US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA723

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000723 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HOMELAND SECURITY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO, KPLS, TFUS01, TFUS02, TFUS02,  CA 
SUBJECT:  DISTANT NEIGHBORS, NORTHERN STYLE: CANADIAN 
OPINION OF THE U.S. 
 
1. Summary and Conclusion. International debate on the war 
on terrorism and impending war in Iraq has raised serious 
concern about "What the World Thinks" about the United 
States and its foreign policies.  This is as true for Canada 
as for the rest of the world.  Canada is our largest trading 
partner; shares our longest land border; and has been a 
close ally in two world wars, the Cold War and in the war on 
terrorism.  Implementation of new security measures post 9- 
11, such as NSEERS and visa requirements for Commonwealth 
Landed Immigrants in Canada, as well as perennial bilateral 
trade issues, have given us additional reason to ask how 
Canadians perceive us. 
 
2. This is the first in a series of cables that attempts to 
assess Canadian opinion of the U.S. and public support in 
Canada for U.S. policies.  This report reviews the findings 
of three recent, publicly released Canadian public opinion 
polls.  These polls indicate that we still enjoy a reservoir 
of good will with most Canadians.  But the polls also 
indicate that the international environment post 9-11 has 
drawn heavily on that good will.  The U.S. has a broad and 
complex policy agenda in which Canadian opinion matters. 
The opinion polling results suggest that, as we implement 
our policy agenda, we will need to find ways effectively to 
shore up public support from our nearest neighbors.  End 
Summary and Conclusion. 
 
IRAQ: CANADIAN VIEWS ARE MIXED BUT GENERALLY SUPPORT 
MILITARY ACTION ONLY IF SANCTIONED BY THE UN. 
 
3. The most recent publicly released national poll was 
conducted by the firm Ipsos-Reid on February 28 2003.  It 
finds a slim majority (51 percent) of Canadians saying that 
the UN Security Council has enough evidence to authorize 
military action against Iraq.  This is a small but 
significant shift from a poll conducted 10 days earlier in 
which 52 percent of Canadians said that there was not enough 
evidence to authorize an attack. 
 
4. This does not mean that a majority of Canadians support 
the U.S. position on Iraq.  62 per cent of Canadians in the 
Feb 28 survey continue to believe that Canada should support 
more time for UN inspectors in Iraq to complete their 
mission.  62 percent of Canadians also say that Canada 
should provide assistance for military action in Iraq only 
if the UN decides military action is required. 
 
5. Only 32 percent of Canadians feel Canada should support 
U.S. and U.K. calls for immediate military action to remove 
Saddam Hussein from power.  Even fewer - 18 percent - say 
that Canada should provide military assistance if the U.S. 
decides that military action is required in Iraq without UN 
authorization.  Another 18 percent of Canadians feel that 
Canada should provide no military assistance for any action 
in Iraq, even if authorized by the UN. 
 
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN CANADIAN PERCEPTIONS 
 
6. Canada's regions exhibit differing patterns of support 
for the U.S. position on Iraq.  The view that the UN 
Security Council now has enough evidence to authorize 
military action against Iraq is shared by at least half of 
the residents in each region except in Quebec, where only 34 
percent of Canadians hold this view.  When Quebec is removed 
from the national polling, agreement among Canadians rises 
to 57 percent. 
 
7. Of all Canadians, Albertans exhibit the highest level of 
support; 70 percent believe the UN has sufficient evidence 
to authorize military action.  Other western Canadians, 
however, are more strongly opposed.  In Saskatchewan and 
Manitoba, 67 percent (up from 53 percent in the earlier 
poll) now say that Canada should support more time for UN 
inspectors.  Only 28 percent (down from 42 percent in the 
earlier poll) say that Canada should support the U.S./U.K. 
position on the need for military action in Iraq. 
 
A BASELINE OF CANADIAN OPINION OF THE U.S. - THE PEW CENTER 
STUDY. 
 
8. The Pew Center Study, published at the end of 2002, has 
been widely discussed in U.S. and foreign media, including 
the media in Canada.  The study received relatively little 
attention on a country-by-country basis, however.  The 
Study, conducted in July 2002, shows that Canadians hold 
positive attitudes about the U.S.  At 72 percent favorable, 
Canadians held a more positive image of the U.S. than almost 
any other country (among traditional allies, only the U.K. 
was more positive at 75 percent).  That rating by Canadians 
was up one percentage point, from 71 percent, in the 
previous year's survey. 
 
