US embassy cable - 94KADUNA284

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KADUNA 00284 
 
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE 
 
LONDON FOR MCKINLEY; PARIS FOR PERLOW 
LAGOS PASS TO ABUJA 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: KPRP, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: LAST GASP FROM KADUNA: POLITICS IN NORTHERN 
NIGERIA 
 
1.  THIS IS THE SECOND OF FOUR END-OF-TOUR, END-OF-POST 
CABLES FROM KADUNA, GIVING AN OVERVIEW OF NORTHERN 
NIGERIA.  THE OTHER THREE WILL DEAL RESPECTIVELY WITH 
THE COMMERCIAL AND ECONOMIC CLIMATE, THE CULTURAL 
SCENE, AND SOCIAL STRUCTURES AND CONDITIONS.  THEY ARE 
MEANT FOR ORIENTATION OF OFFICERS ARRIVING IN THE 
SUMMER OF 1994 TO TAKE UP REPORTING POSTS IN ABUJA, AS 
WELL AS TO FULFILL POST REPORTING PLAN REQUIREMENTS. 
 
2.  SUMMARY: POLITICAL TRADITIONS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA, 
AS ESEWHERE, STRETCH BACK TO THE PRE-INDEPENDENCE 
PERIOD.  UNLIKE OTHER SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, HOWEVER, 
THE LARGER-THAN-LIFE FIGURE OF THE FIRST PREMIER OF 
NORTHERN NIGERIA, THE SARDAUNA OF SOKOTO, CONTINUES TO 
HANG OVER POLITICAL FIGURES AND ORGANIZATIONS IN THE 
NORTH.  EQUALLY, NORTHERN POLITICS ARE PULLED IN 
CONFLICTING DIRECTIONS BY THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF 
THE TRADITIONAL RULERS AND THE HABITS OF DEFERENCE TO 
ELDERS AND REFUSAL TO SPEAK ILL OF THOSE IN AUTHORITY. 
THE NORTH IS HOME TO TWO STRONG TRADITIONS -- MOSLEM 
CONSERVATISM AND A POPULIST RADICALISM.  IF ADDITION, 
GENERATIONAL FISSURES APPEARED IN THE ABORTED 
TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY WHICH COULD PROVE AN EVEN 
STRONGER CHALLENGE TO TRADITION AND THE ELDERS IF THE 
PROGRAM EVER GETS ON TRACK AGAIN.  ONCE POLITICS RESUME 
OPENLY, THERE ARE SEVERAL PERSONS AND GROUPS READY TO 
PICK UP WHERE IBB LEFT THEM LAST JUNE 23.  END SUMMARY. 
 
A LITTLE HISTORY 
---------------- 
 
3.  IN THE RUN-UP TO INDEPENDENCE IN THE 1950S, THE 
NORTHERN REGION SPAWNED THREE DISTINCT POLITICAL 
MOVEMENTS WHICH ARE STILL LARGELY MIRRORED IN CURRENT 
POLITICS.  THE ONE THAT WAS ULTIMATELY VICTORIOUS IN 
THE NORTHERN REGIONAL ELECTIONS AND THE FORERUNNER FOR 
THE NATIONAL PARTY OF NIGERIA (NPN) OF THE SECOND 
REPUBLIC AND THE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONVENTION (NRC) 
OF THE SECOND-AND-A-HALF REPUBLIC, WAS THE NPC, 
NORTHERN PEOPLES CONGRESS.  THIS PARTY WAS THE HOME OF 
THE TRADITIONAL, HAUSA AND FULANI CONSERVATIVES AND 
STILL PROVIDES THE MODEL FOR SOUTHERN ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT 
"NORTHERN POLITICAL DOMINATION." 
 
