US embassy cable - 94BANDARSERIBEGAWAN318

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN 00318 
 
 
DEPT. FOR EAP/PIMBS FOR NIDA 
DEPT FOR INR/B 
SINGAPORE FOR ARMA 
CINCPAC FOR FPA - AMB. SALMON 
BUCHAREST FOR POL - TONY KOLANKIEWICZ 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS:  PGOV, BX 
SUBJECT:  BRUNEI CONSIDERS CONSTITUTIONAL REVISIONS 
 
REF:  BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN 186 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  BRUNEI'S TWO-YEAR-PLUS CONSTITUTIONAL 
REVIEW PROCESS APPEARS TO BE NEARING COMPLETION. 
MOST OBSERVERS REALISTICALLY EXPECT CHANGES TO BE 
MODEST, AND THE SULTAN'S FULL POWERS TO REMAIN 
INTACT.  MODERATES ARE PRESSING FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT 
OF A BROADLY REPRESENTATIVE LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY, 
INITIALLY APPOINTED BUT WITH A TIME-TABLE FOR MOVING 
TOWARDS DIRECT ELECTIONS.  THE SULTAN WOULD RETAIN 
ULTIMATE AUTHORITY OVER THE ASSEMBLY'S ACTIONS. 
RELIGIOUS ELEMENTS APPARENTLY HAVE PRESSED FOR THE 
INITIATION OF THE EXTREME ISLAMIC HUDUD PUNISHMENTS, 
BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO SUCCEED IN THIS ATTEMPT. 
 
3.  DEBATE CONTINUES IN THE INNER CIRCLES, BUT 
INFORMED OBSERVERS EXPECT THE SULTAN TO ANNOUNCE HIS 
DECISIONS THIS YEAR.  SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE, THE 
LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY, EVEN AN APPOINTED ONE, COULD 
PROVIDE A FORUM FOR AIRING ALTERNATE VIEWS, AND 
COULD, IN THE WORDS OF ONE SENIOR MINISTER, SERVE AS 
A "BRAKE" ON THE CURRENTLY UNCHALLENGED RELIGIOUS 
RADICALS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
4.  THE SULTAN'S FEBRUARY 23RD ANNOUNCEMENT (REFTEL) 
THAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN REVIEWING THE 
CONSTITUTION HAS PROMPTED SPECULATION ABOUT THE 
NATURE OF THE CHANGES CONTEMPLATED.  WE HAVE BEEN 
TAKING SOUNDINGS WITH GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND 
DIPLOMATIC CORPS COLLEAGUES CONCERNING POSSIBLE 
CONSTITUTIONAL REVISIONS.  HIGHLIGHTS FOLLOW. 
 
HUDUD PUNISHMENTS 
----------------- 
 
5.  ON FEBRUARY 24TH IVAN LEONG (PROTECT), BRUNEI'S 
ASSISTANT SOLICITOR GENERAL (THE SECOND-RANKING 
PROSECUTOR IN THE COUNTRY) TOLD THE EMBASSY'S PUBLIC 
AFFAIRS ASSISTANT QUITE MATTER-OF-FACTLY THAT THE 
PLANNED CONSTITUTIONAL REVISIONS WILL INCLUDE THE 
ALIGNMENT OF BRUNEIAN CIVIL LAW WITH THE ISLAMIC 
SHARIA LAW.  HE SAID THAT AS A CONSEQUENCE IN THE 
FUTURE A LOT OF BRUNEIANS WOULD BE WALKING AROUND 
WITHOUT HANDS, BECAUSE AMPUTATION IS THE PUNISHMENT 
CALLED FOR BY THE KORAN FOR THEFT. 
 
6.  OUR PUBLIC AFFAIRS ASSISTANT PRESSED LEONG AND HE 
INSISTED THAT HE WAS SERIOUS. HE OPINED THAT IT WOULD 
BE A "GOOD THING" BECAUSE THE PUNISHMENTS WOULD HELP 
TO ELIMINATE CRIME.  HE ADDED THAT OTHER OFFENSES 
SUCH AS ADULTERY, GAMBLING, DRINKING, AND BEARING 
FALSE WITNESS (INCLUDED IN THE HUDUD PUNISHMENTS) 
WOULD BE CONSIDERED "CRIMES" AND ATTRACT THE 
APPROPRIATE ISLAMIC PENALATIES. 
 
