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| Identifier: | 03ROME1069 |
|---|---|
| Wikileaks: | View 03ROME1069 at Wikileaks.org |
| Origin: | Embassy Rome |
| Created: | 2003-03-14 14:52:00 |
| Classification: | UNCLASSIFIED |
| Tags: | EAID EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF KUNR WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN KUNR EAID WFP UN |
| Redacted: | This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks. |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 001069
SIPDIS
AIDAC
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, AA/ANE CHAMBERLAIN, DCHA/FFP
LANDIS, PPC/DP, PPC/DC
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S EUR JONES,
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 02 ROME 01069 01 OF 03 141556Z
EUR/CACEN, IO/EDA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND MCHAMBLISS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID, EAGR, AORC, PREF, EAGR, AORC, PREF, EAGR, AORC, PREF, KUNR, WFP, UN, KUNR EAID, WFP, UN, KUNR EAID, WFP, UN
SUBJECT: IMMINENT WFP FOOD PIPELINE BREAK IN THE CAUCASUS
-------
SUMMARY
-------
> > 1. US MISSION ROME PROGRAM
SPECIALIST TRAVELED TO ARMENIA, GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN FROM
FEBRUARY 23 THROUGH MARCH 8, 2003. WFP'S PROTRACTED RELIEF
AND RECOVERY OPERATIONS (PRROS) IN EACH OF THOSE COUNTRIES
WERE ASSESSED AND DETERMINED TO BE IN NEED OF EXPEDITED
SUPPORT. END SUMMARY.
------------------
ARMENIA BACKGROUND
------------------
2. PRRO 10053.0 BEGAN IN JULY OF 2001 AND IS SCHEDULED TO
END IN JUNE OF 2004. APPROXIMATELY U.S. DOLLARS 32.8
MILLION FOR 60,794 METRIC TONS OF COMMODITIES IS REQUIRED TO
ASSIST 140,000 BENEFICIARIES A YEAR CONSISTING OF REFUGEES
OR INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS, HOMELESS EARTHQUAKE
VICTIMS, DISABLED PERSONS, SINGLE ELDERLY PENSIONERS,
DESTITUTE WOMEN AND SCHOOLCHILDREN.
3. AS A SOVIET REPUBLIC, ARMENIA WAS A HEAVY INDUSTRIALIZED
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 03 ROME 01069 01 OF 03 141556Z
COUNTRY. IN 1985, ARMENIA ATTRIBUTED ALMOST 75 PERCENT OF
ITS GDP TO INDUSTRY. THE BREAK-UP OF THE SOVIET UNION AND
THE CONFLICT WITH AZERBAIJAN OVER NAGORNO-KARABAGH RESULTED
IN AN ENERGY CRISIS AND ECONOMIC BLOCKADE. THESE FACTORS,
TOGETHER WITH THE 1998 RUSSIAN FINANCIAL COLLAPSE, CAUSED A
FURTHER DECLINE IN AND REARRANGEMENT OF THE ECONOMY.
4. TODAY, AGRICULTURE PRODUCES ABOUT 30 PERCENT COMPARED
WITH INDUSTRY'S 20 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY'S GDP.
UNEMPLOYMENT, WHICH HAS FORCED A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE
POPULATION TO RELY ON SUBSISTENCE FARMING, HOVERS AT 25
PERCENT. THE GINI COEFFICIENT, A MEASURE OF INCOME INEQUITY,
WAS RATED AT 0.690 IN 1999 AND CONTINUES TO REMAIN
STUBBORNLY HIGH.
5. THE PRRO HAS RECEIVED ABOUT U.S. 10.6 MILLION SINCE ITS
INCEPTION, AND NOW STOCKS OF COMMODITIES ARE ALMOST
EXHAUSTED. THE APPROVED FOOD BASKET CONSISTS OF WHEAT
FLOUR, PULSES, VEGETABLE OIL, AND SUGAR, A REQUIREMENT OF
ABOUT 1,700 METRIC TONS PER MONTH. SHORTFALLS IN VEGETABLE
OIL BEGIN TO APPEAR THIS MONTH AND IN WHEAT FLOUR NEXT
MONTH.
