US embassy cable - 03ZAGREB617

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00617  01 OF 03  181557Z 
THE HAGUE FOR JOHNSON/KAYE/WHEATON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2013 
TAGS: PREL, KAWC, ECIN, PREF, HR, KAWC, ECIN, PREF, HR, KAWC, ECIN, PREF, HR, SR, SRPREL, EUN, War Crimes 
SUBJECT: PATTEN IN CROATIA:  DOUBTS OVER ICTY PRESSUE; WAY 
AHEAD ON CROATIA'S APPLICATION 
 
REF: (A) ZAGREB 470 (B) ZAGREB 305 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR LAWRENCE ROSSIN, REASONS 1. 
5 (B) AND (D) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) LOCAL EUROPEAN COMMISSION HOM WUNENBURGER TOLD 
AMBASSADOR THAT COMMISSIONER PATTEN, DURING A MARCH 13 VISIT 
TO ZAGREB, EMPHASIZED THE GOC'S NEED TO MAKE REAL PROGRESS ON 
ICTY COOPERATION, REFUGEE RETURNS, JUDICIAL REFORM AND MEDIA 
LEGISLATION.  MEETINGS WITH PRESIDENT MESIC, PM RACAN AND KEY 
PARLIAMENTARIANS WERE BRIEF DUE TO THE DJINDJIC ASSASSINATION 
AND PATTEN'S SUDDEN NEED TO VISIT BELGRADE. 
 
2. (C) IN HIS PRE-BRIEF WITH WUNENBURGER, PATTEN EXPRESSED 
CONCERN THAT IC PRESSURE ON SERBIA OVER ICTY HAD BEEN TOO 
HARSH AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE ASSASSINATION.  THIS MAY ALSO 
AFFECT THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE EU PRESSES CROATIA ON ICTY. 
THE COMMISSION WILL ISSUE ITS SAA IMPLEMENTATION REPORT ON 
CROATIA IN ABOUT A WEEK.  WUNENBURGER RECOMMENDED SPECIFIC 
BENCHMARKS ON RETURNS BE INCLUDED IN THE SAA REPORT TO GUIDE 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00617  01 OF 03  181557Z 
WORK ON THE AVIS ON CROATIA'S APPLICATION OVER THE NEXT YEAR 
BUT HE WAS UNSURE SUCH BENCHMARKS WOULD BE.  THE BENCHMARKS 
HE LISTED WOULD MAKE A POSITIVE DIFFERENCE, BUT IN OUR VIEW 
THE GOC WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO IMPLEMENT THEM. 
 
3. (C) WUNENBURGER PERSONALLY BELIEVED THE GOC'S UNHELPFUL 
STANCE ON IRAQ HAD BEEN DRIVEN, IN PART, BY THE CALCULATION 
THAT FRANCE WOULD BE DECISIVE WITH REGARD TO CROATIA'S EU 
APPLICATION.  WE SUSPECT HE IS RIGHT; TIME WILL TELL IF THE 
GOC HAS JUDGED THAT RIGHT OR NOT AS THE EU EXPANDS TO 25 
MEMBERS, MOST OF WHICH ARE ON BOARD WITH THE IRAQ COALITION. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
PATTEN'S DIRECT MESSAGE 
----------------------- 
 
4. (C) PATTEN'S VISIT WAS LONG-SCHEDULED TO ADDRESS CROATIA'S 
EU APPLICATION AND ASSESS PROGRESS ON THE STABILIZATION AND 
ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT (SAA).  WHILE TRUNCATED DUE TO THE 
DJINDJIC ASSASSINATION AND UNFORESEEN BELGRADE VISIT, PATTEN 
WAS ABLE TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT MESIC, PM RACAN, AND SABOR 
PRESIDENT TOMCIC TOGETHER WITH SABOR FOREIGN RELATIONS AND 
EUROPEAN INTEGRATION COMMITTEE MEMBERS.  ALL MEETINGS WERE 
BRIEF DUE TO THE BELGRADE IMPERATIVE.  NEITHER IRAQ NOR THE 
DJINDJIC ASSASSINATION FIGURED MUCH.  IN EACH MEETING, PATTEN 
STRESSED THE FOUR AREAS WHERE, HE SAID, CROATIA NEEDED TO USE 
THE NEXT YEAR (UP TO ISSUANCE OF THE COMMISSION AVIS) TO MAKE 
PROGRESS ON KEY POLITICAL AREAS: 
 
  --  FULL ICTY COOPERATION, NO FALTERING; 
  --  ACHIEVING SIGNIFICANT ACTUAL RETURNS OF REFUGEES; 
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PAGE 04        ZAGREB  00617  01 OF 03  181557Z 
  --  CONCRETE PROGRESS ON JUDICIAL REFORM; 
  --  MEDIA LEGISLATION MEETING INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS. 
 
