- 
5. Contending with a government that intuitively 
distrusts the private sector, companies are loath to 
publicly support stayaways or other political protest. 
White commercial farmers paid dearly for backing the 
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in last year's 
elections.  GOZ officials have already argued that pro- 
MDC firms "shut out" employees from work.  Where 
possible, we expect the private sector will continue to 
steer clear of open political engagement. 
 
Sullivan