US embassy cable - 94DUSHANBE2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 02006 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS EUR/ISCA; 
USMISSION USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE; 
MOSCOW FOR POL (PLEASE PASS AMBASSADOR ESCUDERO) 
WARSAW FOR JACK ZETKULIK 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: GOV, PREL, PINR, PHUM, TI, RS 
SUBJECT: FORMER PRIME MINISTER ABDULLAJANOV NOMINATED FOR 
PRESIDENT IN WHAT IS SHAPING UP AS A REAL HORSERACE 
 
REF:  A) MOSCOW 22287, B) DUSHANBE 2003, 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  THE LENINABAD REGION HAS OVERWHELMINGLY NOMINATED 
FORMER PRIME MINISTER ABDULLAJANOV FOR PRESIDENT. HE JOINS 
PARLIAMENT CHAIRMAN RAHMONOV IN THE RACE WHICH WILL BE DECIDED IN 
THE SEPTEMBER 25 ELECTION.  ABDULLAJANOV, WHO SERVED BOTH THE 
OPPOSITION AND THE RAHMONOV GOVERNMENTS AS PRIME MINISTER, 
EMERGES AS A VERY STRONG CANDIDATE, POSSIBLY THE INITIAL 
FAVORITE.  OPPOSITIONISTS' PUBLIC CONCERNS/THREATS REGARDING THE 
CONSEQUENCES OF A ONE-MAN RACE APPEAR MOLLIFIED.  WE SEE 
ABDULAJANOV LIKELY TO CAPITALIZE ON BROAD DISSATISFACTION WITH 
THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WHICH HAS BEEN UNABLE TO STOP THE SLIDE 
INTO ECONOMIC CHAOS AND IS WIDELY RESENTED FOR ITS CORRUPTION AND 
HEAVY HANDEDNESS. PUBLIC CHARGES OF CORRUPTION AGAINST 
ABDULAJANOV WILL UNDERMINE HIS CAMPAIGN AS WELL, HOWEVER.  THIS 
IS A HIGH STAKES RACE IN WHICH BOTH SIDES ARE LIKELY TO PULL OUT 
ALL STOPS.  INTERNATIONAL MONITORING COULD BE DECISIVE IN 
DETERMINING WHETHER TAJIKISTAN'S VOTERS HAVE A CHANCE TO CAST 
THEIR VOTES IN A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION.  END SUMMARY 
 
3.  THE LENINABAD REGIONAL ASSEMBLY MEETING IN SPECIAL SESSION 
AUGUST 6 NOMINATED ABDULMALIK ABDULAJANOV, FORMER PRIME MINISTER 
AND CURRENTLY TAJIKISTAN'S AMBASSADOR IN MOSCOW, AS THE REGION'S 
PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE.  HE JOINS CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
(AND CURRENTLY CHIEF OF STATE) EMOMALI RAHMONOV IN THE RACE FOR 
PRESIDENT TO BE DECIDED IN NATIONAL ELECTIONS SEPTEMBER 25 (REFS 
A AND B). 
 
4.  THE KEENLY WATCHED LENINABAD SESSION PRODUCED THREE 
CANDIDATES FOR THE REGIONAL NOMINATION: ABDULAJANOV, RAHMONOV AND 
A PROMINENT UZBEK BUSINESSMAN FROM KANIBODAM DISTRICT (YUSUFJON 
AHMADOV). AHMADOV IMMEDIATELY WITHDREW HIS NAME FROM 
CONSIDERATION SETTING UP A HEAD-TO-HEAD CONFRONTATION BETWEEN 
RAHMONOV AND ABDULLAJANOV.  IN A SECRET BALLOT, ABDULAJANOV WAS 
THE EASY WINNER COLLECTING 137 VOTES TO RAHMONOV'S 33. GOTI 
CENTRAL MEDIA REPORTED THE LENINABAD ASSEMBLY RESULT ONE DAY 
AFTER THE ACTION BUT OMITED THE FACT THAT THERE HAD BEEN A HEAD 
TO HEAD CONTEST BETWEEN ABDULLAJANOV AND RAHMONOV AND THAT THE 
ABDULLAJANOV HAD BEEN AS DECISIVE AS IT WAS. 
 
