US embassy cable - 03ABUJA542

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000542 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2013 
TAGS: AEMR, ASEC, CASC, KFLO, MARR, PREL, PINR, AMGT, IZ, NI 
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: NIGERIA QUIET IN WAKE OF IRAQ ATTACK 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter.  Reasons 1.5 (B&D). 
 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY:  News of the initial attack by the 
Coalition of the Willing (COW) on Iraq spread rapidly. 
Most Nigerians are aware hostilities have begun, but the 
initial public reaction was muted.  The mood now is tense 
and expectant.  Public response to the hostilities will 
likely be delayed until tomorrow, March 21, after Friday 
prayers and after potential demonstrators had an extra day 
to organize.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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THE MOOD 
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2.  (SBU) Throughout the nation, Embassy contacts report no 
demonstrations or violence.  While Nigeria remains calm on 
the surface, privately, many (especially religious leaders) 
express resentment and opposition to the war.  Christian 
and Muslim clerics alike have called on their followers to 
pray.  While the Christian protesters have no convenient 
timetable, the Muslims will listen attentively to Juma'at 
Prayers March 21 to hear what the Imams have to say.  Large 
crowds associated with the Friday gatherings provide a 
convenient recruitment base for demonstrations, while the 
Mosques themselves offer excellent venues for launching 
points. 
 
 
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REPORTS OF DEMONSTRATIONS UNCONFIRMED 
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3.  (SBU) Reports of an anti-American rally in Kano March 
19 and one in Abuja March 20 appear to be baseless.  In 
Kano, dozens of Hizba (religious police) members 
demonstrated at the Kano State Government offices, 
insisting that their role in implementing Shari'a in Kano 
should be officially endorsed.  Kano State officials 
assured the Embassy they were taking the threat of violence 
seriously and working to minimize the chance of any 
protests taking a violent turn. 
 
 
4.  (SBU) In Abuja, Ambassador and PolCouns transited an 
area where a 3,000 person demonstration was reportedly 
taking place.  They saw nothing that would indicate a 
protest.  A demonstration thought to be about one-third 
that size did take place in the Central Area, but it 
targeted the GON's failure to attack corruption.  The 
demonstrators evidenced no interest in Iraq, according to 
Mission surveillance detection assets. 
 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  It is still early in the COW campaign, 
and potential protesters have not yet had time to coalesce. 
Friday, March 21, will give a first indication of what we 
can expect in Nigeria in response to the attack on Iraq. 
JETER