US embassy cable - 03AMMAN1580

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001580 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2013 
TAGS: PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: GOJ WELCOMES POTUS STATEMENT ON ROADMAP BUT 
COMMENTATORS REMAIN SKEPTICAL; PM CALLS FOR NATIONAL UNITY 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) In what most here see as the final days before the 
beginning of a U.S.-led war against Iraq, senior GOJ 
officials have issued a series of public statements welcoming 
the President's March 14 Statement on the Roadmap and calling 
for national unity in the face of imminent challenges.  At 
the same time, the government allowed peaceful anti-war 
demonstrations to take place March 15 in Amman and Irbid 
(septel).  Comments by Embassy contacts and in the local 
press make clear that -- the President's statement 
notwithstanding -- most Jordanians remain deeply skeptical 
about U.S. motives and plans for the region.  End Summary. 
 
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GOJ Welcomes President's Roadmap Endorsement 
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2. (U) Soon after the President's March 14 Rose Garden 
presentation, King Abdullah and FM Marwan Muasher quickly 
issued public statements welcoming the news that Washington 
would publicize the Roadmap soon after the naming of a 
Palestinian PM.  FM Muasher told the official Petra News 
Service March 14 that "Jordan has constantly called for the 
need to declare a roadmap and start work immediately on its 
execution without any modifications," while the King on March 
15 said "the announcement . . . gives strong momentum to the 
efforts that aim at easing tension and violence in 
Palestinian territories." 
 
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Emphasis on National Unity 
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3. (U) These official comments came a day after statements PM 
Ali Abul Ragheb had made stressing the need for Jordan to 
maintain national cohesion and unity, given the regional 
uncertainties of the moment.  In a March 13 meeting with the 
Secretaries General of Jordan's 30 registered political 
 
SIPDIS 
parties, Abul Ragheb stated that "the homeland's security and 
stability is a collective responsibility" and called on the 
parties to "carry out their role in making citizens aware of 
the need to behave responsibly."  According to press reports 
of the gathering, the PM told the assembled party heads that 
"Jordan, through its conscious (sic) leadership and the 
joined forces of its institutions and citizens, is able to 
surpass the difficult circumstances imposed by the regional 
situation." 
 
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Peaceful Anti-War Marches 
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4. (C)  Notwithstanding these statements expressing hope for 
forward movement on the MEPP and confidence in the Kingdom's 
inner strength, the GOJ has also recognized the need to allow 
Jordanians to express their opposition to a possible Iraq war 
as a means of managing current internal pressures.  On March 
15, the GOJ allowed large, peaceful demonstrations to be held 
in Amman and Irbid, the country's third largest city (details 
septel).  While the gatherings (each numbering in the several 
thousand) were peaceful, the rhetoric was (according to press 
reports and Embassy security contacts) sharp and 
anti-American in tone. 
 
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Few Minds Changed Regarding U.S. Plans and Motives 
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5. (C) An initial check of Embassy contacts and the local 
press indicate that the President's 3/14 statement has thus 
far done little to alter the Jordanian public's deep 
skepticism about U.S. policy vis-a-vis Iraq or the MEPP.  A 
common sentiment is that the President's statement is nothing 
more than a momentary attempt to divert Arab opposition from 
an Iraq war.  One contact told POLFSN "the Roadmap is an 
obvious cover by Bush to look good while he plans to strike 
Iraq."  Another noted "Bush's words and promises mean 
nothing," while former Parliamentarian Mahmoud Kharabsheh 
(East Banker) told Poloff "nobody believes this means 
anything." 
 
6. (C) While the Arabic dailies led with President Bush's 
announcement and the King's welcoming of it as their lead 
stories, their commentary was deeply skeptical.  A cartoon in 
the influential Ad-Dustour showed President Bush in military 
garb marching to war while tossing "The Palestinian 
tranquilizer" pill over his shoulder into the mouth of an 
ecstatic Arab.  Prominent columnist Tariq Masarweh predicts 
in the semi-official daily al-Rai that the announcement 
"would do nothing to assuage popular anger or U.S. double 
standards, and the promised Palestinian state, should it ever 
materialize despite 'impossible preconditions,' would lack 
borders, people, a capital and contiguous territory." 
 
7. (C) The government-affiliated English-language Jordan 
Times took a somewhat more positive tone and characterized 
the President's statement as "long overdue, but nonetheless 
welcomed."  It went on to note, however, that if the 
President "is serious about solving the conflict, he should 
be evenhanded.  Before asking the Palestinians for a prime 
minister with 'real authority,' he should ask Israel for a 
real commitment to peace."  Longtime establishment columnist 
Musa Keilani summed up the general skepticism by noting "If 
we are misreading the situation, then let Washington correct 
it right now by setting a deadline for Israel to publicly 
undertake to abide by UN Security Council resolutions and 
then implement that undertaking.  Anything short of that 
would be meaningless and sheer deception." 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) The King has long expressed the concern that 
simultaneous conflicts in Iraq and the West Bank could create 
significant problems for Jordan.  The GOJ has been pressing 
for public release and presidential endorsement of the 
Roadmap, and will be pleased by the President's remarks. 
Nonetheless, most Jordanians will view this move as a way to 
distract world attention from Iraq, and will be convinced of 
our sincerity only when they see concrete progress toward a 
Palestinian state. 
GNEHM