5.  THE LENINABAD ACTION CAME IN THE WAKE OF THE NOMINATION OF 
RAHMONOV BY THE KHATLON REGIONAL ASSEMBLY AND BY THE NATIONAL 
YOUTH FEDERATION (REF B).  BOTH BODIES HAD SENT FORMAL MESSAGES 
TO THE LENINABAD REGIONAL SESSION URGING THAT IT JOIN IN A 
CONSENSUS ENDORSEMENT OF RAHMONOV. 
 
6.  WHILE THERE HAS BEEN NO OPPOSITION REACTION TO ABDULAJANOV'S 
NOMINATION, STATEMENTS ON THE EVE OF THE LENINABAD NOMINATION HAD 
INCLUDED WARNINGS ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF A ONE-MAN RACE FOR 
PRESIDENT.  LEADER OF TAJIKISTAN'S REFUGEE ORGANIZATION IN MOSCOW 
AND OPPOSITIONIST HABIB SANGINOV WAS QUOTED ON RADIO KHORASAN 
(IRAN) AS HAVING STATED THAT IF RAHMONOV EMERGED AS THE ONLY 
CANDIDATE, THE SEPTEMBER 25 VOTE COULD NOT BE CONSIDERED TO BE A 
REAL ELECTION.  OPPOSITION COMMANDER REDZUAN IN THE SAME 
BROADCAST WAS QUOTED AS STATING THAT IF RAHMONOV WERE THE ONLY 
NOMINEE THEN THE OPPOSITION WOULD CAST ITS VOTE WITH ROCKETS. 
THERE WILL BE MUCH ATTENTION PAID TO THE FORMAL AND INFORMAL 
OPPOSITION REACTION TO THE NOMINATION OF ABDULAJANOV, WHO WAS 
PRIME MINISTER IN THE BRIEF OPPOSITION GOVERNMENT (SEPTEMBER- 
NOVEMBER 1992) AS WELL AS PRIME MINISTER UNDER RAHMONOV (NOVEMBER 
1992 - DECEMBER 1993).  (ABDULAJANOV WAS ALSO MINISTER OF BREAD 
AND BRIEFLY PRIME MINISTER UNDER TAJIKISTAN'S FIRST ELECTED 
PRESIDENT, RAHMON NABIYEV.) 
 
7.  STILL TO COME ARE POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS BY THE GORNO 
BADAKHSHAN AUTONOMOUS REGIONAL ASSEMBLY AS WELL AS POSSIBLE 
ACTION BY DUSHANBE AND OTHER DISTRICTS IN THE HISSAR AND GARM 
VALLEYS.  THE COMMUNIST PARTY AND THE NEW POLITICAL PARTY, "THE 
PARTY FOR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RENEWAL," AS WELL AS THE 
NATIONAL LABOR FEDERATION MAY NOMINATE OTHER CANDIDATES ALTHOUGH 
AT THIS POINT THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY. RATHER, IF THEY NINATE 
ANYONE AT ALL, THEY WOULD LIKELY LINE UP BEHIND ABDULAJANOV OR 
RAHMONOV. THE LABOR FEDERATION, DOMINATED BY KULYABIS, WILL 
ALMOST CERTAINLY BACK RAHMONOV. 
 
8.  COMMENT/ANALYSIS:  WITH ABDULAJANOV IN THE CONTEST, THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AUTOMATICALLY BECOMES A REAL HORSE RACE. 
WE ESTIMATE THAT ABDULAJANOV CAN COUNT ON STRONG SUPPORT IN HIS 
HOME REGION OF LENINABAD, AND AMONG TAJIKISTAN'S UZBEK COMMUNITY 
WHICH MAKES UP APPROXIMATELY 24 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION.  OTHER 
MINORITIES WILL LIKELY ALSO BACK ABDULAJANOV.  THE FORMER 
OPPOSITION HOMELANDS IN THE GARM VALLEY, GORNO BADAKHSHAN AND THE 
GARM AND PAMIRI COMMUNITIES IN FORMER KURGAN TYUBE REGION WOULD 
ALMOST CERTAINLY PREFER ABDULAJANOV TO RAHMONOV -- IF THEY CHOOSE 
TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTION.  THIS WOULD APPEAR TO LEAVE ONLY 
THE LESS THAN UNITED KULYAB CLAN AS CLEARLY IN RAHMONOV'S COLUMN. 
 
MOREOVER, THE RAPID SLIDE INTO ECONOMIC CHAOS ENTAILING UNPAID 
SALARIES AND PENSIONS AND CURRENCY SHORTAGES WILL INEVITABLY CUT 
DEEPLY INTO ANY PRO-RAHMONOV VOTE.  ON THE FACE OF IT, IT WOULD 
APPEAR THAT ABDULAJANOV EMERGES AS THE EARLY FAVORITE IN THE 
RACE. 
 