---------------
ARMENIA COMMENT
---------------
6. IF CONTRIBUTIONS DO NOT MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY, WFP IN
ARMENIA WILL BE FACED WITH A HOBSON'S CHOICE OF REDUCING THE
AMOUNT OF FOOD DISTRIBUTED OR BENEFICIARIES RECEIVING IT. A
SMALL INVESTMENT NOW WILL PROVIDE AN IMMENSE BENEFIT TO
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 04 ROME 01069 01 OF 03 141556Z
DESERVING PEOPLE DURING THEIR TRANSITION TO A MARKET
ECONOMY. END COMMENT.
------------------
GEORGIA BACKGROUND
------------------
7. PRRO 10211.0 IS A THREE-YEAR PROGRAM RUNNING FROM APRIL
2003 TO THE END OF MARCH 2006. A TOTAL OF U.S. DOLLARS 23.4
MILLION FOR ABOUT 50,493 METRIC TONS OF COMMODITIES IS
REQUIRED TO ASSIST 209,500 REFUGEES, IDPS AND VULNERABLE
GROUPS IN BOTH URBAN AND RURAL AREAS.
8. SINCE ITS INDEPENDENCE FROM THE SOVIET UNION IN 1991,
GEORGIA HAS CONTINUED TO FACE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CRISES
INCLUDING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT, AND
CIVIL STRIFE. GOVERNMENT FIGURES REPORT THAT GEORGIA'S
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FELL BY 78 PERCENT BETWEEN 1990 AND
2000. PUBLIC EXPENDITURE HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS FOR THE MOST
VULNERABLE. THE NON-PAYMENT OF GOVERNMENT WAGES AND
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED PTQ6727
PAGE 01 ROME 01069 02 OF 03 141556Z
ACTION AID-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
OIGO-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01
VCE-00 NSAE-00 OES-00 OIC-02 PC-01 TEST-00 TRSE-00
EPAE-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 SAS-00 /005W
------------------447D26 141556Z /38
P 141452Z MAR 03
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8737
INFO AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
AMEMBASSY TBILISI
AMEMBASSY BAKU
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
USDA FAS WASHDC 2593
SECDEF WASHDC
USEU BRUSSELS 3162
USMISSION GENEVA
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 001069
SIPDIS
AIDAC
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, AA/ANE CHAMBERLAIN, DCHA/FFP
LANDIS, PPC/DP, PPC/DC
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S EUR JONES,
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 02 ROME 01069 02 OF 03 141556Z
EUR/CACEN, IO/EDA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND MCHAMBLISS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID, EAGR, AORC, WFP, UN, PREF, KUNR
SUBJECT: IMMINENT WFP FOOD PIPELINE BREAK IN THE CAUCASUS
PENSIONS AND THE DECLINE IN PRIVATE INCOME HAVE COMPOUNDED
AN ALREADY DESPERATE SITUATION WHERE MANY ARE FORCED TO SELL
THEIR BELONGINGS TO BUY FOOD.
9. THE ECONOMIC DEVASTATION HAS BEEN COMPOUNDED BY A SERIES
OF TERRITORIAL DISPUTES, ARMED CONFLICT AND POLITICAL
CRISES. UNRESOLVED ETHNIC CONFLICTS IN THE BREAKAWAY
REGIONS OF SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA HAVE RESULTED IN THE
INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT OF MORE THAN 250,000 PEOPLE. IN
ADDITION, WFP FEEDS REFUGEES FROM CHECHNYA.
---------------
GEORGIA COMMENT
---------------
10. TO DATE, OF THE U.S. DOLLARS 23.4 MILLION REQUIRED, ONLY
2 PERCENT (U.S. 500,000 DOLLARS) HAS BEEN PLEDGED BY DONORS.
WITHOUT IMMEDIATE SUPPORT, GEORGIA WILL HAVE TO CUT BACK ON
DISTRIBUTIONS AS EARLY AS APRIL WHEN THEY WILL FACE A
SHORTFALL IN CEREALS. A COMPLETE PIPELINE BREAK IN ALL
COMMODITIES IS FORESEEN IN MAY UNLESS NEW CONTRIBUTIONS ARE
RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. END COMMENT.