7.  THE ASSISTANT SOLICITOR GENERAL CLAIMED THAT THE 
COMMITTEE ON SHARIA LAW HAD BEEN WORKING FOR A NUMBER 
OF YEARS ON THE CHANGES, AND THAT ITS WORK HAD NOW 
BEEN FINISHED.  HE CLAIMED THAT THE COMMITTEE'S 
PROPOSALS WERE NOW BEFORE THE SULTAN FOR HIS 
CONSENT.  CONCERNING OTHER POSSIBLE CONSTITUTIONAL 
REVISIONS, LEONG CLAIMED THAT ALL REFERENCES TO 
DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED ASSEMBLIES WOULD BE REMOVED 
FROM THE CONSTITUTION, AND THE NATIONAL IDEOLOGY, MIB 
(MALAY MUSLIM MONARCHY) WOULD BE OFFICIALLY 
DESIGNATED AS THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT IN BRUNEI. 
 
8.  ADDING AN ELEMENT OF CREDIBILITY TO LEONG'S 
ASSERTIONS, THE SULTAN HIMSELF, IN A STATEMENT ISSUED 
FEBRUARY 28, ON THE OCCASION OF THE CELEBRATION OF 
THE FEAST OF THE REVELATION OF THE KORAN, EXTOLLED 
THE VALUE OF THE KORAN AS A GUIDE FOR EVERY ASPECT OF 
DAILY LIFE.  HE SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED THAT THE KORAN 
SETS FIXED PENALTIES FOR SUCH ACTIVITIES AS ADULTERY, 
GAMBLING, USURY, AND DRINKING ALCOHOL.  HE ASSERTED 
THAT HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD, WITH IMMEDIATE EFFECT, 
"STUDY AND IDENTIFY ALL TEACHINGS OF THE KORAN WHICH 
CAN BE INCORPORATED INTO OUR NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION, 
AND THEY SHOULD BE PRACTICED." 
 
9.  ON MARCH 9, THE AMBASSADOR PAID HER INITIAL 
COURTESY CALL ON PEHIN DATO MOHAMED ZAIN, THE 
MINISTER FOR RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS.  THE DEPUTY MINISTER, 
DATO YAHYA, WAS ALSO PRESENT.  THE MINISTER READILY 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT EVENTUALLY HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 
FULL APPLICATION OF SHARIA LAW IN BRUNEI, INCLUDING 
THE HUDUD PUNISHMENTS.  HE AND HIS DEPUTY SAID THAT 
THESE COULD BE A DETERRENT TO CRIME.  HE SAID THAT 
BEFORE SUCH MEASURES COULD BE INTRODUCED, THE PEOPLE 
WOULD HAVE TO BE PROPERLY PREPARED, SO THAT THEY 
WOULD ACCEPT IT, AND THIS WOULD TAKE TIME.  HE SAID 
HE DID NOT THINK THAT THE PLANNED CONSTITUTIONAL 
REVISIONS WOULD INCLUDE SUCH PROVISIONS. 
 
10.  COMMENT:  MINISTER ZAIN, HIS POSITION 
NOTWITHSTANDING, IS NOT A RELIGIOUS EXTREMIST.  HE IS 
BELIEVED TO BE RATHER MODERATE.  IN THIS 
CONVERSATION, MINISTER ZAIN DID NOT APPEAR TO BE AN 
ADVOCATE OF FORCING HUDUD PUNISHMENTS ON A RELUCTANT 
BRUNEI.  THE MINISTER WHO IS BELIEVED TO BE MOST 
ZEALOUS IN SEEKING THE ISLAMIZATION OF BRUNEI IS 
PEHIN DATO AZIZ, THE MINISTER OF EDUCATION, ALTHOUGH 
WE DO NOT KNOW HIS VIEWS ON HUDUD. 
 
11.  COMMENT CONTINUED:  CONCERNING THE SULTAN'S 
FEBRUARY 28TH EMBRACE OF THE KORAN, INCLUDING ITS 
SEVERE PUNISHMENTS, WE ATTRIBUTE THIS TO THE 
OCCASION, AND TO THE FACT THAT IT OCCURRED WELL INTO 
THE FASTING MONTH OF RAMADAN, WHEN RELIGIOUS ZEAL 
REACHES A PEAK.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE SULTAN MET 
NIGHTLY DURING RAMADAN FOR LENGTHY KORAN-READING 
SESSIONS WITH MULLAHS.  THESE MIGHT WELL HAVE 
INFLUENCED HIS PRONOUNCEMENT.  IN ADDITION, THE 
SULTAN ONLY SAID HIS GOVERNMENT "WILL STUDY AND 
IDENTIFY" KORANIC TEACHINGS FOR INCORPORATION INTO 
HIS GOVERNMENT'S ADMINISTRATION.  IN BRUNEI, ISSUES 
CAN BE, AND USUALLY ARE, STUDIED AT GREAT LENGTH, AND 
FOR SUBSTANTIAL PERIODS OF TIME.  WE SUSPECT THAT THE 
INTRODUCTION OF HUDUD PUNISHMENTS WILL REMAIN UNDER 
STUDY FOR YEARS TO COME.  END COMMENT 
 
