US embassy cable - 94KADUNA203

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KADUNA 00203 
 
 
LONDON FOR MCKINLEY, PARIS FOR PERLOW 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W ANDREWS 
LAGOS PASS TO ABUJA 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, NI 
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA: A CHAT WITH THE DETAINEE 
 
REFS:  A) KADUNA 0168  B)LAGOS 1771  C) KADUNA 0192 
D) LAGOS 0294 
 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT 
 
2.  SUMMARY: CONSUL GENERAL MET WITH SDP LEADER AND 
RECENT DETAINEE SHEHU YAR'ADUA ON FEBRUARY 22. 
YAR'ADUA SAID HE HAD NO IDEA WHY HE HAD BEEN DETAINED, 
BUT THOUGHT IT WAS PERHAPS BECAUSE HE HAD REFUSED TO 
JOIN THE ABACHA GOVERNMENT, HAD SPOKEN OPENLY AGAINST 
IT, AND ALSO HAD AN ORGANIZATION AND FOLLOWING BEHIND 
HIM.  YAR'ADUA BELIEVES THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE WILL BE 
HELD, EVEN THOUGH IT MAY TAKE DIRECTIONS THE GOVERNMENT 
WILL NOT WISH OR BE ABLE TO CONTROL.  HE FIRMLY 
BELIEVES ALL DELEGATES TO IT SHOULD BE ELECTED AND THAT 
THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT MUST NOT HAVE THE RIGHT TO VETO 
OR CHANGE THE CONFERENCE'S DECISIONS, ESPECIALLY ON THE 
LENGTH OF TIME THE PRC SHOULD STAY IN POWER.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
3.  SHEHU YAR'ADUA HAS BEEN HOSTING A NON-STOP 
POLITICAL HOUSE PARTY SINCE HIS RELEASE FROM DETENTION 
IN THE EARLY HOURS OF FEBRUARY 16.  THE STREAM OF 
VISITORS TO HIS HOME HAS BEEN STEADY, REPORTED DAILY IN 
SUCH KADUNA PAPERS AS THE DEMOCRAT.  HE HAS, HOWEVER, 
CONSISTENTLY REFUSED TO GRANT INTERVIEWS TO THE PRESS, 
IN SPITE OF OHE FACT THAT THEY HAVE STAKED HIM OUT FOR 
THE PAST WEEK.  WHEN CG CALLED ON YAR'ADUA AT HIS HABIB 
BANK OFFICE, SHE RAN INTO THE VOA STRINGER AMONG A 
LARGE GROUP OF OTHERS. 
 
4.  YAR'ADUA SAID HE COULD NOT REALLY EXPLAIN WHY HE 
HAD BEEN DETAINED.  UNLIKE HIS DETENTION, ALONG WITH 
TWELVE OTHERS, IN DECEMBER 1991, WHEN HE UNDERSTOOD THE 
MOTIVES OF THE BABANGIDA REGIME, HE COULD NOT FIND THE 
LOGIC BEHIND THIS RECENT EPISODE.  WHEN ASKED IF HE HAD 
BEEN INTERROGATED, HE REPLIED THAT HE HAD BEEN ASKED TO 
ANSWER WRITTEN QUESTIONS THAT HE BELIEVED HAD BEEN SENT 
UP FROM ABUJA.  "THEY WERE SO STUPID," HE SAID, THAT HE 
HAD ENJOYED WRITING OBFUSCUTORY ANSWERS OR ONE-WORD 
NEGATIVES. 
 
5.  HE SAID THE COMMENTS OF OTHERS TO THE PRESS THAT 
YAR'ADUA HAD SAID NOTHING SO STRONG AS OBASANJO, FOR 
EXAMPLE, WERE NOT VERY HELPFUL.  HE BELIEVED THE BIG 
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIM AND CRITICS LIKE OBASANJO WAS 
THE FACT THAT HE, YAR'ADUA, STILL HAD HIS ORGANIZATION 
AMD FOLLOWING BEHIND HIM.  OBASANJO SPOKE ONLY FOR 
HIMSELF, WHILE YAR'ADUA HAD SUPPORTERS THROUGHOUT THE 
COUNTRY. 
 
