US embassy cable - 03HARARE570

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000570 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: SECOND DAY OF MDC STAYAWAY A MAJOR SUCCESS 
 
REF: A) HARARE 557 B) HARARE 546 
 
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington.  Reasons: 1.5 ( 
B) and (D). 
 
ALMOST UNIVERSAL PARTICIPATION 
------------------------------- 
 
1.  (C)  Approximately 80-90 percent of private urban 
businesses were closed nationwide on March 19, the second day 
of the national stayaway organized by the opposition MDC.  In 
Harare, more than 90 percent of retail shops in the central 
business district were shuttered (significantly more than the 
50 percent the day before), with 60 percent of the normally 
full parking spaces available.  A 15-minute drive-around by 
polchief in the industrial areas revealed only one business 
open, and that one appeared to be operating at minimal 
capacity.  In the northern, low-density suburbs where most 
Embassy families reside, most shops were closed.  Most of the 
high-density suburbs around Harare were quiet today and 
public transportation from those areas into central Harare 
was largely unavailable.  More than 40 percent of U.S. 
Mission FSN's (78/185) were not at work today and many of 
those who did appear left soon after noon, hoping the early 
departure would give them a head-start in securing scarce 
transport home. 
 
2.  (C) The stayaway gained momentum on the second day, when 
many more businesses around the country shut their doors.  In 
Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second-largest city, the central 
business district was very quiet, as 80-90 percent of shops 
were closed.  Pedestrian and vehicular traffic was very light 
in downtown Bulawayo, and very few commuter omnibuses were 
operating.  Approximately half of businesses in the 
industrial area were again open, with most of those operating 
at minimal capacity.  In the southern city of Masvingo, 
virtually every shop was closed, according to Mayor Alois 
Chaimiti.  Some 90 percent of private businesses in the 
eastern city of Mutare were shut, an impressive increase over 
the 30 percent of the day before.  MDC advisor Gandi 
Mudzingwa, one of the key organizers of the stayaway, was 
pleased with the results on day two.  He claimed that more 
than 80 percent of businesses were closed in every major 
urban center in Zimbabwe except Gweru, where he said MDC 
structures were "not well-grounded." 
 
Relatively Little Violence 
-------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) There were reports of violence the evening of March 
18 in the high-density suburbs of Kuwadzana, Dzivaresekwa, 
and Chitungwiza, involving both battles between rival groups 
of youths (in Kuwadzana) and beatings administered by police 
(in Dzivaresekwa and Chitungwiza).  We heard unconfirmed 
reports of isolated incidents of stoning of cars and 
intimidation of those trying to get to work the morning of 
March 19. 
 
Sympathy from security services? 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  A drive by emboffs through downtown Harare and 
several high-density suburbs (Tafara, Epworth, Warren Park, 
and Kuwadzana) revealed virtually no overt police presence. 
We understand from some sources that police concentrated 
their attention today on the high-density areas of Glenview, 
Budiriro, and Chitungwiza.  A military helicopter made a 
number of flights over Harare, with teargas canisters clearly 
visible underneath.  MDC advisor Mudzingwa told us he was 
encouraged by two specific incidents on March 18 which he 
interpreted as sympathy for the MDC efforts by security force 
elements.  In the first instance, Mudzingwa claimed that the 
burning of a bus in Chitungwiza was instigated by police. 
The police officers apparently approached a group of MDC 
youths, said they were fed up with what was happening in 
Zimbabwe, and promised not to arrest them if they burned a 
bus.  Although wary at first, the youths proceeded to torch a 
bus, then ran away as the police officers stood by 
motionlessly.    Then, in Chitungwiza the evening of March 
18, soldiers made no attempt to stop MDC youths from burning 
another bus or to subsequently detain them. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C)  The two-day stayaway was a major success for the 
MDC, which demonstrated its capacity to mobilize widespread 
support and paralyze Zimbabwe's economy.  The party 
leadership decided against prolonging the stayaway out of 
concern for the effort's sustainability beyond the announced 
two days.  We think this was a correct decision, particularly 
if the party was uncertain about the prospects for success, 
as the MDC can now declare victory and deploy a useful 
bargaining chip in its efforts to forge a sustainable 
resolution of Zimbabwe's political crisis.  The opposition 
party must now find a way to build constructively on the 
political momentum of the last two days, including mobilizing 
the urban population to move from passive resistance to more 
activist, peaceful protest against the Mugabe regime. 
 
SULLIVAN