US embassy cable - 03AMMAN1685

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001685 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/PPA, NEA/ARN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, JO 
SUBJECT: TFIZ01. JORDANIAN STREET ON THE EVE OF WAR: 
DESPONDENT, ANGRY, CYNICAL 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD W. GNEHM.  REASONS:  1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  On the eve of likely coalition military 
action against Iraq, the mood in Jordan is resigned to war, 
but nevertheless very angry.  Although the street is 
relatively quiet, EmbOffs' conversations with Jordanians on 
the subject of USG policy, while often beginning politely, 
invariably result in emotional, angry responses that 
aggressively question USG intentions in Iraq and the world in 
general.  Media commentators are thrashing the USG and 
President Bush, with one popular mainstream writer comparing 
the President to Hitler (septel).  Jordanians are stocking up 
on foodstuffs and gasoline, but not in quantities that are 
resulting in shortages. 
 
2. (C) Even if military action in Iraq results in a good 
outcome for Jordanians (and Iraqis), it is clear we have a 
deep hole to dig out of if we intend to restore USG 
credibility on the Jordanian street.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
THE ANGRY YOUTH OF JORDAN 
------------------------- 
 
3. (C) On March 19, PolOff randomly engaged a group of 
university students at a cafe in downtown Amman.  The group 
consisted of 5 middle/lower-middle class undergraduates. 
After brief pleasantries, the students began to express their 
opinions.  As the students' emotions grew, PolOff's responses 
to their questions were often waved off or interrupted.  The 
group basically sounded out three points on which they agree: 
 First, America has affronted the world (and confirmed its 
intention to dominate the world) by ignoring and essentially 
obliterating the authority of the UN Security Council. 
Second, the USG, operating on selfish motives, is about to 
invade a country which poses no realistic threat to it. 
Third, the USG's support for Israel, in the face of 
horrendous Arab/Palestinian suffering, leaves Arabs with no 
reason to trust it, let alone support it in actions which 
will likely lead to civilian casualties in Iraq.  "My brother 
is in the West Bank, the Israelis shot him in the knee last 
year.  I'm very angry, and I don't have a lot of anger left 
to focus against Saddam.  He's never done anything to hurt me 
or my family," said one female student.  Another asked why 
the USG has "done nothing" to Israel after the death of AMCIT 
peace activist Rachel Corrie.  "Palestinians gave her more 
respect than her own government did.  That's horrible," she 
said.  Note:  The group was careful to distinguish between 
Americans and the USG, and even drew a distinction between 
the USG and the President, whom they universally viewed as a 
"warmonger." 
 
--------------------- 
THE TWENTY SOMETHINGS 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) On March 19, PolOff met with a young, western-educated 
public relations/internet technology professional in the same 
cafe.  She seemed optimistic about what the war would do for 
Jordan and its economy, and characterized Saddam "as a 
madman."  But, she said, the result of the war, even if all 
went well and Iraqis benefited, would leave the US with "zero 
credibility" here.  "You have a long road to go to get to 
where people here will believe the President over even a 
random conspiracy theory on the internet."  In the past week, 
even well-educated young adults have dissembled into 
conspiracy theories on various reasons for the war, ranging 
from a USG desire to destroy the Euro currency to an 
irrational need for President Bush to avenge his father's 
"failures".  It is nearly impossible to convince people that 
USG intentions are in the interests of the Iraqi people. 
 
----------------------------- 
RESIGNED TO BOYCOTT - FOR NOW 
----------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Despite the emotional anger against USG policy, most 
people here appear resigned that "America is going to do what 
it wants to do."  Most do not expect the street to "erupt," 
although there are again calls for boycott, with several 
Jordanians telling PolOff they have been receiving, and 
forwarding, "numerous" SMS requests to boycott US goods. 
EconOff received one such message from an unknown source 
calling on "everyone" to begin worldwide boycotts against 
American products as soon as the "U.S. invasion begins." 
Note: while our American Chamber of Commerce contacts and 
others in the business community expect to see local calls 
for boycotts of American or "Zionist" products to continue, 
we see no hard evidence of such campaigns materializing as of 
yet. 
 
-------------------------- 
NO SHORTAGES ON ESSENTIALS 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Thus far, people are calmly preparing for possible 
interruption of their daily lives.  "We've been through this 
before, this is the second gulf war," one Amman resident 
said.  There appears to be an almost macho, defiant attitude 
against stocking up in some circles.  Most people, however, 
are purchasing essentials to get them through a period of 
uncertainty. 
 
7. (C) Business community contacts in Zarqa (Jordan's second 
largest city, about 20 miles northeast of Amman) confirm that 
purchases of foodstuffs have increased in the past few days, 
but note that current stocks and production capacities are 
easily sufficient to accommodate increased consumption 
levels.  They note that this increased consumption closely 
followed Trade Minister Bashir's recent announcement that 
food stocks were plentiful and Jordanians should not start 
hoarding.  Remon Altalteh, owner of one of Zarqa's major 
flour mills, confirmed orders have risen, but noted that 
grain stocks are high and his mill is only doing half the 
business it could handle.  Gasoline stations continue to do 
normal business, with no evidence of queuing or hoarding of 
fuel. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8. (C)  Jordanians are largely resigned to a likely war. 
Scratch beneath the surface, however, and resignation turns 
to serious anger and frustration towards the USG, 
particularly in the younger crowd.  At the moment, the USG 
has practically zero credibility with the young set, and its 
credibility within the business community and some political 
circles hinges on the social/political outcome of the war and 
demonstrated progress (instead of "empty promises") on the 
roadmap.  While positive results for the Iraqi and Jordanian 
people will help restore some belief that the USG does harbor 
good intentions, we expect skepticism and anger toward USG 
policy to remain.  This skepticism may limit public GOJ 
support for USG objectives, as they try to balance support 
for us with sensitivity toward the highly charged emotions of 
its people. 
GNEHM