9. The Pew Center Study also indicates that Canadians and 
Americans are alike in many of their national perceptions. 
They express remarkably similar satisfaction with their own 
lives.  67 percent of Canadians and 64 per cent of Americans 
are satisfied with their personal lives, far higher levels 
of satisfaction than in other industrialized western 
nations.  Canadians and Americans also express similar views 
of "progress" in their countries over the past five years 
(51 percent among Americans, 48 percent among Canadians). 
And they express similar levels of "optimism" about the 
future (61 per cent among Americans and 54 per cent among 
Canadians).  Americans and Canadians are significantly more 
optimistic about the future than are western Europeans. 
 
10. Yet there are significant differences in American and 
Canadian perceptions of specific issue areas on the world 
scene.  50 percent of Americans identify terrorism as a 
"very big" problem; only 19 percent of Canadians expressed 
that concern.  The Pew Study found a duality of opinion 
among the U.S.' closest allies in their support for the war 
against terrorism.  Canadian opinion fits that pattern: 68 
per cent of Canadians supported the U.S. led war on 
terrorism; but only 25 percent of Canadians believed that 
U.S. foreign policy "considers others" when making 
international policy decisions, including decisions about 
countering international terrorism. 
 
11. Canadians are critical of the U.S. in the economic 
sphere.  68 percent of Canadians believe that the U.S. does 
"too little to solve problems related to the gap between 
rich and poor countries." On issues of pollution and the 
environment, nearly twice as many Canadians as Americans are 
"worried" (44 per cent vs. 23 per cent).  While 50 percent 
of Canadians like "American ideas about democracy," 56 
percent of Canadians dislike "American ideas about business 
practices." 
 
12. Canadians have mixed views of U.S. cultural influence 
but they are far less critical than Europeans.  54 per cent 
of Canadians expressed the sentiment that the "spread of 
American ideas and customs" was bad.  This compares with 71 
percent in France, 67 percent in Germany and 68 percent in 
Russia.  Yet 77 percent of Canadians "like" American popular 
culture.  This compares with 66 percent in France and 
Germany and only 42 percent in Russia. 
 
13. Among western countries, only in Canada does a strong 
majority (77 per cent) express a positive view of 
immigration.  Among other major industrial countries, 
Americans show the next highest level of support for 
immigration; but at 49 percent, American support for 
immigration is far lower than Canadian. 
 
CANADIAN OPINION UPDATE: A NEGATIVE SHIFT? 
 
14. The Pew Center in Canada was conducted by the Environics 
Research Group in July, 2002.  The same firm conducted a 
separate poll with a different set of respondents in 
February 2003.  The two polls were not designed to be 
strictly inter-comparable.  Nevertheless, the findings of 
the later poll may suggest a negative shift in Canadian 
perceptions of the U.S.  The overall Canadian attitude 
toward the U.S. remained favorable.  But at 62 percent, it 
was considerably lower than in August 2002. 
A majority of Quebecers - 54 per cent - for the first time 
held an unfavorable opinion of the U.S., a 20 percent drop 
since August 2002. 
 
15. The polling data from Quebec suggests that, despite the 
decline of separatism as a political issue, there is still a 
significant anglophone/francophone division of opinion on 
international issues.  This is particularly interesting as 
Quebecers often have been viewed as more pro-American than 
other Canadians - particularly in Ontario - because of wide 
support for free trade and American culture.  In another 
twist, the latest poll finds Canadians overall holding more 
positive views of both the U.K. and France than of the U.S. 
77 percent of Canadians hold a favorable view of the U.K. 
compared to 69 percent for France and 62 percent for the 
U.S.  The favorable rating for France in Quebec was 80 
percent compared with 62 percent for the U.K. and 40 percent 
for the U.S. 
 
16. COMMENT. These polling results indicate that Canadian 
perceptions of the U.S. are mixed and dynamic, and that they 
exhibit significant regional differences.  Future cables 
will attempt to assess more anecdotally the extent to which 
Canadian perceptions may reflect deeper sentiments in favor 
of peace and in favor of multi-lateral action; and the 
extent to which such sentiments may translate into "anti- 
American" feelings.  END COMMENT.  Cellucci