4.  THERE WERE, HOWEVER, TWO OTHER POLITICAL MOVEMENTS 
WITH CHARISMATIC LEADERS IN NORTHERN NIGERIA.  ONE WAS 
THE RADICAL POPULIST NORTHERN ELEMENTS PROGRESSIVE 
UNION (NEPU) WHOSE LEADER WAS AMINU KANO.  THIS GROUP 
WAS CENTERED IN KANO WHICH WAS AND IS STILL TODAY HOME 
TO POLITICAL CURRENTS DIRECTLY AT ODDS WITH THE 
NORTHERN "ESTABLISHMENT."  THIS STRAIN OF POLITICAL 
THOUGHT ACCOUNTED FOR THE STRONG VOTE FOR ABIOLA IN 
KANO ON JUNE 12, AS WELL AS FOR THE NEARLY EVEN SPLIT 
BETWEEN NRC AND SDP IN THE CIVILIAN STATE GOVERNMENTS 
OF KANO, KADUNA, AND KATSINA THAT HAVE JUST BEEN 
ABOLISHED.  NEPU WAS THE FOREFATHER OF THE PEOPLES 
REDEMPTION PARTY (PRP) OF THE SECOND REPUBLIC (ALSO 
HEADED BY AMINU KANO), BUT ITS HEIRS SPLIT IN KANO AND 
KADUNA BETWEEN THE SDP (PEOPLES' SOLIDARITY PARTY (PSP) 
FACTION) AND NRC WHEN THE PARTIES WERE ORGANIZED BY 
BABANGIDA IN 1989.  MALLAM AMINU KANO DIED IN 1983, BUT 
IS STILL WIDELY REVERED BY NORTHERNERS WHO SAW HIM AS 
AN INCORRUPTIBLE POLITICIAN OF SIMPLE TASTES AND 
SPARTAN LIFESTYLE, QUITE AT ODDS WITH THE NIGERIAN NORM. 
 
5.  THE THIRD POLITICAL MOVEMENT WAS THE UNITED MIDDLE 
BELT CONGRESS LED BY JOSEPH TARKA (A TIV FROM CURRENT 
BENUE STATE).  TARKA PRESSED STRONGLY FOR A FOURTH 
REGION COMPRISING THE MIDDLE BELT MINORITIES (NOWADAYS 
FOUND IN TARABA, BENUE, KOGI, PLATEAU, NIGER, KWARA, 
AND SOUTHERN KADUNA STATES) BUT LOST OUT.  WE HAVE BEEN 
TOLD HIS PLAN WAS SHOT DOWN LARGELY AT THE INSTANCE OF 
ANTHONY ENAHORO (NOW THE HEAD OF THE MOVEMENT FOR 
NATIONAL REDEMPTION), AN INDIGENE OF EDO STATE.  OF 
COURSE, NOT LONG AFTER INDEPENDENCE, ENAHORO MANAGED TO 
PUSH THROUGH THE CREATION OF A FOURTH REGION FOR HIS 
OWN ETHNIC GROUP, AN EVENT WHICH HAS NOT BEEN FORGOTTEN 
IN THESE PARTS.  TARKA WAS ELECTED TO THE SECOND 
REPUBLIC SENATE BUT DIED IN 198O.  NEVERTHELESS, THE 
MIDDLE BELT CONSIDERS ITSELF TO HAVE A SEPARATE 
POLITICAL EXISTENCE FROM THE FAR NORTH (WITH PERHAPS 
THE EXCEPTION OF NIGER STATE), AND VOTED FAIRLY 
STRONGLY FOR THE NIGERIA PEOPLES' PARTY (NPP) (OR, IN 
BORNO AND GONGOLA, THE GREAT NIGERIA PEOPLES' PARTY 
(GNPP)) IN 1979 AND SDP IN THE 1991-93 ELECTIONS. 
 
