US embassy cable - 03LAGOS630

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000630 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CAIRO FOR POL -- MAXSTADT 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2013 
TAGS: CASC, EPET, ENRG, PINS, PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ETHNIC POLITICS AND NIGER DELTA CRISIS 
 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 00558 
     B. ABUJA 00555 
     C. ABUJA 00554 
     D. LAGOS 624 
     E. LAGOS 575 
     F. LAGOS 568 
 
 
Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES.  REASON:  1.5 (B & D) 
 
 
. 
 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  The violent Ijaw confrontations of the 
Itsekiri in the oil-rich Escravos area result from their 
fierce political competition to control the South-west Warri 
Local Government.  The chairmanship of this local government 
is seen as a lynchpin to the Ijaw's economic survival.  If 
their demands are not met, the Ijaw intend to keep fighting 
to disrupt the April 12 local elections.  Although the Ijaw's 
stated target is neither the oil companies nor the Federal 
Government, ethnic dimensions of outside groups color the 
Ijaws' views of Niger Delta politics and the larger polity. 
Among the many stakes in the crisis is the legitimacy of the 
election outcome.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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IJAW MOTIVATIONS & INTENT TO DISRUPT LOCAL ELECTIONS 
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2.  (C) Joshua Fumodoh (strictly protect), former president 
of the Ijaw National Congress, confirms that Ijaw youths 
intend to "correct the anomaly" of the distribution of wards 
in the South-west Warri Local Government of Delta State "by 
any means necessary" before local elections take place.  Oil 
companies are not the target.  The target is strictly the 
balance of political power between Ijaw and Itsekiri, the two 
main riverine groups of the area.  The Ijaw regard themselves 
as the majority ethnic group in this area and the Itsekiri as 
a minority group.  Under redistricting enacted after the 1999 
elections, 6 of the 10 wards of this local government were 
demarcated to the Itsekiri, according to Fumodoh.  The Ijaw 
view the chairmanship to the local government as paramount to 
allocating government revenue, and they see government as the 
region's sole means of economic resources outside of the oil 
industry.  The Ijaw see attaining the local government 
chairmanship as a life-or-death issue. 
 
 
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IJAW AND NIGER DELTA ETHNIC POLITICS 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
3.  (C) The Ijaw do not think President Obasanjo is a neutral 
actor in the crisis, due in part to his Yoruba ethnic 
heritage.  The Ijaw believe the Itsekiri are actually Yoruba 
affiliates, saying the Itsekiri actually "speak Yoruba with 
an accent."  Fumudoh says, "Despite Obasanjo's style to 
appear indifferent and aloof regarding all conflict 
situations, we believe he feels strongly about these issues 
on the inside.  All the Ijaw want is for the president to be 
fair.  We see him as siding with the Itsekiri, though he 
covers up his true feelings through his official language." 
This belief was further fueled over the weekend of March 
22-23 by reports of press statements given by Afenifere and 
the Yoruba Council of Elders (traditional Yoruba political 
interest groups) condemning the Ijaw's moves against the 
Itsekiri.  Fumodoh said the reports indicate that Yoruba 
groups would "take up arms against the Ijaw" if the fighting 
does not end. 
 
 
4.  (C) As discussed in ref B, the Army Chief of Staff is 
regarded by the Ijaw as a member of the Isoko ethnic group, a 
subset of the Urhobo group.  Fumodoh says the Urhobo, as a 
mainland and not riverine ethnic group, are generally seen as 
neutral and outside this conflict between Ijaw and Itsekiri 
(septel will explain complexities and contradictions of this 
issue).  Delta State Governor James Ibori is generally 
respected by the Ijaw as a peace-maker for his former roles 
in the ethnic conflict, although his mother is Itsekiri and 
his father Urhobo (septel to follow on Warri-Niger Delta 
politics). 
 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT.  Although the Ijaw may outnumber the 
Itsekiri nation-wide, Fumudoh has previously conceded to 
poloffs that the Ijaw constituency's status within a 
geopolitical area depends heavily on the boundary 
demarcations.  Gerrymandering directly impacts Ijaw political 
power.  The Ijaw believe that oil production has disrupted 
their traditional means of economic sustenance (i.e. 
fishing), and that government provides their only alternate 
means of survival.  Until a third option of viable private 
sector employment develops in their region, or until the 
spoils of power are seen by constituents as being distributed 
among minority and majority groups alike, the Ijaw are 
unlikely to end their quest for political power by any means 
necessary.  At risk are lives, long-term stability for oil 
production, property, and the legitimacy of local government 
elections in the Niger Delta.  END COMMENT. 
HINSON-JONES