US embassy cable - 03SANAA519

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000519 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, YM, DOMESTIC POLITICS 
SUBJECT: ISLAH PARTY MODERATE WARNS ABOUT DEMONSTRATIONS; 
DISCUSSES ELECTIONS 
 
REF: SANAA 263 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Deputy Chief Catherine J. Westley for Reasons 1 
.5 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Islah party political director Mohamed 
Qahtan expressed concern that an onset of war in Iraq would 
endanger Americans in Sanaa because increased demonstrations 
may spiral out of the government's control.  P/E DepChief met 
with him on March 17 at his request.  Qahtan, a well-known 
moderate, requested the meeting to discuss his concerns 
about demonstrations and whether the April 27 parliamentary 
elections will be postponed.  Party election preparations and 
the case of Sheikh Mohammed Ali al-Moayed were also discussed 
(septel).  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Concern about Demonstrations 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Qahtan expressed concern that the 
government-sponsored demonstrations could spiral out of 
control with the onset of war in Iraq.  He wanted to warn the 
Embassy to be extra careful as he did not have great 
confidence that all demonstrations would be controlled well 
by the security forces.  Qahtan also said he thinks "Saddam 
should go now" and that the "Iraqi people have suffered 
enough." 
 
3,  (C)  P/E DepChief brought up the Islah party leadership's 
comments at the government-sponsored demonstration held on 
March 15.  Islah party leader Sheikh al-Ahmar and Islah party 
Shura Council Chairman and leader of the fundamentalist 
faction Sheikh al-Zindani were both quoted in press reports 
as calling for jihad against Americans should a war begin 
against Iraq.  P/E DepChief said that comments like that put 
Americans and the Embassy in danger and were crossing the 
line.  Qahtan said he had written a column negating those 
comments that was not published.  He offered to apologize on 
behalf of the party, but said he cannot really speak for all 
factions.  (Comment:  Zindani leads the fundamentalist 
faction, Qahtan is one of the moderates.  End Comment).  He 
said that President Saleh had co-opted al-Zindani starting 
with his forced participation on the Code of Conduct 
committee (ref), and tried to place part of the blame for 
al-Zindani's comments on the government for allowing and 
perhaps encouraging them.  He did not address Sheikh 
al-Ahmar's comments. 
 
4.  (C)  Post learned from the United Nations Security Chief 
in Sanaa that the March 15 demonstration had to be dispersed 
by gunfire in the air by security forces after some unruly 
youths tried to climb a police truck with a machine gun 
mounted upon it.  This information was not confirmed by the 
RSO with the Ministry of Interior.  The MOI said the 
dispersal by gunfire was to stop stone throwers from getting 
out of hand.  No one was injured or killed. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Elections Could be Postponed;  Party Preparations 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5.  (C)  Qahtan said that he hears rumors constantly about a 
possible postponement of the April 27 elections if an Iraq 
war starts, but does not have any concrete information.  He 
indicated that he hoped there would not be any delay.  P/E 
DepChief said that we encourage the elections to go forward. 
 
6.  (C)  Qahtan said election preparations are continuing 
between the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) and within Islah. 
Approximately 65 constituencies are already agreed between 
Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP) and Islah in terms of which 
party's candidate runs in which constituency.  These are 
primarily in Aden, Taiz and Sanaa.  As of March 16, 8 
constituencies of the regions already discussed remain 
unresolved.  Discussions are ongoing, and Qahtan 
characterizes them as constructive.  He did not give an exact 
number of seats where YSP women are running for the JMP, but 
said there were several. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C)  Post will continue to monitor demonstrations closely 
and disseminate information on their scope and location to 
the American community to ensure their safety.  It is 
doubtful that the comments made by certain Islah party 
members regarding jihad or containing other inflammatory 
language will end.  The Islah party in particular will try to 
use the Iraq war and U.S.-Yemeni counterterrorism cooperation 
to discredit the governing General People's Congress (GPC) in 
the election campaign.  End Comment 
HULL