US embassy cable - 03COLOMBO513

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 COLOMBO 000513 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  3-26-13 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, PINS, CE, NO, JA, CH, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Peace process update:  More re sinking of 
Chinese fishing boat; Tamil leader takes on the LTTE 
 
Refs:  (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 251820Z Mar 03 
 
-      (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 251313Z Mar 03 
-      (C) Colombo 485 
-      (D) Colombo 381 
-      (E) Colombo 261 
 
(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b, d) 
 
1.  (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews 
the following: 
 
>> Sinking of Chinese fishing boat still under 
investigation, but Tigers look more-and-more like the 
culprits 
 
>> In brave but dangerous move, Tamil leader hits out at 
the Tigers 
 
>> Unconfirmed reports that the Tigers are killing 
opponents 
 
>> Alliance between major Opposition grouping and 
radical JVP close, but no agreement yet on how to handle 
peace process 
 
>> Latest poll indicates strong public support for the 
peace process 
 
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More on Sinking of Chinese Boat 
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2.  (SBU) The Sri Lankan government and the peace process 
monitors continue to investigate the March 20 attack on 
a Chinese fishing trawler off the northeastern coast of 
Sri Lanka.  (Note:  Seventeen crewmen, Chinese and Sri 
Lankan, are believed to have died in the incident. 
Ref C reviews the incident in additional detail.)  The 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) organization has 
been accused of perpetrating the attack, although the 
group continues to deny any involvement.  The Sri Lankan 
government has stated that it has now recovered the 
bodies of seven victims, and is continuing its search 
operations for the rest who are missing and presumed 
dead.  In addition, the GSL has released a press 
statement condemning the "unprovoked" attack (without 
mentioning the LTTE) (Ref B).  For its part, China -- 
per Ref A statement by the Chinese MFA -- continues to 
demand a full-and-complete investigation into the 
incident. 
 
3.  (C) In the meantime, the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka 
Monitoring Mission (SLMM) expects to present its 
findings re the incident to the GSL and LTTE on 
March 28.  A public statement by the SLMM will be 
released two or three days later.  When pressed, SLMM 
Spokesman Teitor Torkelson told us that the monitors 
could not confirm that the LTTE sunk the boat.  That 
said, based on the totality of the evidence, the SLMM 
strongly believes the LTTE is responsible.  He expects 
that the SLMM's forthcoming press release will implicate 
the LTTE without directly assigning blame. 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT:  The sinking of the vessel remains 
mysterious.  All indications are that the LTTE did 
indeed attack and sink the fishing trawler, but there is 
no apparent rationale for the group doing so.  The LTTE 
has no bone to pick with China, and the group has not 
attacked fishing boats, in general, in the past.  As 
reported in Ref C, however, the Sea Tigers (the LTTE's 
"navy") appear to be on a hair trigger following recent 
confrontations with the Sri Lankan navy and it is 
possible they are lashing out.  END COMMENT. 
 
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Tamil Leader Hits Out at LTTE 
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5.  (C) In a courageous, but potentially dangerous move, 
senior Tamil leader V. Anandasangaree has publicly hit 
out at the LTTE.  Anandasangaree, head of the Tamil 
United Liberation Front (TULF) and a senior MP, stated 
publicly on March 23 that he does not accept the LTTE's 
claim to be "the sole representative of the Tamil 
people."  (Note:  Anandasangaree has often voiced 
similar opinions about the LTTE to Mission personnel 
during private conversations in the past, but this is 
the first time he has opened up in public.)  He went on 
to complain that the LTTE would not permit the TULF to 
commemorate the life and works of its former leader, A. 
Amirthalingam, who was assassinated by the LTTE in July 
1989 in Colombo. 
 
6.  (C) In addition to Anandasangaree, a second TULF MP 
from Jaffna, N. Raviraj, appears to be trying to 
distance himself from the LTTE.  Referring to a recent 
announcement that there might be local elections in the 
north and east (Ref A), Raviraj announced publicly on 
March 24 that he might run independently of the Tamil 
National Alliance (TNA) (apparently for the job of mayor 
of Jaffna, a post which he formerly held).  (Note:  The 
TNA is composed of four generally pro-LTTE Tamil 
parties, including the TULF, which is its major 
constituent element.  Most members of the TNA are pro- 
LTTE.)  (Note:  The Ambassador is scheduled to meet with 
Raviraj next week and will get his take on the situation 
at that time.) 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  Anandasangaree's decision to criticize 
the LTTE in public is a brave one.  His comments may 
have been prompted by the LTTE's recent decision not to 
permit the reopening of Jaffna's Library (Ref E).  This 
decision upset Ananadasangaree and other Tamils, who had 
worked long-and-hard to reopen the cultural landmark. 
In any case, Anandasangaree's decision to go public is a 
potentially dangerous one, as highlighted by what 
happened to Amirthalingam (see above) and what may be 
happening to other opponents of the LTTE (see below). 
END COMMENT. 
 
