US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB631

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) AND EUR/PA/PD (HORNBUCKLE) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPAO, KMDR, HR, PGOV, KPAO, KMDR, HR, IZ, IZPREL 
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: CROATIA: POLITICIANS BACK GOC OPPOSITION 
TO MILITARY ACTION WITHOUT NEW UNSCR 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00631  01 OF 02  191658Z 
REF: ZAGREB 615 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF A.F.GODFREY FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) ALMOST ALL OF CROATIA'S POLITICIANS HAVE PUBLICLY 
BACKED THE GOC DECISION NOT TO SUPPORT MILITARY ACTION IN 
IRAQ ABSENT A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION (REFTEL).  POLITICAL UNITY 
IN CROATIA IS A GENUINE RARITY.  SOME LEADING GOVERNMENT 
FIGURES WANT TO TRY TO CATCH WHAT THEY THINK IS A WAVE OF 
LOCAL SUPPORT FOR THE GOC'S DECISION TO SAY "NO" TO THE USG 
AND ARE CROWING ABOUT THEIR "BRAVE" DECISION.  OTHER 
POLITICAL OBSERVERS ARE DUMBFOUNDED BY THE GOC DECISION AND 
BY ITS MANY PUBLIC STATEMENTS.  THEY ARE WONDERING WHY 
CROATIA'S POLITICIANS ARE MISSING ANOTHER EXCELLENT 
OPPORTUNITY TO SHUT UP.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MESIC: US ACTION WOULD HAVE QUESTIONABLE LEGITIMACY 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2.  (U) PRESIDENT MESIC, IN AN INTERVIEW PUBLISHED IN 
"SLOBODNA DALMACIJA" ON MARCH 19, TOOK A HARD 
INTERNATIONALIST LINE.  HE SAID THAT THE U.S. "DEPARTURE FROM 
THE UN CHARTER FRAMEWORK CALLS THE LEGITIMACY OF THE ACTION 
INTO QUESTION."  HE SAID THAT U.S. ACTION WOULD CREATE A 
PRECEDENT WHEREBY A COUNTRY THAT IS "NOT AMERICA, SOMEONE WHO 
IS STRONGER THAN THEIR NEIGHBOR, CAN IMPOSE THEIR SOLUTIONS" 
AND CITED CROATIA'S EXPERIENCE WITH MILOSEVIC.  MESIC 
QUESTIONED WHETHER CROATIA NEEDS "THIS KIND OF NATO." 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00631  01 OF 02  191658Z 
 
DPM GRANIC: "NO" TO FUTURE USG REQUESTS FOR SUPPORT 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3.  (U) DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER GORAN GRANIC SAID THAT THE GOC 
IS "CONCERNED ABOUT THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS AND, OF COURSE 
DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY ACTION OUTSIDE OF THE UN."  GRANIC SAID 
THAT THE GOC WOULD REJECT FUTURE U.S. REQUESTS FOR SUPPORT OF 
MILITARY ACTION "ACCORDING TO THE DECISION TAKEN BY THE 
COUNTRY'S LEADERS, WHICH IMPLICITLY STATES THAT IT MAY NOT BE 
AMENDED.  I REPEAT THAT CROATIA WILL OPPOSE ANY ACTION WHICH 
IS TAKEN OUTSIDE THE UN." 
 
SMALLER PARTIES GET ON THE BANDWAGON 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (U) LEADERS OF CROATIA'S SMALLER POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE 
JUMPED ON BOARD AS WELL; THEIR COMMENTS WERE PUBLISHED IN THE 
MASS-MARKET DAILY "VJESNIK."  FORMER FM MATE GRANIC 
(PRESIDENT OF THE OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC CENTER - DC) DECLARED 
THAT HIS PARTY DOES NOT SUPPORT MILITARY INTERVENTION WITHOUT 
A NEW UNSCR BECAUSE IT WOULD DIVIDE THE COUNCIL AND 
"COMPLETELY DESTABILIZE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND THE UN 
WITH UNFORESEEABLE CONSEQUENCES."  DAMIR KAJIN OF THE 
REGIONAL PARTY ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (IDS) SAID THAT THE 
U.S. DECISION TO GO AHEAD WITHOUT A NEW UNSCR "DELEGITIMIZES 
THE ACTION AGAINST IRAQ, WHICH, LET'S BE TRUTHFUL, AT THIS 
MOMENT IS NOT THREATENING ANYONE."  HE DERIDED THE STRONG 
PRO-U.S. POSITION OF THE OPPOSITION HDZ BY SAYING THAT HDZ 
PRESIDENT SANADER "LOOKS LIKE HE IS RUNNING HIS ELECTION 
CAMPAIGN IN MASSACHUSETTS, NOT IN CROATIA."  HE SAID THAT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  00631  01 OF 02  191658Z 
CROATIA'S POLITICIANS ARE SHOWING AN "ENVIABLE LEVEL OF 
UNITY." 
 