 
THE SARDAUNA 
------------ 
 
6.  AT INDEPENDENCE, THE NORTHERN REGION GOVERNMENT WAS 
CAPTURED BY THE NPC, WHICH ELECTED SIR AHMADU BELLO, 
THE SARDAUNA OF SOKOTO, AS PREMIER.  GIVEN THE FACT 
THAT THE LAND MASS OF THE NORTHERN REGION WAS AT LEAST 
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND THE DEVOLUTION OF POWER 
FROM THE CENTER TO THE REGIONS UNDER THE FIRST 
CONSTITUTION, THE SARDAUNA WAS AN IMMENSELY POWERFUL 
FIGURE.  HE WAS A PRINCE OF THE SOKOTO RULING FAMILY 
BUT, REPORTEDLY, WAS REGARDED BY THE OPEN RULING SULTAN 
WITH SOME SUSPICION, AND SO THE SULTAN WAS HAPPY TO 
HAVE HIM OUT OF SOKOTO AND IN KADUNA. 
 
7.  THERE APPEARS TO BE NO DOUBT THAT THE SARDAUNA WAS 
A FIGURE LARGER THAN LIFE.  HE WAS, TO BEGIN WITH, 
PHYSICALLY IMPOSING.  BUT, FOR THOSE NORTHERN ELDERS 
WHO SERVED IN HIS GOVERNMENT AND ARE STILL ACTIVE (ISA 
KAITA, LIMAN CIROMA, AHMED TALIB, YAHAYA GUSAU, 
AMBASSADOR JOLLY TANKO YUSUF, MAITAMA SULE, AND MANY 
OTHERS), HIS INFLUENCE IS STILL PALPABLE.  HE IS 
REGARDED AS INCORRUPTIBLE, DEEPLY CONCERNED TO MOVE THE 
NORTH FROM ITS CONDITION OF BACKWARDNESS, AND DEEPLY 
RELIGIOUS.  HIS DEATH AT THE HANDS OF THE PERPETRATORS 
OF THE FIRST 1966 COUP IS CONSIDERED A MARTYRDOM AND 
THE HOUSE HE OCCUPIED IS A NORTHERN SHRINE (NOW THE 
HEADQUARTERS OF AREWA HOUSE, A RESEARCH AND 
DOCUMENTATION CENTER FOR NORTHERN NIGERIA).  HIS 
PORTRAIT IS STILL HAWKED AT EVERY MAJOR GATHERING AND 
FUND LAUNCHING IN THE NORTH. 
 
8.  THOSE WHO REMEMBER THE SARDAUNA RECOUNT THE STORIES 
OF HIS VISITS THROUGHOUT THE NORTH, EVEN TO REMOTE 
AREAS ON THE MAMBILLA PLATEAU AND OTHER SETTLEMENTS OFF 
THE BEATEN TRACK.  THEY WILL MENTION THE JOY WITH WHICH 
THE LOCAL INHABITANTS GREETED HIM, AND THOSE WHO SERVED 
IN HIS GOVERNMENT WILL EMPHASIZE THAT MOSLEM, 
CHRISTIAN, AND PAGAN ALIKE GAVE HIM THEIR ALLEGIANCE. 
THE SARDAUNA'S PROGRESSES THROUGHOUT THE NORTH INVOLVED 
DISTRIBUTION OF CLOTH AND SMALL HOUSEHOLD WARES, AS 
WELL AS COMMITMENTS TO CONSTRUCT SCHOOLS AND OTHER 
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE ENTIRE COMMUNITY.  FROM MORE 
IMPARTIAL SOURCES, WE LEARN THAT THE GOODIES WERE 
ACTUALLY DISTRIBUTED TO THOSE VILLAGES AND PERSONS WHO 
CONVERTED TO ISLAM; EVEN VILLAGES WHICH HAD BEEN MOSLEM 
FOR SOME TIME CLAIMED TO HAVE RECENTLY CONVERTED IN 
ORDER TO COLLECT THE "DASH."  ONE CHRISTIAN CONTACT OF 
THE CONSULATE WHO HAILS FROM LOKOJA REMEMBERS SXWNDIN 
WITH HIS SCHOOL CLASS ON THE SIDE OF THE ROAD TO 
WELCOME THU SARDAUNA TO KOGI DISTRICT.  WHEN, AFTER A 
LONG DELAY, THE PREMIER ACTUALLY APPEARED, HE RESPONDED 
TO THE WELCOME BY REMARKING AUDIBLY WITHIN OUR 
CONTACT'S HEARING, "IS THERE SUCH A PLACE AS KOGI 
DISTRICT?"  OUR CONTACT HAS NEVER FORGOTTEN THE 
IMPRESSION THIS MADE ON HIM. 
 
