US embassy cable - 94DHAKA6796

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 006796 
 
 
DEPT FOR SA/PAB; LONDON FOR TUELLER 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PGOV, BG 
SUBJECT: VIOLENCE ERUPTS DURING HASINA'S "TRAIN MARCH;" 
          AWAMI LEAGUE ALLEGES ASSASINATION ATTEMPT 
 
REF:  DHAKA 6682 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY: THE OPPOSITION AWAMI LEAGUE ALLEGES THAT 
ITS LEADER SHEIKH HASINA WAS TARGET OF AN ASSASSINATION 
ATTEMPT SEP 23 DURING A "WHISTLESTOP" RAIL TOUR OF 
WESTERN BANGLADESH.  ALTHOUGH GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION 
SUPPORTERS CLASHED, WE HAVE SO FAR SEEN NO EVIDENCE THAT 
AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT TOOK PLACE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  CLASHES BETWEEN RULING BANGLADESH NATIONALIST PARTY 
(BNP) AND OPPOSITION AWAMI LEAGUE SUPPORTERS BROKE OUT 
AT THE ISHURDI AND NATORE TRAIN STATIONS IN WESTERN 
BANGLADESH SEPTEMBER 23, COINCIDING WITH STOPS BY AWAMI 
LEAGUE (AL) CHIEF AND LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION SHEIKH 
HASINA.  HASINA HAS BEEN ON A PROLONGED "WHISTLESTOP" 
TOUR--A "TRAIN MARCH"--OF THE REGION TO DRUM UP SUPPORT 
FOR THE OPPOSITION'S SEPTEMBER 27 RAIL AND HIGHWAY 
BLOCKADE AND ITS DEMAND FOR A CARETAKER GOVERNMENT TO 
OVERSEE THE COUNTRY'S NEXT GENERAL ELECTION. 
 
4.  ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, BNP PARTISANS ARMED WITH 
BLUNT WEAPONS AND HOMEMADE FIRECRACKERS ATTACKED AL 
SUPPORTERS PROCEEDING TO THE ISHURDI STATION.  POLICE 
OPENED FIRE AT ONE POINT TO BRING THE SITUATION UNDER 
CONTROL.  REPORTS ALSO QUOTED WITNESSES WHO SAID 
HASINA'S RAIL CAR WAS FIRED UPON AS IT PULLED INTO THE 
NATORE STATION.  FIRECRACKERS WERE TOSSED AS HASINA 
ADDRESSED CROWDS FROM HER COMPARTMENT.  THE CLASHES LEFT 
BETWEEN 60-100 INJURED, NONE CRITICALLY. 
 
5.  AWAMI LEAGUE STALWARTS BLAMED THE VIOLENCE ON THE 
BNP GOVERNMENT.  AWAMI LEAGUE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 
SECRETARY KAISER CHOWDHURY CALLED POLOFF SEPTEMBER 23 TO 
SAY THAT "THE LEADER HAS BEEN FIRED UPON."  AL DEPUTY 
LEADER ABDUS SAMAD AZAD TOLD REPORTERS THAT "BNP 
TERRORISTS" HAD LAUNCHED A PLANNED ATTACK AGAINST HASINA 
AND CREATED A "REIGN OF TERROR" AT ISHURDI AND NATORE. 
AWAMI LEAGUE SECRETARY GENERAL ZILLUR RAHMAN DECRIED THE 
"ASSASINATION ATTEMPT," WHICH HE SAID WAS "MASTERMINDED 
BY THE HIGEST QUARTERS OF THE PRESENT ADMINISTRATION." 
HASIA VOWED THAT NO ATTACK WOULD DETER THE MOVEMENT FO 
CARETAKER GOVERNMENT, AND THAT SHE STOOD READY O "GIVE 
MY OWN BLOOD." 
 
6.  THE GOVERNMENT, FO ITS PART, ISSUED A PRESS NOTE 
SEPTEMBER 24 STATNG A PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION HAD 
FOUND NO TRUTHIN THE ALLEGATIN THAT HASINA'S TRAIN WAS 
SHOT A.  IN REALITY, READ THE NOTE, HASINA ADDRESSED 
COWDS AT WAYSIDE STATIONS IN A PEACEFUL ATMOSPHERE,AND 
SUFFICIENT POLICE WERE MOBILIZED FOR HER SAFETY. 
"UNRULY SUPPORTERS" OF OPPOSING POLITICAL PARTIES WERE 
PRESENT IN NATORE AND ISHURDI, THROWING FIRECRACKERS, 
BUT POLICE RESTORED ORDER QUICKLY.  A FRONT-PAGE 
EDITORIAL IN THE PRO-BNP ENGLISH DAILY "NEW NATION" 
SARCASTICALLY POINTED OUT THAT THIS WAS NOT THE FIRST 
TIME HASINA HAD TRIED TO DRAMATIZE FOR POLITICAL GAIN 
ALLEGED ATTEMPTS ON HER LIFE. 
 
7.  THE AWAMI LEAGUE HAS NOT PRESSED THE GOVERNMENT FOR 
A FOLLOW-UP INVESTIGATION OF THE INCIDENTS AT ISHURDI 
AND NATORE, ALTHOUGH TOP AWAMI LEAGUE ADVISOR KIBRIA 
FAXED THE AMBASSADOR EXPRESSING "DEEP CONCERN ABOUT THE 
ATTACK ON THE LIFE OF SHEIKH HASINA."  ACCORDING TO 
KIBRIA, "THE GRAVE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TERROR CAMPAIGN 
BY THE GOVERNMENT PARTY" WILL BECOME CLEAR WHEN ALL THE 
FACTS ARE OUT.  KIBRIA DID NOT SPECIFY WHEN THIS MIGHT 
HAPPEN. 
 
COMMENT 
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8.  WE HAVE LITTLE FACTUAL BASIS TO SORT OUT CONFLICTING 
CLAIMS AND DETERMINE WHETHER HASINA WAS THE TARGET OF AN 
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT.  (WE WILL REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT 
NEW INFORMATION.)  HOWEVER, CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE 
SUGGESTS THAT THE CLASHES WERE NOT PART OF A 
PREMEDITATED ATTEMPT ON HER LIFE.  THE MOST BELIEVABLE 
ACCOUNTS WE HAVE HEARD BLAME THE VIOLENCE ON STATE 
MINISTER FAZLUR RAHMAN, WHO HAILS FROM NEAR NATORE AND 
WHOSE OWN BNP RALLY THERE WAS DISRUPTED BY OPPOSITION 
AWAMI LEAGUE SUPPORTERS A FEW WEEKS EARLIER.  RAHMAN 
ALLEGEDLY HELD A GRUDGE AND SENT OUT SOME OF HIS "BOYS" 
TO BREAK UP HASINA'S RALLY.  OTHER REPORTS SUGGEST THE 
AWAMI LEAGUE KNEW IT WOULD FACE BNP DEMONSTRATIONS IN 
THE REGION BEFORE THE TRAIN SET OUT THE MORNING OF THE 
23RD.  IN ADDITION, ALL ACCOUNTS AGREE THAT HASINA 
COMPLETED HER SPEECHES AT ISHURDI AND NATORE AND DID NOT 
FLEE OR SEEK COVER DESPITE THE ALLEGED SHOTS AT HER 
TRAIN.  WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THE AWAMI LEAGUE HAS 
SOUGHT TO WHIP UP POPULAR INDIGNATION OVER THE INCIDENTS 
AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE ITS PUBLIC DENUNCIATIONS 
OF GOVERNMENT "TERRORISM." 
 
MERRILL