5.  (C) LUKA TRCONIC, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE HSS (THE 
COALITION'S SECOND-LARGEST PARTY) SAID "WE SUPPORT THE 
GOVERNMENT POSITION" BUT EXPLAINED THAT HIS PARTY "HAS 
UNDERSTANDING FOR THE FRUSTRATION OF THE AMERICANS AND THEIR 
DESIRE TO PUNISH SADDAM HUSSEIN."  EVEN THE FRINGE PARTIES 
ARE ECHOING THE RULING COALITION.  ANTO DJAPIC, PRESIDENT OF 
THE CROATIAN PARTY OF RIGHT (HSP) SAID THAT "THE HSP DOES NOT 
ENDORSE THE USA AND ALLIES' ACTION IN IRAQ WHICH IS NOT 
BACKED BY A RESOLUTION OF THE UNSC.  THE MOTIVES FOR THE USA 
AND ALLIES TO ATTACK IRAQ ARE NOT IDEALS, BUT RAW INTERESTS 
OF A GREAT POWER.  (COMMENT: PM RACAN SHOULD BE WORRIED, NOT 
COMFORTED BY THE SUPPORT OF THIS PARTY OF RIGHT-WING 
EXTREMISTS.) 
 
COMMENTATOR: WHY COULDN'T WE JUST BE QUIET? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) WHILE MOST POLITICAL COMMENTATORS HERE HAVE -- 
TYPICALLY -- FOCUSED ONLY ON THE EFFECT OF THE GOC DECISION 
AS IF IT HAD NO EFFECT OUTSIDE OF CROATIA, BRUNO LOPANDIC, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1622 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00631  02 OF 02  191658Z 
ACTION SS-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  DS-00    EUR-00   FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   MFLO-03  NEA-00 
      NSAE-00  DHS-00   PA-00    PM-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   USIE-00 
      R-00     EPAE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /006W 
                  ------------------471418  191658Z /38 
O 191700Z MAR 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9772 
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY TIRANA PRIORITY 
USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 
USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 000631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE (NARDI) AND EUR/PA/PD (HORNBUCKLE) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KPAO, KMDR, HR, IZ 
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: CROATIA: POLITICIANS BACK GOC OPPOSITION 
TO MILITARY ACTION WITHOUT NEW UNSCR 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00631  02 OF 02  191658Z 
"VJESNIK'S" LEADING FOREIGN AFFAIRS COLUMNIST, LAMENTS THE 
GOC'S "PERILOUS SYNDROME OF REACTING OFFICIALLY TO UNOFFICIAL 
RUMORS."  "FOR THE MOST PART, EUROPE IS SILENT, EXCEPT FOR 
CROATIA."  CROATIA WILL NOT PLAY ANY ROLE IN THE DECISION TO 
ATTACK IRAQ AND ITS "EUROPEAN CLAMORING" IN THE PRESS AND 
PUBLIC WILL NOT DO ANY GOOD EITHER, HE WROTE IN HIS MARCH 18 
COLUMN.  HE ADDED THAT IF CROATIA'S "NEW" POSITION TO OPPOSE 
MILITARY ACTION OUTSIDE THE UN FRAMEWORK WOULD HAVE RULED OUT 
NATO ATTACKS ON THE FRY.  WHILE HE AGREED WITH RACAN'S 
DECISION TO POSTPONE HIS TRIP TO LONDON, HE LAMBASTED RACAN'S 
"ILLOGICAL" DECISION TO TALK TO THE PRESS ABOUT WHY.  IN 
SPEAKING ABOUT CANCELLING THE VISIT, RACAN SAID THAT 
'OBVIOUSLY WE ARE NOT ON THE SAME SIDE' ... THIS STATEMENT IS 
ONE OF A SERIES OF DIPLOMATIC GAFFES WHICH ARE UNFORTUNATELY 
TYPICAL FOR A CROATIAN FOREIGN POLICY BURDENED WITH 
SHORT-SIGHTEDNESS AND IGNORANCE."  BOTH LOPANDIC AND AN 
INTERVIEWER FROM ANOTHER NEWSPAPER EXPRESSED THE BELIEF AS 
OUTLINED IN REFTEL THAT THE GOC WAS SIDING WITH FRANCE IN 
ORDER TO CURRY FAVOR FOR ITS EU APPLICATION. 
ROSSIN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>