9.  THIS HISTORY HAS SOME RELEVANCE TO POLITICS TODAY 
SINCE MUCH OF THE SARDAUNA'S STYLE CARRIES OVER.  THE 
CIVILIAN GOVERNORS OF THE ABORTEDHZHIRD REPUBLIC FROM 
THE NORTHERN STATES CONSIDERED THEIR STATES "MOSLEM," 
AS THOUGH IT WAS NORMAL TO GIVE STATE MONEY TO MOSLEM 
FUND RAISINGS.  THE BABANGIDA HABIT OF FINANCING 
GOVERNMENT BY "PERSONAL" DONATION MAY ALSO REFLECT THE 
SARDAUNA'S STYLE.  WE OBSERVE IN THE NORTH LITTLE 
UNDERSTANDING OF THE NECESSITY FOR A GOVERNMENT TO BE 
NEUTRAL IN MATTERS OF RELIGION, EXCEPT FOR CHRISTIANS 
LIVING IN PREDOMINATELY MOSLEM AREAS.  IN SOME STATES, 
SUCH AS KADUNA OR PLATEAU, THE DEPUTY GOVERNORS WERE 
ADHERENTS OF THE OPPOSITE RELIGION AND SOME EFFORT WAS 
MADE TO MAKE EQUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO BOTH RELIGIOUS OR 
TO SEND EQUAL NUMBERS OF PERSONS ON BOTH THE HAJJ AND 
THE "CHRISTIAN PILGRIMAGE" TO ROME AND JERUSALEM. 
 
 
THE THIRD REPUBLIC 
------------------ 
 
10.  BY FORCING THE NASCENT POLITICAL PARTIES OF THE 
THIRD REPUBLIC INTO TWO COALITIMNS CALLA NRC AND SDP, 
BABANGIDA'S TRANSITION DID NOT CHANGE POLITICS IN THE 
NORTH IN ANY FUNDAMENTAL WAY.  THE TRADITIONAL, FAR 
NORTH GENERALLY FELL INTO THE NRC, WHILE THE 
"PROGRESSIVEE NORTH (BTRNO, YOBE, KANO CITY, AND THE 
MIDDLE BELT) WERE STRONG FOR THE SDP.  EACH PARTY MADE 
ITS TRADITIONAL ALLIANCES WITH THE GROUPS IN THE SOUTH 
-- THE "ROGRESSIVES" WITH THE YORUBA AND THE 
"TRADITIONALISTS" WITH THE EAST. 
 