---------------------
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 03 ROME 01069 02 OF 03 141556Z
AZERBAIJAN BACKGROUND
---------------------
11. PRRO 10168.0 FOR AZERBAIJAN, ONLY RECENTLY APPROVED IN
MAY OF 2002 WITH EARLY AND STRONG USG ENDORSEMENT, BEGAN IN
JANUARY 2003 AND IS SCHEDULED TO END IN DECEMBER OF 2005.
12. WAR WITH ARMENIA IN 1992 AND 1993 RESULTED IN THE LOSS
OF 20 PERCENT OF AZERBAIJAN'S TOTAL TERRITORY, 70 PERCENT OF
ITS FERTILE LAND, AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF 600,000 PEOPLE
PLUS ANOTHER 200,000 REFUGEES.
13. THESE 800,000 INDEPENDENT DISPLACED PEOPLE AND REFUGEES
CONSTITUTE 10 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL POPULATION, REPRESENTING
ONE OF THE HIGHEST PROPORTIONS OF DISPLACED POPULATIONS IN
THE WORLD. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RESETTLEMENT, LAND
ALLOCATION AND EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, THE TARGETED
430,500 BENEFICIARIES, REQUIRING AN ESTIMATED U.S. DOLLARS
20 MILLION FOR 43,087 METRIC TONS OF COMMODITIES WILL
NECESSARILY RELY ON FOOD AID IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM.
MEANWHILE, THE LONG ANTICIPATED ECONOMIC BOOM BORNE BY OIL
REVENUES HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE.
14. IN ADDITION, IN DESCRIBING CHRONIC MALNUTRITION, THE
UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM'S AZERBAIJAN HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2002 STATES THAT ABOUT 30.5 PERCENT OF
THE YOUNG CHILDREN OF REFUGEES AND INDEPENDENT DISPLACED
PEOPLE (IDPS) ARE STUNTED.
15. LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF PLANNED CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE BEEN
PLEDGED. THESE FUNDS ARE DESPERATELY NEEDED TO MAINTAIN THE
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 04 ROME 01069 02 OF 03 141556Z
MINIMUM DIETARY STANDARDS OF FOOD-INSECURE IDPS AND OTHER
VULNERABLE GROUPS THROUGH TARGETED INTERVENTIONS AND TAKE-
HOME RATIONS. WFP AND ITS PARTNERS SUCH AS WORLD VISION ARE
ALSO PROMOTING TARGETED INTERVENTIONS AND ACTIVITIES LEADING
TO SELF-RELIANCE AND THE CREATION OF ASSETS THROUGH TRAINING
AND INCOME GENERATION. SCHOOL FEEDING WILL PROVIDE
INCENTIVES FOR SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, ESPECIALLY AMONG GIRLS,
WHILE ADDRESSING IODINE AND OTHER MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES
OF ALL CHILDREN.
16. IN APRIL WFP WILL EXPERIENCE A SHORTFALL OF ABOUT 940
TONS. BY THE END OF JULY, THE ESTIMATED SHORTFALL WILL BE
ALMOST 3,900 METRIC TONS IN WHEAT FLOUR ALONE.
