US embassy cable - 03OTTAWA714

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000714 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CA, Liberal Party 
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF CANADIAN POLITICS: THE RULING LIBERAL 
PARTY LEADERSHIP CONTEST IS ON 
 
This message is sensitive, but unclassified.  Handle 
accordingly. 
 
1.(U) SUMMARY. Former Finance Minister Paul Martin Jr. filed 
nomination papers for the leadership contest of the governing 
Liberal Party on March 6. At this juncture, Heritage Minister 
Sheila Copps, whose candidacy was declared on the first day 
of the official campaign period, is the only other MP openly 
running for the leadership. Deputy PM and current Finance 
Minister John Manley is expected to toss his hat into the 
ring in the near future.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) The Liberals have held power consecutively for a 
decade under the leadership of Jean Chretien, who won three 
successive Parliamentary majorities at general elections in 
1993, 1997 and 2000 ) a rare feat in Canadian politics. 
Nevertheless, the party owes a significant measure of its 
success to Paul Martin Jr. for his strong performance as 
Finance Minister during 1993-2002. 
 
3. (U) The son of a prominent Liberal minister whose own 
prime ministerial ambitions were never realized, Paul Martin 
has been a Member of Parliament for some 15 years.  In 
addition to his natural appeal to the business community (he 
is a successful financier and industrialist in his own right) 
Martin has cultivated important social and environmental 
policymaking credentials.  Moreover, as Finance Minister 
under Chretien, he turned around the nation,s serious budget 
deficit into a surplus within a few years, while 
simultaneously reducing unemployment and inflation )- a feat 
that few &ex ante8 observers thought possible. 
 
4. (SBU) Despite his clear advantage early in the contest, 
Paul Martin seems to be leaving nothing to chance, including 
the timing of the official launch of his campaign in April, 
from his home riding of LaSalle-Emard, Montreal, to 
&maximize the impact8 on vote-getting.  In filing for 
nomination-*which requires paying a deposit of half the 
$75,000 candidacy fee by June 10--candidates get access to 
bulk membership forms (allowing them to enlist new members in 
groups of 100) and Liberal party membership lists that are 
vital to any campaign.  Moreover, in light of the CAD 4 
million ceiling on official campaign expenditures, it is in 
Martin,s interest to delay imposing such a constraint on his 
war chest (he has been touring the country in unofficial 
appearances since his resignation from Cabinet). 
 
THE MARTIN-CHRETIEN DYNAMIC 
--------------------------- 
5. (SBU) A long time political rival of Chretien, Martin,s 
relationship with the Prime Minister has been especially 
tense following their 1990 competition for the Liberal 
leadership.  Martin,s adept handling of the finance 
portfolio -- until that time considered a dead end for 
leadership aspirants -- and his unceasing ambition for the 
party leadership only aggravated the rivalry and culminated 
in Martin,s resignation from Cabinet last summer. 
 
6. (SBU) By that time, the former Finance Minister already 
had developed a seemingly unassailable advantage in political 
reputation and riding-by-riding organization, and an enviable 
campaign war chest.  Although he placed second in the 1990 
leadership contest with only 25 percent of the vote, in the 
intervening years Martin,s supporters diligently gained 
control of key elements of the party machinery, enabling 
their candidate to position well ahead of the pack in the 
current contest.  His personal wealth and an apparent knack 
for fundraising have given Martin the wherewithal to gain 
name recognition and to publicize his credentials well ahead 
of the official campaign season launched February 24. 
 
THE OTHER CONTESTANTS 
--------------------- 
7. (SBU) Although the names of other senior Ministers have 
continued to surface as potential leadership contestants, few 
have taken up the gauntlet seriously. Industry Minister Allan 
Rock dropped out of possible contention in January 2003 and 
Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal recently indicated 
that he would not run for personal reasons. While Canadian 
Heritage Minister Sheila Copps formalized her intentions in 
February, she is said to have done so primarily at the urging 
of PM Chretien, ostensibly to avoid the appearance of an 
uncontested race for Paul Martin. It is expected that Copps 
will receive a "golden parachute" from Chrtien in the form 
of a coveted "permanent" patronage appointment before he 
steps down. 
 
8. (SBU) Deputy Prime Minister John Manley, who also 
succeeded Martin in the Finance portfolio, is expected to 
announce his candidacy at some point. Observers speculate 
that he will need to be assured of a strong second place 
finish, in order to position himself for a good job in a 
Martin Cabinet (Finance, Foreign Affairs) and a run at the 
leadership post-Martin (Manley is 53 compared to Martin's 
64).  As one Embassy contact commented, a weak finish for 
Manley in a leadership race would not help his political 
prospects, and he likely will want to avoid incurring heavy 
campaign debt. 
 
9. (SBU) COMMENT:  At this time, some 8 months before the 
November convention, Paul Martin is widely deemed the 
probable successor to Chretien, certainly as leader of the 
Liberals and likely as PM following a general election.  His 
organizational lead, combined with personal wealth unmatched 
by other candidates, continue to give him vast advantages in 
the leadership race.  Although his ownership of the 
multi-million dollar Canadian Steamship Lines has been under 
attack as an ethics issue, Martin recently announced his 
intent to cede ownership of the company and implement 
additional transparency measures, in close consultation with 
the current government Ethics Commissioner, to preclude any 
question about his ties to/influence on the company "should" 
he become Prime Minister.  END COMMENT. 
CELLUCCI