US embassy cable - 03GUATEMALA723

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000723 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IZ, GT 
SUBJECT: GUATEMALAN VIEWS ON IRAQ SITUATION 
 
REF: GUATEMALA 708 
 
1. (U) Summary. President Portillo told reporters on March 18 
that Guatemala "stands beside the United States," but said 
Guatemala does not take a position for or against war with 
Iraq.  He added that he sent a letter of support to President 
Bush (reftel).  According to the MFA, the GOG delegation to 
the Roatan Centam Presidential Summit reportedly had 
instructions to sign a joint statement on Iraq, but it failed 
to achieve consensus.  Some opposition party leaders have 
expressed strong support for the U.S. while others have 
expressed concern over economic fallout due to rising energy 
prices.  Guatemalan public opinion is divided on Iraq.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (U) Speaking in his home town of Zacapa, President Alfonso 
Portillo told reporters that Guatemala has not taken a 
position on hostilities with Iraq.  However, he stressed that 
in this delicate time Guatemala "will stand with its ally, 
the United States."  Portillo dodged questions about possible 
economic repercussions for Guatemala of any military action 
in Iraq.  He said that although the international situation 
is "grave," Guatemala understands the responsibility of the 
U.S. to respond to it.  Portillo described his recent letter 
to President Bush (reftel) as a further example of his 
support and told the crowd the letter was intended to 
"encourage U.S. authorities because they are living through 
difficult moments."  Political cartoons lampooned Portillo's 
indecision on the potential hostilities, depicting him as a 
chicken buffeted by the winds of war but insisting that "we 
are not for or against, in fact just the opposite..." 
 
3. (SBU) Deputy Foreign Minister Abiu told us on March 19 
that Guatemala had instructed its representatives at the 
Centam presidential summit in Roatan, Honduras, to sign a 
Central American Summit statement on Iraq.  He said that 
there had been no consensus on the statement, however, and 
said ultimately the statement was withdrawn. He said that 
President Portillo's statement was intended to make clear 
that, without taking a position for or against hostilities, 
the GOG will stand by the United States. 
 
4. (U)  Opposition party leaders have publicly and privately 
expressed a wide range of reactions to events in the Persian 
Gulf.  Some have strongly endorsed U.S. military action, 
while others have limited themselves to expressing concern 
over the potential of economic consequences to Guatemala of 
any war. 
 
5. (U) Public opinion appears divided.  There have been a 
number of small, peaceful demonstrations outside the Embassy 
in recent weeks against the possibility of war in Iraq.  The 
demonstrators tend to be student or religious groups and have 
not attracted large numbers of protesters.  Despite fairly 
regular press coverage implying that Guatemala will suffer 
from higher energy prices and reduced tourism, most average 
Guatemalans are more concerned with daily problems than with 
events in the Middle East.  The media has also devoted 
detailed coverage to the 860 active duty and 650 reservists 
of Guatemalan origin who are currently serving with the U.S. 
military, reporting in some cases anxiety about the 
possibility of war and in others, patriotic pride in serving 
their adopted country. 
 
6 (SBU) Comment: We see Portillo's statement as trying to 
have it both ways. 
HAMILTON