A MODEST REFORM:  COUNCIL OF ADVISERS OR LEGISLATIVE 
ASSEMBLY 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
12.  OUR CONCLUSION THAT HUDUD IS NOT IMMINENT FOR 
BRUNEI WAS REINFORCED BY TWO WELL-PLACED OFFICIALS. 
MFA PERMSEC DATO LIM JOCK SENG (PROTECT), WITH WHOM 
THE AMBASSADOR MANAGED A FEW RARE PRIVATE MINUTES 
RECENTLY, DISMISSED THE IDEA OUT OF HAND, SAYING "MY 
MINISTER WOULD NEVER ALLOW IT".  (NOTE:  THE MINISTER 
OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS IS PRINCE MOHAMED, THE SULTAN'S 
BROTHER; HE HAS BEEN CHAIRING THE CONSTITUTIONAL 
REVIEW COMMITTEE.  END NOTE)  DATO LIM SAID THAT HE 
EXPECTS THE REFORMS TO INCLUDE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF 
AN ADVISORY COUNCIL OF SOME SORT, WHICH HE HOPES 
WOULD MARK MOVEMENT TOWARDS AN EVENTUAL ELECTED 
LEGISLATURE. 
 
13.  BRUNEI'S MINISTER OF LAW AND ATTORNEY GENERAL, 
PENGIRAN BAHRIN (PROTECT), WAS ALSO REASSURING 
CONCERNLNG HUDUD PUNISHMENTS.  ON MARCH 16 THE 
AMBASSADOR DISCUSSED CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM WITH HIM 
AT SOME LENGTH.  STRESSING THAT HE WAS SPEAKING IN 
STRICT CONFIDENCE, THE MINISTER SAID HE HOPED (AND, 
IMPLICITLY, EXPECTED) THE PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL 
REFORMS TO ACCOMPLISH THE FOLLOWING: 
 
-- GET RID OF THE STATE OF EMERGENCY WHICH HAS BEEN 
IN EFFECT SINCE 1962; 
 
-- DESIGN A SYSTEM TO ACCOMMODATE THE SULTAN AS PRIME 
MINISTER.  THIS WILL NOT BE A WESTMINSTER-STYLE 
PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY, HE STRESSED; 
 
-- ESTABLISH A LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY. INITIALLY THIS 
BODY WILL BE APPOINTED, BUT (IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE 
ASST. SOLICITOR GENERAL'S VIEW) BAHRIN SAID THAT THIS 
WILL ONLY BE TRANSITIONAL TOWARDS AN ELECTED BODY, 
AND THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD SHOULD BE CLEARLY STATED 
IN THE CONSTITUTION.  THE BODY SHOULD HAVE 
REPRESENTATIVES OF ALL SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY, INCLUDING 
MINORITIES AND THE PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR. 
INITIALLY, VILLAGE HEADMEN COULD SERVE, PERHAPS, AS A 
TYPE OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE TO SELECT NOMINEES FOR THE 
BODY.  REPRESENTATIVES MIGHT BE CHOSEN BY DISTRICTS 
(KNOWN HERE AS MUKIM--COLLECTIONS OF VILLAGES). 
AFTER THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD, MOVEMENT WOULD BE MADE 
TOWARDS DIRECT ELECTION OF THIS BODY.  THIS BODY 
WOULD DEBATE AND PASS LAWS, INCLUDING THE BUDGET, FOR 
THE SULTAN'S APPROVAL. 
 
-- RETAIN BRUNEI'S CIVIL AND CRIMINAL LAW AS IT IS, 
FOUNDED ON THE BRITISH COMMON LAW SYSTEM.  SHARIA LAW 
WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RELIGIOUS OFFENSES.  HUDUD 
PUNISHMENTS WOULD NOT BE INTRODUCED. 
 
-- TRANSFORM ALL OF THE EXECUTIVE ORDERS OF THE 
SULTAN, WHICH HAVE SUBSTITUTED FOR LAWS DURING THE 
PERIOD OF EMERGENCY POWERS AND IN THE ABSENCE OF A 
LEGISLATIVE BODY, INTO LAWS. 
 