5. (C) THE GOC SIDE DID NOT PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES DUE 
TO THE BREVITY OF THE MEETINGS, BUT MADE GENERAL ASSURANCES. 
WITH REGARD TO THE GOC'S ALLEGED FAILURE TO PROVIDE DOCUMENTS 
REQUESTED BY THE ICTY PROSECUTOR, RACAN REPEATED THE GOC 
POSITION THAT THIS IS BECAUSE ICTY'S REQUESTS ARE TOO BROAD 
AND VAGUE TO ANSWER -- WHICH, WUNENBURGER REMARKED, THE EC 
KNOWS IS UNTRUE.  RACAN ASSERTED TO PATTEN THAT HE WOULD SHOW 
HMG EVIDENCE PROVING THAT CROATIA'S COMPLAINT ABOUT THE 
NATURE OF THESE DOCUMENT REQUESTS WAS WELL FOUNDED WHEN HE 
VISITED LONDON MARCH 18-19 (NOW CANCELLED).  ON RETURNS, THE 
GOC GAVE GENERAL ASSURANCES. 
 
6. (C) PATTEN ASSURED THE CROATIANS THAT THEIR APPLICATION 
WOULD NOT BE IMPEDED BY THE RESURGENCE OF INSTABILITY IN 
NEIGHBORING SERBIA; THAT BECAME THE MEDIA HEADLINES.  IN 
FACT, WUNENBURGER COMMENTED, IT IS CLEAR TO HIM THAT THE 
DJINDJIC ASSASSINATION WILL BOOST THE PROSPECTS FOR CROATIA'S 
APPLICATION -- HOWEVER GOOD OR BAD THE GOC'S RECORD OF 
MEETING THE EU'S POLITICAL CONDITIONALITY -- BECAUSE THE EU 
DOES SEE CROATIA AS, AND WANTS TO ENSURE IT REMAINS, A 
COUNTRY OF RELATIVE STABILITY IN THE REGION.  ONLY A MAJOR 
ICTY BLOWUP WOULD DERAIL THAT, IN WUNENBURGER'S ASSESSMENT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7143 
 
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ACTION SWCI-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  COME-00  INL-00 
      USNW-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00  PERC-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   E-00     VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  NSCE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   DHS-00   PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SCT-00   SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00 
      TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01 
      G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------465D13  181601Z /38 
R 181546Z MAR 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9752 
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY BERLIN 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 
AMEMBASSY SKOPJE 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY TIRANA 
USEU BRUSSELS 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USOFFICE PRISTINA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 000617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00617  02 OF 03  181557Z 
THE HAGUE FOR JOHNSON/KAYE/WHEATON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2013 
TAGS: PREL, KAWC, ECIN, PREF, HR, EUN, SR 
SUBJECT: PATTEN IN CROATIA:  DOUBTS OVER ICTY PRESSUE; WAY 
AHEAD ON CROATIA'S APPLICATION 
 
PATTEN: "TOO MUCH" PRESSURE ON WAR CRIMES? 
------------------------------------------ 
 
7. (C) WUNENBURGER SAID THAT PATTEN, IN THEIR PREBRIEF, 
RUMINATED ABOUT THE TRAGEDY IN SERBIA AND HIS CONCERN THAT 
THE ASSASSINATION MAY HAVE COME ABOUT IN PART DUE TO 
EXCESSIVE IC PRESSURE FOR ICTY COMPLIANCE.  HE BELIEVED THIS 
MIGHT INFLUENCE FUTURE COMMISSION (AND POSSIBLY EU) 
APPROACHES NOT ONLY TOWARD SERBIA BUT ALSO TOWARD CROATIA AND 
OTHER RELEVANT COUNTRIES. 
 
