US embassy cable - 03HARARE546

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000546 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2013 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: MDC MASS ACTION IMMINENT 
 
REF: HARARE 516 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON.  REASONS: 1.5 ( 
B) AND (D). 
 
 
MDC finally calls for mass action 
---------------------------------- 
 
1.  (C) After a year of careful planning, the opposition 
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has, for the first time 
since the flawed 2002 presidential election,  issued a public 
call for Zimbabweans to participate in mass action, beginning 
on March 18 and 19.   In full-page advertisements carried in 
the independent newspapers, the MDC calls for "peaceful 
action carefully calculated to express discontent and disgust 
with the state of affairs within our nation...We must take up 
the challenge and engage in the most visible form of 
democratic resistance until our rights, freedoms, and dignity 
and the right to live in peace are won back."   The party has 
gotten the message out in a number of ways, including via 
special mass action structures established in most of the 
country's urban centers and distribution of large numbers of 
pamphlets.  In a March 15 interview with the independent 
weekly, "The Standard," MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai 
confirmed that mass action had been called for March 18 and 
19, but he declined to be drawn on what forms it would take. 
 
Possibility of violence 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Concerned by reports that some elements of the MDC 
were planning violent attacks against security service 
installations (reftel), the Ambassador urged restraint in a 
March 17 meeting with Tsvangirai.  The Ambassador told the 
MDC leader that the U.S. Government supported the right of 
the MDC and civil society to engage in  peaceful forms of 
mass action but counseled strongly against violent 
confrontation.  Such an approach would take away any claim 
the MDC had to the moral high ground and give the GOZ an 
excuse to crush the opposition.  Tsvangirai agreed, said the 
party was encouraging only peaceful activities and that the 
first phase to begin on March 18 was a work stayaway, with 
the possibility of peaceful demonstrations in some 
localities, but no march in downtown Harare as yet.  The 
party might proceed to broader demonstrations depending on 
what happens on March 18 and 19. 
 
3.  (C)  In a separate conversation with the DCM and 
polchief, MDC Member of Parliament and National Executive 
member Tendai Biti said he was not privy to all of the 
activities planned.  He reported, however, that MDC youths 
are planning to stone or burn commuter omnibuses which 
attempt to transport people to work in the city center.  He 
said the stayaway would likely be accompanied by 
demonstrations in the high-density suburbs, and that some 
groups of people might try to carry their protests to the 
city center.  Biti noted that the MDC is currently drawing up 
a list of businesses owned by ZANU-PF officials or party 
donors for the purposes of organizing a boycott.  Organizing 
a boycott of the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe, run by ZANU-PF 
stalwart Gideon Gono, would be fairly easy, Biti claimed, as 
Zimbabweans have many other banking options.  He pointed out, 
however, that it might be more difficult to convince people 
to shun other businesses which produce the basic commodities 
which are in such short supply these days. 
 
Stayaway participation 
---------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Meanwhile, many businesses we have checked with have 
confirmed that they plan either to close on March 18 and 19 
or to allow employees to miss work without sacrificing pay, 
motivated by concern for the safety of their workers who live 
in the high-density suburbs.  At the same time, some 
businessmen with whom we spoke were wary of taking any action 
that might be interpreted by ruling party enforcers as 
support for the stayaway.  Contemplating that many of our 
FSN's who live in high-density suburbs might have difficulty 
getting to work on these two days, the Embassy has announced 
a liberal leave policy. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C)  The MDC has worked intensively during the past year 
to establish structures in most of Zimbabwe's urban centers 
capable of organizing mass action.  The fact that Tsvangirai, 
who has been under enormous pressure to take such a step for 
much of the past year, has now called for mass action 
suggests he believes that the necessary organization is in 
place and that the eminently patient Zimbabwean population, 
angered by political repression and the economic implosion, 
are finally ready to demonstrate their displeasure.  During 
the past several months, the MDC has planned a number of 
small-scale protests in Harare's high-density suburbs -- at 
bus stations, police stations, and food queues -- and appears 
ready to broaden these activities. 
 
6.  (C) Although it is impossible to predict the outcome of 
the March 18-19 stayaway, the fact that some employers have 
promised not to dock their employees' pay and the fact that 
many Zimbabweans have been urging the MDC to organize such an 
action for some time now, increase the chances for a 
successful stayaway.  While recent labor union calls for 
stayaways have flopped, the MDC has prepared the current 
action more carefully and is seen by more Zimbabweans as the 
embodiment of hope for change.  And while the MDC evinces 
confidence about this action's prospects for success, the 
party also is aware of the risks and high costs of failure. 
We are concerned about the possibility of violence and have 
counseled the MDC at many levels, from Tsvangirai down, not 
to initiate violence.  Although the MDC leadership regularly 
insists to us that it is pursing political change through 
peaceful means, we cannot rule out the possibility of 
spontaneous outbreaks of violence associated with the 
stayaway.  Security forces are on high alert and will seek to 
frustrate any organized MDC action. 
SULLIVAN