11.  WHAT WAS PROBABLY MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE FUTURE 
WAS THE EFFORT ON THE PART OF THE BABANGIDA THEORISTS 
TO ELIMINATE THE "OLDBREED" FROM THE PLAYING FIELD AND 
ENCOURAGE THE EMERGENCE OF "NEWBREED" POLITICIANS. 
SINCE THE BAMNING EVEN FROM POLITICAL ACTIVITY AND 
SUPPORT OF CANDIDATES ON THE PART OF THE OLDBREED 
REMAINED IN FORCE THROUGH THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS 
OF DECEMBER 1991, THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, GOVERNORS, AND 
STATE HOUSES OF ASSEMBLY ELECTED WERE COMPOSED ALMOST 
ENTIRELY OF YOUNGER, POLITICALLY INEXPERIENCED PEOPLE. 
A NUMBER OF NORTHERN OBSERVERS HAVE REMARKED THAT, IN 
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY AT LEAST, THIS DID NOT SERVE 
THE PUBLIC WELL.  THE NORTHERNERS AT THE CONSTITUTIONAL 
CONFERENCE HAD, FOR EXAMPLE, ARGUED AGAINST THE 
EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTIVE OFFICE, SINCE 
THIS WOULD ELIMINATE A NUMBER OF RESPECTED LOCAL 
LEADERS WHO HAD LITTLE SCHOOLING.  NORTHERNERS MAINTAIN 
THAT THE SOUTHERN REPRESENTATIVES PUSHED THIS THROUGH, 
AND THAT THE SOUTH HAD MUCH BETTER LOCAL GOVERNMENT 
CHAIRMEN ON BALANCE THUNHLE NORHEP 
CZIOLDERPDMOEUN 
OF TH COMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH ARE FAR MORE LIKELY TO 
HAVE FINISHED SECONDARY SCHOOL. 
 
12.  THE RECENT ABORTED TRANSITION ALSO ADVANCED 
FISSURES ALONG GENERATIONAL LINES.  ACCORDING TO THE 
OLD NPC/NPN/NRC TRADITION, THE PARTY ELDERS ARE 
SUPPOSED TO CONVENE AND DECIDE WHO THE CANDIDATE WILL 
BE.  THE FITS AND STARTS OF BANNING AND UNBANNING 
OHOROUGHLYHDIQNUPTED THIS PROCESS THE LAST TPME 
AROUND.  WHEN THE OLDBREED WERE UNBANNED, ADAMU CIROMA 
WAS ABLE TO MAKE A BID FOR THE NRC NOMINATION AND 
EVERYONE EXPECTED UMARU SHINKAFI, HIS JUNIOR, WOULD 
YIELD THE FLOOR.  SHINKAFI REFUSED TO DO THIS.  AFTER 
THE WHOLE "BAND OF 23" WAS BANNED AND THE PRIMARIES OF 
'92 WERE CANCELLED, OPTION A4 WAS ADOPTED.  HERE AGAIN, 
THE NEWBREED LIKE BASHIR TOFA SEIZED THE ADVANTAGE 
OFFERED OF ELIMINATING RIVALS AT THE EARLIEST STAGES BY 
SIZABLE PAYOFFS.  TOFA LOPPED OFF THE CHALLENGE IN KANO 
STATE FROM AMINU WALI AND IN KADUNA FROM GOWON AND, IN 
SO DOING, DEEPLY OFFENDED THE "ELDERS."  THEIR REFUSAL 
TO CAMPAIGN FOR HIM OR, INDEED, TO VOTE FOR HIM, GOES A 
LONG WAY TO EXPLAIN THE MASSIVE SUPPORT FOR ABIOLA IN 
PLACES LIKE KANO AND BAUCHI. 
 
13.  QUITE A NUMBER OF NORTHERN SDP ADHERENTS NOW 
OPENLY CHALLENGE WHAT THEY SEE AS THE DEAD HAND OF THE 
TRADITIONAL RULERS AND THE OLDER POLITICAL GENERATION. 
THEY REFUSE TO SEE WHY THEY SHOULD AUTOMATICALLY BOW TO 
THE DECISIONS OF THE ELDERS.  MANY CONTEMPTUOUSLY 
DISMISS THE EFFORTS OF THE TRADITIONAL RULERS TO PULL 
STRINGS BEHIND THE SCENES.  SO FAR, THESE JUNIORS ARE 
STILL SWIMMING AGAINST THE TIDE, BUT THEY DO REPRESENT 
THE FORCES OF THE FUTURE.  THE DEAD SARDAUNA AND THE 
NORTHERN TRADITION HE INSTITUTIONALIZED IS FADING FROM 
THE MEMORIES OF THE YOUNGER GENERATION.  THE "NEWBREED" 
DO, IN THIS SENSE AT LEAST, REPRESENT A MORE GENUINELY 
DEMOCRATIC AND LESS FEUDAL ORGANIZATION OF POLITICS. 
 
