US embassy cable - 94ZAGREB2605

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002605 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FOR EUR/EE AND INR/IL/RD 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL: OADR 
TAGS: War Crimes 
SUBJECT:  POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA 
 
REF: 93 ZAGREB 4645 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
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2.  SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION 
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WE ARE SUBMITTING HEREWITH A FORESHORTENED POST 
REPORTING PLAN BASED ON POST'S MPP (REFTEL).  WE REGRET 
THE LATENESS OF OUR SUBMISSION BUT OUR WORKLOAD AND 
LIMITED NUMBER OF REPORTING PERSONNEL HAVE LARGELY MADE 
SUCH AN EFFORT MOOT; WHAT FOLLOWS WILL GUIDE OUR WORK 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING YEAR.  END SUMMARY 
AND INTRODUCTION. 
 
----------------------------- 
3. MISSION'S OVERRIDING GOALS 
----------------------------- 
 
MISSION'S OVERRIDING GOALS, AS SET FORTH IN REFTEL: 
 
-- MEETING EMERGENCY AND LONGER-TERM HUMANITARIAN 
RELIEF AND REFUGEE PROTECTION NEEDS IN CROATIA AND 
BOSNIA; 
- 
-- A HALT TO MILITARY SKIRMISHES, AND THE AVOIDANCE OF 
FULL-SCALE WAR, IN AND OVER THE KRAJINA, AND THE 
PEACEFUL REINTEGRATION OF THE UNPAS INTO CROATIA; 
 
-- AN END TO HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY BOSNIAN CROAT 
FORCES AND THE EARLY PROSECUTION OF PERSONS RESPONSIBLE 
FOR COMMITTING WAR CRIMES; 
 
-- A MORE DEMOCRATIC CROATIA, MARKED BY A VIGOROUSLY 
PLURALISTIC SYSTEM, FREE MEDIA, THE RULE OF LAW, AND 
RESPECT FOR THE RIGHTS AND DIGNITY OF MINORITIES; 
 
-- PROVIDING THE HIGHEST STANDARD OF CONSULAR SERVICE, 
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PARTICULARLY IN AREAS RELATED TO THE HUMANITARIAN 
TRAGEDY IN EX-YUGOSLAVIA, INCLUDING VISAS, PAROLE, 
REFUGEE PROCESSING, AND MEDICAL AND OTHER HUMANITARIAN 
EVACUATION. 
 
-- AN ECONOMICALLY TRANSFORMED CROATIA, WHICH REFLECTS 
PRIVATE OWNERSHIP, FREE MARKETS, A STABLE CURRENCY, AND 
MINIMAL BARRIERS TO TRADE AND INVESTMENT; 
 
-- STEADILY INCREASING SALES OF NON-MILITARY U.S. GOODS 
AND SERVICES IN CROATIA. 
 
-- IN ADDITION (AND NOT IN REFTEL), THE MISSION'S 
RESPONSIBILITY TO REPRESENT THE U.S. IN THE CONDUCT AND 
SUPPORT OF THE REINTEGRATION TALKS BETWEEN CROATIA AND 
ITS SECESSIONIST SERBIAN MINORITY HAS BECOME OUR MAJOR 
PRIORITY 
 
--------------------------------- 
4. PROJECTED ANALYTICAL REPORTING 
--------------------------------- 
 
"RSK" LEADERSHIP FACTIONS - THE EFFECTS ON THE 
REINTEGRATION PROCESS (ESSENTIAL; POL; 8/94) 
 
CROATIA'S PATH TO MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY -- SIGNIFICANCE 
OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SABOR (DESIRABLE; POL; 
10/94) 
PROGRESS IN PRIVATIZATION, A REPORT CARD FOR CROATIA 
(ESSENTIAL; ECON; 9/94). 
 
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5.  BIOGRAPHIC/LEADERSHIP REPORTING 
----------------------------------- 
 
BEFORE THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR, WE HOPE TO PRODUCE 
A FRESH LOOK AT PRESIDENT TUDJMAN, PROBABLY IN 
CONNECTION WITH HIS POLITICAL PROSPECTS.  THE REPORT ON 
"RSK" LEADERSHIP (PARA 4 ABOVE) WILL INCLUDE SOME 
BIOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS. 
 