------------------
AZERBAIJAN COMMENT
------------------
17. ON MARCH 4, 2003 THE US MISSION PROGRAM SPECIALIST MET
WITH MR. ALI HASANOV, THE AZERBAIJANI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER
CONCERNING FOOD AID. MR. HASANOV CONVEYED HIS DEEPEST
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED PTQ6726
PAGE 01 ROME 01069 03 OF 03 141556Z
ACTION AID-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 NSAE-00 OES-00 OIC-02 PC-01 IRM-00 TEST-00
TRSE-00 EPAE-00 PRM-00 DRL-01 SAS-00 /005W
------------------447D3E 141556Z /38
P 141452Z MAR 03
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8738
INFO AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
AMEMBASSY TBILISI
AMEMBASSY BAKU
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
USDA FAS WASHDC 2594
SECDEF WASHDC
USEU BRUSSELS 3163
USMISSION GENEVA
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 001069
SIPDIS
AIDAC
FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME
USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, AA/ANE CHAMBERLAIN, DCHA/FFP
LANDIS, PPC/DP, PPC/DC
STATE FOR IO A/S HOLMES, A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S EUR JONES,
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 02 ROME 01069 03 OF 03 141556Z
EUR/CACEN, IO/EDA
USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND MCHAMBLISS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID, EAGR, AORC, WFP, UN, PREF, KUNR
SUBJECT: IMMINENT WFP FOOD PIPELINE BREAK IN THE CAUCASUS
GRATITUDE AND APPRECIATION FOR THE STRONG SUPPORT GIVEN BY
THE USG TO THE PRRO FOR AZERBAIJAN DURING WFP'S EXECUTIVE
BOARD MEETING IN MAY 2002, AN INTERVENTION THAT LED TO THE
APPROVAL OF THE PROJECT. A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION FOR THE
PRRO WOULD FOLLOW THROUGH ON THE USG'S EARLIER VERBAL
SUPPORT. END COMMENT.
--------------------------------------------- -------
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WFP PRROS IN
ARMENIA, GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN
--------------------------------------------- --------
18. INTENDED BENEFICIARIES OF ALL THREE OF THE WFP PRROS IN
THE CAUCASUS INCLUDE A LARGE POPULATION OF REFUGEES AND IDPS
AS WELL AS OTHER FOOD INSECURE POPULATIONS INCLUDING THE
ELDERLY AND CHILDREN.
19. IN EACH COUNTRY THE US MISSION PROGRAM SPECIALIST
OBSERVED AND ASSESSED WFP'S LOGISTICS CAPABILITY AND
CONTROLS, SELECTED FIELD PROJECTS, INTERNAL SYSTEMS AND
STAFF EFFECTIVENESS, AND BENEFICIARY SELECTION AND
MONITORING.
20. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL TENDENCY FOR HUMANITARIAN
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 03 ROME 01069 03 OF 03 141556Z
ASSISTANCE TO CREATE DEPENDENT POPULATIONS, THIS PHENOMENON
IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GROWTH IN THE RECIPIENT POPULATIONS. ON
THE CONTRARY, WFP ASSISTANCE, OCCASIONALLY IN PARTNERSHIP
WITH OTHER WELL-RUN ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS WORLD VISION, IS
WELL TARGETED AND PROVIDED EFFECTIVELY AND EFFICIENTLY.
21. HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN THE CAUCASUS CONTINUES TO BE
REQUIRED, IF ONLY ON A SMALL SCALE IN COMPARISON TO MANY
OTHER AREAS OF THE WORLD. IRONICALLY, THE MODEST SCALE OF
ASSISTANCE MAY EXPLAIN WHY DONOR COUNTRIES HAVE NEGLECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO WFP'S PRROS. CONTRIBUTIONS OF 154,000 METRIC
TONS, WHICH REPRESENT TOTAL REQUIREMENTS, WOULD ENABLE WFP
TO CARRY OUT ITS ASSISTANCE TO 881,000 INTENDED RECIPIENTS
IN ALL THREE COUNTRIES AS PLANNED. DELAYS WILL ENTAIL
REDUCTIONS IN PROGRAM SCOPE.
22. THE USAID MISSION DIRECTORS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
SUPPORT THE WFP PROGRAMS IN THEIR COUNTRIES AND ENCOURAGE A
POSITIVE RESPONSE TO THEIR APPEALS ON THE PART OF USAID/FOOD
FOR PEACE.
23. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE ASSESSMENT OF WFP ACTIVITIES IN
THE SOUTH CAUCASUS, THE US MISSION URGES USG FUNDING
ORGANIZATIONS, PRINCIPALLY THE FOOD FOR PEACE OFFICE WITHIN
USAID, TO TAKE EARLY ACTION TO SUPPORT ALL 3 PRROS.
23. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. HALL
UNCLASSIFIED
>
2003ROME01069 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
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