14.  IN RESPONDING TO THE AMBASSADOR'S QUESTION ABOUT 
THE HUDUD PUNISHMENTS, THE ATTORNEY GENERAL SAID THAT 
THE PROPOSED LEGISLATIVE BODY WOULD SERVE AS A 
"BRAKE" ON, AND AS A COUNTER TO, THE RELIGIOUS 
ELEMENTS WHO KEEP PRESSING FOR INCREASED 
ISLAMIZATION.  THIS BROADLY-BASED BODY WOULD PROVIDE 
ALTERNATE VIEWS.  AT PRESENT, BAHRIN CLAIMED, ONLY 
THE RELIGIOUS ELEMENTS ARE WELL-ORGANIZED AND GET 
THEIR VIEWS HEARD, WITHOUT CHALLENGE, BY THE SULTAN. 
THIS LEGISLATIVE BODY WOULD COUNTER-BALANCE WHAT THE 
ATTORNEY GENERAL TERMED THE "RELIGIOUS RADICALS." 
 
15.  PENGIRAN BAHRIN SEEMED CONFIDENT OF THE ABOVE 
OUTCOME, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT TOTAL CONSENSUS HAD 
NOT YET BEEN REACHED ON THE PROPOSALS.  THE WHOLE 
CABINET HAS PARTICIPATED IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL REVIEW 
COMMITTEE, HE SAID, WHICH WAS CHAIRED BY PRINCE 
MOHAMED.  THERE HAS BEEN STRONG RELIGIOUS 
REPRESENTATION.  DISCUSSION HAS BEEN INTENSE, HE 
SAID, WITH SOME ISSUES REVISITED THREE OR FOUR 
TIMES.  BAHRIN SAID THAT IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THERE 
BE CONSENSUS, SO THAT THE REFORMS WILL BE GENUINELY 
ACCEPTED AND PROPERLY IMPLEMENTED. 
 
16.  THE ATTORNEY GENERAL EMPHASIZED THAT THE 1959 
CONSTITUTION WOULD REMAIN THE BASIS OF BRUNEI'S LEGAL 
SYSTEM; THERE WOULD BE NO DRASTIC CHANGES.  CHANGES 
RATHER WOULD EVOLVE OVER TIME. 
 
17.  TIMING OF THE REFORMS:  I VENTURED THAT SINCE 
THE SULTAN HAD ANNOUNCED ON FEBRUARY 23RD (NATIONAL 
DAY) THAT THE REVIEW PROCESS IS NEARING COMPLETION, 
PERHAPS HE WOULD ANNOUNCE THE REFORMS ON ANOTHER 
SIGNIFICANT DAY, PERHAPS JUNE 12 WHEN THE 
RAMADAN-POSTPONED NATIONAL DAY CELEBRATIONS WILL TAKE 
PLACE, OR PERHAPS THE SULTAN'S JULY 15 BIRTHDAY.  THE 
ATTORNEY GENERAL SAID THAT SEPTEMBER 23RD, 
CONSTITUTION DAY, WOULD BE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY.  HE 
SAID THAT SINCE THE SULTAN HAS PUBLICIZED THE REVIEW 
PROCESS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ACTUAL REFORMS WILL BE 
ANNOUNCED THIS YEAR. 
 
WILL MALAY MUSLIM MONARCHY (MIB) CONCEPT BE 
INCORPORATED INTO THE CONSTITUTION? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
18.  THIS IS ANOTHER QUESTION ON WHICH OPINIONS 
DIFFER.  SOME OBSERVERS, INCLUDING THE USUALLY 
WELL-INFORMED CHARGE OF OMAN (PROTECT), BELIEVE THE 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS WILL FORMALLY INCORPORATE 
BRUNEI'S DE FACTO NATIONAL IDEOLOGY, THE MIB, INTO 
THE CONSTITUTION.  OTHERS, INCLUDING THE ATTORNEY 
GENERAL, SAY THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN, AS THE 
CONSTITUTION ALREADY ESTABLISHES ISLAM AS THE STATE 
RELIGION. 
 
A LONG SHOT:  PRINCE MOHAMED AS PRIME MINISTER? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
19.  DISCUSSION OF PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS 
HAS TRIGGERED SOME RENEWED DISCUSSION OF THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SULTAN WILL NAME HIS RESPECTED 
BROTHER, PRINCE MOHAMED, PRIME MINISTER.  ACCORDING 
TO THE OMANI CHARGE, SEVERAL OF HIS SOURCES BELIEVE 
THIS IS IN THE OFFING.  APPARENTLY THIS WOULD BE 
INTENDED AS A GESTURE TO HEAL WHAT IS ALLEGED TO BE 
THE STILL-REMAINING BREACH BETWEEN THE TWO BROTHERS 
CAUSED BY THE SULTAN TAKING A SECOND WIFE.  WE FIND 
THIS UNLIKELY BUT REPORT IT AS A LONG SHOT BECAUSE OF 
ITS SOURCE. 
 