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LTTE Reportedly Kills Opponents 
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8.  (SBU) In other news regarding the LTTE and the Tamil 
community-at-large, the past week has seen multiple 
unconfirmed reports of the LTTE assassinating, 
intimidating, and abducting mainly Tamil opponents.  On 
March 18, for example, a former soldier in the Sri 
Lankan army of Tamil ethnicity was killed in Mount 
Lavinia, a city located just south of Colombo.  Despite 
reports claiming that the killing was carried out by the 
LTTE (which, as usual, denies involvement), there has 
been no confirmation of who perpetrated the killing.  In 
the meantime, additional allegations involving the LTTE 
have recently surfaced and include: 
 
-- The LTTE allegedly assassinating numerous government 
intelligence sources during the past year; 
 
-- A recent attempt to deliver a letter bomb to a 
military informant, which exploded and injured several 
people (but not the intended victim); 
 
-- Reported use of intimidation and violence to prevent 
civilians from reporting LTTE-related incidents to the 
SLMM; and, 
 
-- Continued abduction/disappearances of LTTE opponents. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Mission is looking into this uptick in 
reports of egregious human rights violations by the 
LTTE, especially the reports that they are killing 
opponents.  (Note:  FYI.  Anandasangaree, in a recent 
conversation with the Ambassador, asserted that the LTTE 
was involved in many killings of Tamil opponents.)  Many 
of the reports seem murky, however, and are difficult to 
confirm.  It is also not clear whether the government is 
investigating the cases fully. (Note:  Some suspect that 
the government is not pressing the cases because it 
feels that to do so might jeopardize the peace process, 
or perhaps because Tamil witnesses do not want to 
cooperate.)  END COMMENT. 
 
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PA and JVP near Alliance 
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10.  (C) The People's Alliance (PA), the main Opposition 
grouping, and the radical Janantha Vimukthi Peramuna 
(JVP) party continue their efforts to form an alliance. 
As reported previously (see Ref D), the parties are 
believed close to sealing a deal.  According to 
contacts, however, one of the key issues dividing the 
two parties is how to deal with the peace process. 
Compared with the PA, the JVP is much, much more anti- 
peace process and does not want to endorse the PA plan 
for constitutional devolution sent to Parliament by 
President Kumaratunga, the PA leader, in August 2000. 
(Note:  The plan was not approved by Parliament at that 
time.) 
 
11.  (C) COMMENT:  It is understandable that the 
historical differences between the two parties re the 
peace process may create some difficulty in coming to a 
compromise.  The JVP has vociferously opposed any 
agreement that devolves any power to the north and east. 
The PA, on the other hand, has had a moderate approach 
to the peace process for quite some time (although some 
PA elements have taken a more critical stance of late). 
While overcoming differences may be difficult, 
indications are that the JVP and PA will find a way to 
reach a compromise and forge an alliance in the coming 
days, weeks, or months.  END COMMENT. 
 
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Public Supports Peace Process 
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12.  (C)  The latest poll figures continue to show 
overwhelming support for the peace process.  The latest 
edition of a poll by a well-respected local NGO (the 
Center for Policy Alternatives) indicates that 83.7 
percent of the population supports the peace process. 
Since the signing of the ceasefire agreement in February 
2002, support for the process has remained relatively 
stable at between about 83 and 87 percent.  Norwegian 
facilitation of the talks also maintains a plurality of 
support by a substantial margin (with neutral or unknown 
response receiving substantial numbers).  The SLMM, 
however, is seen as being impartial and effective by 
only a small plurality of the populace.  According to 
the poll's results, the Tamil-speaking community is much 
more pro-SLMM than the majority Sinhalese community. 
 
13.  (C) COMMENT:  Despite recent, strident criticism 
from some in the south aimed at the peace process, the 
latest poll confirms our sense that the public-at-large 
continues to support the ceasefire and discussions with 
the LTTE.  The United National Party (UNP) government, 
which has problems in such areas as the economy, is 
clearly benefiting from this support, as it sees its 
popular standing buoyed by its management of peace- 
related issues.  END COMMENT. 
 
14.  (U) Minimize considered. 
WILLS