------------------------------------ 
6.  KEY AREAS OF CONTINUING INTEREST 
------------------------------------ 
 
-- ALL ASPECTS OF REINTEGRATING THE UNPAS, INCLUDING 
THE "RSK"-GOC NEGOTIATIONS, GOC ATTITUDES, DOMESTIC 
POLITICAL PRESSURES, EFFECTIVENESS OF UNPROFOR, AND 
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY; 
 
-- THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EFFECTS ON CROATIA OF THE 
WAR IN BOSNIA; 
 
-- PROGRESS IN FLESHING OUT THE BOSNIA-CROATIA 
CONFEDERATION; 
 
 
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PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02605  02 OF 02  081702Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ACDA-17  AGRE-00  AID-01   AMAD-01  A-01     CA-02 
      CIAE-00  COME-00  DEAE-00  OASY-00  DODE-00  DS-00    EB-01 
      OIGO-01  FBO-01   IMMC-01  INM-02   TEDE-00  INR-00   L-01 
      ADS-00   MED-07   MMP-00   MOFM-04  MOF-03   NSAE-00  OCS-06 
      OES-09   OMB-01   PA-01    PC-01    PER-01   PM-00    PPT-01 
      PRS-01   P-01     SP-00    SS-00    TRSE-00  USIE-00  VO-06 
      ASDS-01  FMP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRME-01  DRL-09     /083W 
                  ------------------5A6EBF  082255Z /38 
R 081654Z JUL 94 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2423 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002605 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
FOR EUR/EE AND INR/IL/RD 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL: OADR 
TAGS:  KPRP HR 
SUBJECT:  POST REPORTING PLAN - CROATIA 
 
 
-- HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS, INCLUDING ESPECIALLY 
AGAINST MINORITIES, THE PROBLEM OF ILLEGAL EVICTIONS, 
AND ABUSE OF AUTHORITY; 
 
-- REFUGEE ISSUES, INCLUDING TREATMENT AND POTENTIAL 
NEW FLOWS; 
 
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-- CROATIAN GOVERNMENT RELATIONS WITH KEY MULTINATIONAL 
ORGANIZATIONS AND NGOS (UNPROFOR, ICRC, AND OTHERS); 
 
-- DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOCRATIC FREEDOMS (PRESS, 
PLURALISM, SPEECH); 
 
-- CROATIAN MILITARYSECURITY POLICY AND CAPABILITIES; 
-- ARMS CONTROL AND THE ARMS EMBARGO; 
 
-- DOMESTIC POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS; PARTY SUPPORT, 
ESPECIALLY HDZ; EXPECTATIONS OF ELECTIONS; 
 
-- ORGANIZED LABOR, ITS DEVELOPMENT AND POLITICAL 
IMPORTANCE; 
 
-- ECONOMIC STA 
BILIZATION AND RESTRUCTURING; 
 
-- PROGRESS TOWARD CREATING A MARKET ECONOMY, 
PRIVATIZATION; 
 
-- KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS, INCLUDING BANKING AND TOURISM; 
 
-- FOREIGN INVESTMENT; 
 
-- ECONOMIC SANCTIONS; 
 
-- HUMANITARIAN RELIEF PROGRAMS; 
 
-- DEVELOPMENT OF INDEPENDENT CROATIAN FOREIGN POLICY; 
 
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-- CROATIA'S RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS, ESPECIALLY 
ITALY; 
 
-- WAR CRIMES - INDIVIDUAL CASES AND GOVERNMENT POLICY; 
 
-- LEADERSHIP CHANGES; BIOGRAPHIC REPORTING ON KEY 
PEOPLE IN ALL FIELDS; 
 
-- TERRORISM (GOVERNMENT POLICY AND PRESENCE IN 
CROATIA); 
 
-- CROATIAN PROGRESS IN/WITH EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS (EU, 
COE, NATO); 
 
-- CROATIAN RELATIONS WITH BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINIAN CROATS 
AND THE HVO. 
-------------------------- 
7.  OTHER REQUIRED REPORTS 
-------------------------- 
 
HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT (10/94) 
 
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8.  RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS 
------------------------ 
 
WITH THE ARRIVAL IN MAY OF A NEW POL/ECON SECTION CHIEF 
AND THE FILLING IN AUGUST OF A NEW POLITICAL REPORTING 
OFFICER JOB, OUR RESOURCE PICTURE HAS IMPROVED 
SOMEWHAT.  NEVERTHELESS, THE CONTINUED THREAT OF WAR, 
AND THE MISSION'S HIGH-PRIORITY ROLE IN DEVELOPING AND 
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EXECUTING POLICY FOR THE "RSK"-GOC NEGOTIATIONS OVER 
REINTEGRATION OF THE UNPA ZONES, PLACE CONSIDERABLE NEW 
DEMANDS ON THE RESOURCES WE HAVE.  THE POSSIBILITY OF A 
SHORT-TERM NEW POSITION FOCUSED SPECIFICALLY ON HUMAN 
RIGHTS, WHICH IS STILL PENDING, IS URGENTLY NEEDED TO 
ADD REPORTING FLEXIBILITY.  OVERALL, THE VOLUME AND 
QUALITY OF OUR REPORTING OF "NORMAL" EVENTS SUCH AS 
DOMESTIC POLITICS AND FOREIGN POLICY WILL CONTINUE TO 
BE AFFECTED IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS BY EXOGENOUS 
DEVELOPMENTS SUCH AS PROGRESS IN THE WAR IN BOSNIA OR 
FURTHER "RSK"-GOC HOSTILITIES, AND BY THE NUMBER OF 
VISITORS. 
 
GALBRAITH 
 
 
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