8. (C) FOR HIS OWN PART, WUNENBURGER EXPRESSED CONCERN LESS 
ABOUT THE DEGREE OF PRESSURE ON CROATIA THAN ABOUT ICTY'S 
TACTICS HERE, WHETHER ITS INCLUSION OF BROAD HISTORICAL 
ELEMENTS IN INDICTMENTS UNNECESSARY FOR SUCCESSFUL 
PROSECUTIONS, ITS UNSUBSTANTIATED ASSERTIONS ABOUT GOTOVINA'S 
PRESENCE IN CROATIA OR ITS RELATIVELY LOWER PROFILE HANDLING 
OF WHAT HE CALLED ITS MOST SERIOUS COMPLAINT, INADEQUATE 
COOPERATION ON PROVIDING DOCUMENTS.  OTHER THAN THE 
"HISTORICAL" ELEMENTS OF THE INDICTMENTS, WUNENBURGER'S 
CONCERNS CLOSELY MATCHED OUR OWN, ON WHICH WE HAVE RECENTLY 
REPORTED (REFTELS).  HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH PATTEN RECENTLY MET 
WITH CARLA DEL PONTE, WUNENBURGER UNDERSTOOD THAT PATTEN 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  00617  02 OF 03  181557Z 
RAISED NO SUCH CONCERNS WITH HER.  (THAT WAS BEFORE THE 
DJINDJIC ASSASSINATION.) 
 
NEXT EU STEPS ON CROATIA 
------------------------ 
 
9. (C) WUNENBURGER SAID THE COMMISSION SHOULD ISSUE ITS 
ANNUAL ASSESSMENT OF CROATIA'S IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SAA IN 
ABOUT A WEEK.  IT WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF PROGRESS AND 
SHORTFALL ACROSS THE SAA BOARD, WITH EMPHASIS ON THE 
POLITICAL CONDITIONS LISTED ABOVE.  THE SAA PROVIDES THE 
COMMISSION WITH AN ADDED, CONCRETE FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPING 
ITS AVIS ON CROATIA'S EU APPLICATION.  THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE 
CASE WITH PREVIOUS APPLICATIONS.  (NOTE: CROATIA'S 
APPLICATION WAS SUBMITTED IN FEBRUARY; CROATIA HOPES IT WILL 
BE FORWARDED BY THE COUNCIL TO THE COMMISSION FOR AVIS IN 
APRIL BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUNE.  A COUPLE OF 
COUNTRIES, NOTABLY THE UK, HAVE NOT RATIFIED THE SAA YET AND 
MAY SEEK TO IMPEDE COUNCIL ACTION ON THE APPLICATION.) 
 
10. (C) WUNENBURGER TOLD THE AMBASSADOR HE HAS RECOMMENDED 
THE INCLUSION OF SPECIFIC RETURNS-RELATED BENCHMARKS IN THIS 
YEAR'S SAA REPORT: COMPLETION OF ALL PROPERTY RESTITUTION 
THIS YEAR; ACTION ON ALL HOUSING RECONSTRUCTION APPLICATIONS 
THIS YEAR; AND ESTABLISHMENT THIS YEAR OF A CONCRETE, 
TRANSPARENT PROGRAM TO "COMPENSATE" THOSE WHO FORMERLY 
ENJOYED OCCUPANCY AND TENANCY RIGHTS TO SOCIALLY-OWNED 
PROPERTY.  HE SAID HE WAS UNSURE WHETHER THE COMMISSION WOULD 
INCLUDE THESE. 
 
11. (C) LOOKING AHEAD TO THE AVIS IN A YEAR OR SO, 
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WUNENBURGER SAID THAT INCLUSION OF THESE BENCHMARKS AS WELL 
AS THE GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE GOC'S PERFORMANCE ON THE 
POLITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE CENTRAL TO THE COMMISSION'S 
WORK.  DEPENDING ON THE COMMISSION'S ASSESSMENT OF CROATIA'S 
(PERFORMANCE-PROVEN) READINESS TO ENTER INTO NEGOTIATIONS 
WITH THE EU, THE COMMISSION WOULD RECOMMEND TO THE COUNCIL 
THAT THE APPLICATION BE ACCEPTED AND NEGOTIATIONS BEGUN; THAT 
IT AND NEGOTIATIONS BE DEFERRED WITH SPECIFIC AREAS FOR GOC 
EFFORT IDENTIFIED; OR THAT IT BE REJECTED.  THE LATTER WILL 
NOT HAPPEN; HE WAS UNCERTAIN FROM HIS OWN VIEW OF CROATIA'S 
EFFORTS WHETHER IT WOULD GET A FAVORABLE OR A DEFERRED AVIS. 
IN THE END, HE CAUTIONED, THE POLITICAL CONDITIONALITY WILL 
WEIGH HEAVILY, BUT ALL FACTORS INCLUDING ECONOMIC AND LEGAL 
ISSUES WILL BE "BALANCED," AND IN ANY CASE THE COUNCIL WILL 
DECIDE; THE COMMISSION'S AVIS IS JUST THAT, A RECOMMENDATION. 
 (THE COUNCIL ALMOST ALWAYS FOLLOWS COMMISSION 
RECOMMENDATIONS, HE NOTED, BECAUSE IT AND THE MEMBER STATES 
ESSENTIALLY PRECOOK THE FINAL RECOMMENDATION.) 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
12. (C) WE HOPE THAT WUNENBURGER'S PROPOSED RETURNS 
BENCHMARKS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE SAA REPORT.  THEY MAKE 
SENSE; THEY WOULD MATERIALLY AFFECT THE RETURNS SITUATION FOR 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ7144 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  00617  03 OF 03  181557Z 
ACTION SWCI-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AID-00   CIAE-00  COME-00  INL-00 
      DODE-00  DOEE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EB-00    EUR-00 
      E-00     VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   DHS-00 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00 
      SSO-00   SS-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-01   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------465D28  181602Z /38 
R 181546Z MAR 03 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9753 
INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY BERLIN 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 
AMEMBASSY SKOPJE 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY TIRANA 
USEU BRUSSELS 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USOFFICE PRISTINA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 000617 
 