 
THE ROAD AHEAD 
-------------- 
 
14.  ONCE POLITICS RETURN OPENLY TO NIGERIA, THE NORTH 
IS POISED TO REENTER THE FRAY.  SHORTLY AFTER THE 
ANNULLMENT OF THE JUNE 12 ELECTION, VARIOUS MEETINGS OF 
NORTHERN POLITICIANS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PRESS. 
ONE, SPEARHEADED BY FORMER SECRETARY TO THE FEDERAL 
GOVERNMENT (UNDER OBASANJO), ALHAJI LIMAN CIROMA, 
COALESCED AROUND THE EFFORT TO FORM A "NATIONAL 
GOVERNMENT" TO TAKE OVER FROM BABANGIDA.  THE ORIGINAL 
IDEA OF THIS GROUP WAS TO FORM A GOVERNMENT MADE UP OF 
POLITICIANS OF ALL STRIPES; WHAT THEY GOT WAS 
SHONEKAN'S INTERIM NATIONAL GOVERNMENT WHICH FELL SHORT 
IN MANY IMPORTANT WAYS OF WHAT THE GROUW HAD HOPEDTO 
FASHON.  NEVERTHELESS, ADAMU CIROMA, BAM,:- 57174, 
AMINU SALEH,DALHATU TAFIDA, AND S.B. DANIYAN IN THE 
CURRENT CABINET ARE MOST LIKELY NOMINEES FROM THIS 
GROUP.  LIMAN CIROMA CONTINUES TBSPSXVA INLUEZAAL 
ROLE BEHID THE SCENES, AS WITNESS HIS AHMADU BELLO 
MEMORIAL LECTURE AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE AREWA 
HOUSE WORKSHOP ON "THE STATE OF THE NATION: WHICH WAY 
FORWARD?"  CONCERNING THIS LATTER IN-GATHERING OF THE 
NORTHERN (AMD SOME SOUTHERN) POLITICAL ELITE, THE FIRST 
PLAN TO ORGANIZE IT OPENLY AS A PREPARATORY SEMINAR FOR 
THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE WAS LATER CHANGED TO PLACE IT 
UNDER THE AUSPICES OF AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY.  THIS 
GAVE IT A THIN VEIL OF LEGITIMACY CONSIDERING THE 
CONTINUING PROHIBITION ON POLITICAL MEETINGS AND 
ORGANIZATIONS. 
 
15.  ALTHOUGH, IN OUR OPINION, THE GROUP AROUND LIMAN 
CIROMA REPRESENTS THE GENUINE OLD GUARD NORTHERN 
POLITICOS, ANOTHER GROUP BEGAN MEETING DURING THE 
SUMMER OF 1993, CALLING ITSELF THE "NORTHERN ELDERS." 
THIS WAS SPEARHEADED BY SUCH PERSONS AS ABDULRAHMAN 
OKENE AND MAITAMA SULE WHO GAVE A CERTAIN COVER, AS 
OLDBREED FORMER CIVIL SERVANTS, TO THE EFFORTS OF THE 
NORTHERN GOVERNORS TO COOPT THE LIMAN CIROMA GROUP. 
THIS GROUP MADE AN EFFORT TO ORGANIZE A CALL FOR IBB TO 
REMAIN IN OFFICE BEYOND AUGUST 27 WHICH, AS WE NOW 
KNOW, CAME TO NAUGHT.  THOSE IN THE CURRENT CABINET 
MOST LIKELY ALIGNED WITH THIS GROUP ARE BASHIR DALHATU 
AND POSSIBLY WADA NAS WHO COMES FROM THE SHINKAFI WING 
OF THE NRC.  MOST RECENTLY, HOWEVER, THE GROUP HELD A 
MEETING ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREWA HOUSE WORKSHIP AND 
ISSUED A DECLARATION CALLING FOR NATIONAL UNITY AND 
SUPPORTING THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE. 
 