9.  SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS MAY INTRUDE, HOWEVER. 
THE CIVIL WAR OF 1992 BEGAN AS A NORTH-SOUTH CONFRONTATION 
BETWEEN THE GARM/PAMIRI REGIONS AND THE NORTHERN (LENINABAD) 
REGION. THE LENINABAD POLITICAL LEADERSHIP DREW THE KULYABIS INTO 
THE STRUGGLE TRANSFORMING IT INTO A SOUTH-SOUTH CONFLICT WITH 
LENINABAD ON THE SIDELINES.  RECENTLY, GROWING ANIMOSITY BETWEEN 
KULYABIS AND UZBEKS HAD SEEMED TO BE PROVIDING THE BASIS FOR A 
RAPPROCHEMENT BETWEEN KULYABIS AND GARMIS, NOTABLY IN THE FORMER 
KURGAN TYUBE REGION AS POST HAS REPORTED (SEE DUSHANBE 1563). 
HOWEVER, RECENT VERY HEAVY FIGHTING IN TAVILDARA DISTRICT HAS LED 
TO NEW TENSIONS BETWEEN GARMIS AND KULYABIS (SEPTEL). 
 
10.  PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE HIGH STAKES INVOLVED IN THIS 
RACE, MAKE IT LIKELY THAT BOTH SIDES WILL BE PREPARED TO USE 
WHATEVER MEANS ARE NECESSARY TO SECURE VICTORY.  PHYSICAL 
INTIMIDATION (OR WORSE) TARGETING CANDIDATES, CAMPAIGN WORKERS 
AND VOTERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  RAHMONNOV'S ABILITY TO CONTROL 
THE MEDIA FOR HIS PURPOSES IS LIKELY TO BE EXPLOITED.  ALREADY 
HEROIC DESCRIPTIONS OF RAHMONOV AND SCANDAL MONGERING ATTACKS ON 
ABDULAJANOV HAVE APPEARED IN THE GOTI CONTROLLED MEDIA.  THE 
PUBLISHER OF THE PRO-ABDULAJANOV WEEKLY "TOJIKISTON" 
HAS TOLD HIS EDITOR THAT FOR TWO MONTHS THE PAPER WILL NOT 
PUBLISH.  HE EXPLAINED THAT IF THE PAPER TAKES A PRO-ABDULAJANOV 
POSTURE THE STAFF WILL BE AT RISK.  HOWEVER, THE PAPER WILL NOT 
SUBMIT TO PRESSURE TO BECOME A RAHMONOV MOUTHPIECE. 
 
11.  FINALLY, THE ROLE OF FOREIGN INTERESTS IS AS YET AN UNKNOWN. 
A LENGTHY PAEAN TO RAHMONOV BY RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR SINKEVICH ON 
NATIONAL TELEVISION AUGUST 7 PRESUMABLY DOES NOT SIGNAL A PRO- 
RAHMONOV TILT BY THE RUSSIANS -- WHOM WE EXPECT TO BE EITHER 
QUIETLY PRO-ABDULAJANOV OR NEUTRAL.  BOTH UZBEKISTAN AND RUSSIA 
HAVE THE ABILITY TO TURN THE ECONOMIC SCREWS ON TAJIKSITAN -- OR 
MAKE THINGS EASIER, TO INFLUENCE VOTES.  WE NOTE MOSCOW RADIO 
COMMENTARY AUGUST 7 DESCRIBED ABDULLAJANOV AS LIKELY TO GET MOST 
OF THE RUSSIAN MINORITY VOTE AS HE HAD CHAMPIONED BOTH USE OF 
RUSSIAN AS AN OFFICIAL LANGUAGE AND DUAL CITIZENSHIP FOR RUSSIANS 
LIVING IN TAJIKISTAN. 
 
12.  THE ONLY ASSESSMENT THAT CAN BE MADE WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS 
POINT IS THAT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A HARD FOUGHT CONTEST 
FOR PRESIDENT.  INTERNATIONAL MONITORING WILL BE CRITICAL IF 
THERE IS TO BE ANY REALISTIC HOPE THAT THE VOTERS WILL HAVE A 
CHANCE OF MAKING A FREE AND FAIR CHOICE. 
 
MCWILLIAMS