SIPDIS 
 
THE HAGUE FOR JOHNSON/KAYE/WHEATON 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  00617  03 OF 03  181557Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2013 
TAGS: PREL, KAWC, ECIN, PREF, HR, EUN, SR 
SUBJECT: PATTEN IN CROATIA:  DOUBTS OVER ICTY PRESSUE; WAY 
AHEAD ON CROATIA'S APPLICATION 
 
THE BETTER; THEY ARE TOUGH BUT ACHIEVABLE IF THE GOC DISPLAYS 
POLITICAL WILL (AS HE HAS TOLD BRUSSELS); AND THE SAA 
REPORT/AVIS PROCESS PROVIDES CLEAR ACCOUNTABILITY BY A 
COMMISSION THAT WE KNOW IS UNWILLING TO TAKE THE GOC ON 
FAITH.  IF THE GOC WERE TO ACT SERIOUSLY ON THOSE SPECIFIC 
ISSUES, IT WOULD REPRESENT A SEA CHANGE IN ITS LACKLUSTER 
RECORD ON RETURNS AND MERIT EU (AND OUR) RECOGNITION. 
FRANKLY, HOWEVER, WE THINK THE GOC WOULD FAIL THE TEST, 
ESPECIALLY IN THIS ELECTION YEAR GIVEN THE INDIFFERENCE OR 
HOSTILITY OF VOTERS TO DEVOTING GOC EFFORT AND RESOURCES TO 
RETURNS. 
 
13. (C) DOWN THE ROAD, HOWEVER, WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE VIEWS 
OF EU MEMBER STATES AND THEIR RELATIVE VIGOR IN PUSHING THEM 
WITHIN THE COUNCIL WILL DECIDE THE FATE OF CROATIA'S 
APPLICATION.  IN THAT REGARD, WUNENBURGER'S PERCEPTION THAT 
THE GOC CHOSE TO SIDE WITH FRANCE AND GERMANY THIS WEEK ON 
IRAQ BECAUSE IT SEES THEM AS THE MAIN ACTORS ON ITS 
APPLICATION COUILD TURN OUT TO BE SIGNIFICANT, AND A MAJOR 
ERROR.  CONSISTENTLY, THE GOC HAS FAILED TO RECOGNIZE THAT 
THE EU HAS 15 -- SOON, 25 -- MEMBERS, AND THAT COUNTRIES SUCH 
AS THE UK, SPAIN AND POLAND WILL ALSO DETERMINE THE FATE OF 
ITS MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION.  BALKANS STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS 
MAY LEAD THE LATTER GROUP TO SUPPORT CROATIA IN A YEAR'S 
TIME, OR THEY MAY NOT -- MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE LENGTH OF 
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BRITISH AND SPANISH MEMORIES.  GIVEN LONDON'S ALREADY HEALTHY 
SKEPTICISM ABOUT CROATIA AND AZNAR'S INDIFFERENCE TO CROATIA, 
THINGS MAY TURN OUT LESS POSITIVELY FOR ZAGREB'S EU 
APPLICATION IN 2004.  BUT THE AVIS AND DECISION ON THE 
APPLICATION WILL COME ONLY AFTER THE NEXT CROATIAN ELECTION. 
ANALYSTS HERE CONCUR THAT RACAN HAS A ONE-YEAR HORIZON AND 
THAT HE PUTS VOTE-GETTING AHEAD OF THE REAL FATE OF CROATIA'S 
EU ASPIRATIONS. 
ROSSIN 
 
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