16.  IF THE DEFUNCT NRC POLITICOS HAVE NOT YET PULLED 
THEMSELVES TOGETHER, THE SDP IS AN EVEN STRANGER 
SITUATION.  FOR ONE THING, THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 
WON THE NON-EVENT ON JUNE 12.  FOR ANOTHER, BABA GANA 
KINGIBE, REPRESENTING ONE WING OF THE NORTHERN SDP, IS 
IN THE INNER CIRCLE OF THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT. 
ABUBAKAR RIMI AND SOLOMON LAR, MEMBERS OF THE CABINET, 
REPRESENT RESPECTIVELY THE RADICAL KANO TRADITION AND 
THE MIDDLE BELT CHRISTIANS. 
 
17.  AND THEN THERE IS LT. GEN. SHEHU MUSA YAR'ADUA 
(RTD).  HE HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 
ABACHA REGIME, NOR DOES HE CONSIDER IT CAME TO POWER 
LEGITIMATELY.  RECENTLY, HIS STAR WAS GIVEN AN EVEN 
GREATER SHINE BY HIS SEEMINGLY POINTLESS DETENTION FOR 
FIVE DAYS.  HE HAS PLENTY OF MONEY AND GREAT AMBITION. 
HE VERY LIKELY ALSO HAS A GOOD DEAL OF ABILITY TO RUN 
THE COUNTRY.  IRONICALLY, HIS MAJOR DRAWBACK IS THE 
PIS FROM THE NORTH.  MANY NORTHERNERS, INCLUDING PEOPLE 
LIKE LIMAN CIROMA, BELIEVE THAT, WHATEVER DECISIONS ARE 
MADE OR NOT MADE ON ROTATIONAL OFFICES AND ZONING AT 
THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE, IT WILL BE A GREAT MISTAKE IF 
THE NEXT ELECTED PRESIDENT IS FROM THE NORTH.  BUT 
YAR'ADUA WANTS IT AND HE HAS MANY OF THE REQUIREMENTS 
-- MONEY, ORGANIZATION, CLEAN HANDS IN THE CURRENT MESS 
-- TO CLAIM A RIGHT TO RULE. 
 
 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
18.  NORTHERN NIGERIAN POLITICS ARE PROBABLY IN A STATE 
OF MORE PROFOUND CHANGE THAN POLITICAL ARRANGEMENTS IN 
THE SOUTH.  THE HEAVY HUND OF TRADITION HAS PERSISTED 
LONGER HERE, CAUSING INTERGENERATIONAL RESTIVENESS. 
THE FAULT LINES OF THE OLD NORTHERN REGION -- BOTH 
RELIGION AND TRIBE -- STILL EXIST AND IN MANY WAYS CUT 
DEEPER FOLLOWING EIGHT YEARS OF IBB'S EFFORTS TO 
EXACERBATE THEM.  MOST NORTHERNERS BELIEVE THAT, SHOULD 
PUSH COME TO SHOVE AT THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE AND THE 
NATION START TO SPLIT UP, THE MIDDLE BELT WILL THROW IN 
ITS LOT WITH THE FAR NORTH AND "PROGRESSIVE" 
NORTHEAST.  WE WOULDN'T WANT TO BE PRESSED ON THIS AT 
THE MOMENT.  IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT THE NORTH HAS NO 
INTENTION OF GIVING UP ON NATIONAL UNITY.   NOR DO 
MAINLINE NORTHERN POLITICIANS INTEND, WE BELIEVE, TO 
TAKE "NON-NEGOTIABLE" STANDS THAT WILL GIVE THE 
SOUTHERNERS AMMUNITION. 
 
 
WEINLAND