US embassy cable - 03ANKARA1709

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2013 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, MOPS, MARR, TU, IZ, Iraq 
SUBJECT: TURKEY/IRAQ: MOVING TOWARD APPROVAL OF U.S. 
OVERFLIGHTS 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador W.R. Pearson; reasons: 1.5 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) In separate meetings March 17-18, ruling AK party 
parliamentary group deputy chairman Salih Kapusuz; former 
President Demirel's right-hand-man Muharrem Ozguven; Director 
General of Turkish Customs (and AK party member) Nevzat 
Saygilioglu; and Faruk Demir, executive director of a 
think-tank with deep contacts in the Presidency and Prime 
Ministry, told us the GOT intends to have parliament pass an 
Iraq operation-related resolution March 19 or 20.  Demir told 
us afternoon March 18 that, based on his conversations with 
the Prime Ministry, the Cabinet will consider three draft 
resolutions evening March 18: 
 
 
(a) same text as the resolution permitting U.S. land 
deployment and Turkish forces' deployment abroad which failed 
a parliamentary vote March 1; 
 
 
(b) a text granting the U.S. air corridors and uses of bases 
(no ground deployment) plus Turkish deployment abroad; 
 
 
(c) a text granting the U.S. air corridors only plus Turkish 
deployment abroad. 
 
 
In emphasizing that there is a new sense of fear and urgency 
in the AK leadership, Demir told us his Prime Ministry 
sources say the choice will be (b) or (c). 
 
 
2. (C) When we called on Kapusuz March 18 he was about to 
chair an AK parliamentary group meeting to discuss the draft 
resolution.  His group's M.P.s remain under strong pressure 
from constituents to oppose cooperation with the U.S., 
Kapusuz asserted.  He therefore angled for the U.S. to give 
him a trump card by bringing the $6 billion economic package 
back to the table ("without re-opening it," he hastily tried 
to add).  March 17 General Director of Customs Saygilioglu 
also pressed us to make a gesture by putting the economic 
package back in play.  Without commenting on the package we 
told both interlocutors that Washington is looking only at 
what action the GOT will take. 
 
 
3. (U) We understand Kapusuz focused the AK M.P.s attention 
on the need to pass a resolution; the content is not 
important, he reportedly said, but a resolution is essential. 
 Following the AK group meeting Kapusuz declared publicly 
that there will be no group decision on the vote; as during 
the failed March 1 vote on a broader land-deployment 
resolution, AK M.P.s will be free to vote as they wish.  Main 
opposition CHP leader Baykal, whose gratuitous opposition to 
cooperation with the U.S. on Iraq has set a new benchmark for 
mendacity, has also announced that he is freeing his M.P.s 
from the previous group decision to oppose any resolution. 
 
 
4. (C) Comment: In AK party circles, talk has often been 
cheap, as we have frequently seen.  The cabinet may be 
flirting with options that would enable Turkey to try to 
persuade the U.S. to reinstate the full economic, political, 
and military package.  If so, they may/may now be moving for 
three reasons: (a) the military operation is virtually 
certain; (b) the TGS has spoken out -- twice now; and (c) the 
markets are headed for real instability. 
PEARSON