SULTAN TO NAME A CROWN PRINCE? 
------------------------------ 
 
20.  SEVERAL SOURCES SUGGEST THAT THIS IS THE YEAR 
THE SULTAN WILL NAME PRINCE BILLAH, HIS OLDEST SON 
(BY HIS FIRST WIFE), THE CROWN PRINCE AND 
HEIR-APPARENT.  THIS WOULD END THE OCCASIONAL MILD 
SPECULATION THAT THE SULTAN MIGHT BREAK WITH 
TRADITION AND NAME HIS REPORTEDLY HIGHLY INTELLIGENT 
SON BY HIS SECOND WIFE, PRINCE 'ABDUL 'AZIM, CROWN 
PRINCE INSTEAD OF BILLAH, WHO IS VERY MODESTLY 
ENDOWED IN THE BRAINS DEPARTMENT.  WE BELIEVE 
TRADITION WILL PREVAIL AND BILLAH EVENTUALLY WILL BE 
NAMED, DESPITE THE SULTAN'S GREAT PRIDE IN PRINCE 
'ABDUL 'AZIM, WHICH I PERSONALLY OBSERVED. 
 
21.  LOOKING MUCH FARTHER DOWN THE ROAD OF 
SPECULATION, A SCENARIO WHEREBY PRINCE BILLAH BECAME 
THE SULTAN AND PRINCE MOHAMED BECAME PRIME MINISTER 
WOULD BE CREDIBLE.  BILLAH COULD HANDLE THE 
CEREMONIAL DUTIES OF SULTAN, GUIDED BY HIS FATHER 
BEHIND THE THRONE, WHILE THE COMPETENT AND RESPECTED 
MOHAMED, WHO IS STILL IN HIS FORTIES, RAN THE 
GOVERNMENT. 
 
22.  COMMENT:  AS THE FOREGOING SUGGESTS, THE 
SITUATION WITH REGARD TO PENDING CONSTITUTIONAL 
REFORMS REMAINS FLUID.  THE CANDID OVERVIEW PROVIDED 
BY THE ATTORNEY GENERAL MOST LIKELY REPRESENTS THE 
CONSENSUS OF THE MODERATES IN THE CABINET.  THE 
CONFIDENT ASSERTION OF THE ASSISTANT SOLICITOR 
GENERAL THAT HUDUD PUNISHMENTS ARE IMMINENT PROBABLY 
REFLECTS HIS ACCESS TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE 
MORE RELIGIOUSLY RADICAL ELEMENTS, WHO MOST LIKELY 
HAVE PRESSED FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. 
 
23.  GIVEN THE ONGOING SEARCH FOR CONSENSUS, WHAT 
ULTIMATELY EMERGES PROBABLY WILL NOT BE AS LIBERAL AS 
WHAT THE ATTORNEY GENERAL APPEARS TO EXPECT, NOR IS 
THERE LIKELY TO BE MUCH THAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE 
POSITION OF RELIGIOUS RADICALS.  CHANGES ARE LIKELY 
TO BE MODEST AND INCREMENTAL, AND THE SULTAN'S 
ULTIMATE POWERS WILL REMAIN INTACT. 
 
24.  NONETHELESS, AS THE ATTORNEY GENERAL INDICATED, 
THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME KIND OF CONSULTATIVE OR 
LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY, WITH HOWEVER MODEST POWERS, 
COULD AT LEAST PROVIDE A FORUM FOR AIRING ALTERNATE 
VIEWS.  IT COULD GIVE THE SULTAN NEEDED FEEDBACK FROM 
HIS PEOPLE CONCERNING GOVERNMENT POLICIES, WHICH HE 
DOES NOT NOW RECEIVE, TO OUR KNOWLEDGE, FROM ANYONE 
EXCEPT, WE SUSPECT, HIS BROTHER THE FOREIGN 
MINISTER.  WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT THE DOOR TO 
DEMOCRACY TO OPEN IN BRUNEI ANYTIME SOON, THE 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS FAVORED BY ATTORNEY GENERAL 
BAHRIN JUST MLGHT OPEN A WELL-SCREENED WINDOW AN INCH 
OR TWO.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
TULL