6.  YAR'ADUA ALSO BELIEVED THE ABACHA REGIME MOVED 
AGAINST HIM AS THE ONLY MAJOR POLITICAL FORCE THAT 
REFUSED TO COLLABORATE IN THE CURRENT CABINET.  HE SAID 
HE THOUGHT THAT MOST OF THOSE WHO JOINED THE CABINET 
DID SO BECAUSE NIGERIANS DO NOT BELIEVE THEY CAN REFUSE 
THE MILITARY.  AS A FORMER MILITARY OFFICER, HE KNEW 
THERE WAS NO REASON TO GO RUNNING TO JOIN GOVERNMENT 
WHEN ABACHA TOOK OVER.  AS A STAUNCH ADVOCATE OF 
CIVILIAN DEMOCRATIC RULE, YAR'ADUA BELIEVED THE ONLY 
PRINCIPLED STAND WAS TO REFUSE TO TAKE PART IN AN 
ILLEGAL REGIME. 
 
7.  YAR'ADUA BELIEVED THE ABACHA REGIME WAS A 
DO-NOTHING GROUP.  THERE WAS NO PLAN AND NO 
IMPLEMENTATION OF PROGRAMS.  THE ECONOMIC MEASURES HAD 
NOT YET BEEN PUT IN PLACE.  YAR'ADUA POINTED OUT THAT 
NONE OF THE BANKS, HIS INCLUDED, HAD RECEIVED ANY WORD, 
FOUR DAYS AFTER THE FIRST FOREIGN EXCHANGE AUCTION 
SINCE DECEMBER, WHAT ALLOCATIONS HAD BEEN MADE AND TO 
WHOM.  HE ALSO BELIEVED THE GOVERNMENT HAD NO IDEA WHAT 
WOULD COME FROM THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE AND THAT IT 
WOULD BE UNABLE TO CONTROL THE FORCES ITS CONVENING 
WOULD UNLEASH. 
 
8.  ON THE SUBJECT OF THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE, YAR'ADUA 
SAID THE REASON HE HAD CALLED IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE 
FOR A LIFTING OF THE PROHIBITION ON POLITICAL 
ASSOCIATIONS AND MEETINGS WAS TO PERMIT THE FULLEST 
POSSIBLE AIRING OF VIEWS PRIOR TO THE CONVENING OF THE 
THIS PROCESS WAS BUILDING UP HEADS OF STEAM WITH NO 
VENT.  SHOULD THIS CONTINUE, THE OPENING WEEKS OF THE 
CONFERENCE WILL BE EXPLOSIVE.  HE FEARS THE MILITARY 
GOVERNMENT MAY NOT PERMIT THE PROCESS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 
MATTERS QUIET DOWN. 
 
9.  ASKED IF HE PLANNED TO BE A PART OF THE NATIONAL 
CONFERENCE, YAR'ADUA GAVE A MORE QUALIFIED RESPONSE 
THAN THAT OF SIX WEEKS AGO (REFTEL D).  HE SAID HE 
WOULD WAIT TO SEE THE TERMS OF REFERENCE, PARTICULARLY 
ON THE QUESTION OF HOW THE DELEGATES WOULD BE CHOSEN. 
HE WAS ADAMANT THAT THE CONFERENCE DELEGATES MUST ALL 
BE ELECTED; IF INTEREST GROUPS OR TRADITIONAL RULERS 
WISHED TO HAVE INPUTS, THEY SHOULD DEAL THROUGH THE 
ELECTED DELEGATES, HE SAID.  THIS WAS A FUNDAMENTAL 
PRINCIPLE OF DEMOCRACY.  FURTHER, HE THOUGHT IT WAS 
POINTLESS FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO SAY THAT THE QUESTION 
OF NIGERIAN UNITY AMD WHAT BINDS THE COUNTRY TOGETHER 
SHOULD NOT BE ON THE TABLE.  IT ALREADY WAS ON THE 
TABLE, HE SAID, AND IT NEEDS DISCUSSION.  THE 
GOVERNMENT SHOULD HAVEI E COURAGE TO LET THE ANGER BE 
EXPRESSED AND PERMIT MORE FRUITFUL DISCUSSION TO 
FOLLOW.  FINALLY, HE WAS WAITING TO SEE WHETHER THE 
CONFERENCE WOULD BE GIVEN FULL AUTHORiTY, INCLUDING THE 
AUTHORITY TO SET THE TIME LIMITS ON THE ABACHA 
GOVERNMENT.  IN HIS VIEW, THIS WAS ALSO AN IRREDUCIBLE 
REQUIREMENT. 
 
10.  YAR'ADUA REPLIED TO A QUESTION ABOUT THE 
POSSIBILITY THAT BABANGIDA COULD STILL HOPE FOR 
RESURRECTION AS A CIVILIAN ELECTED PRESIDENT BY SAYING 
THAT "THE LONGER ABACHA REMAINS IN POWER, THE BETTER 
BABANGIDA WILL LOOK."  NEVERTHELESS, YAR'ADUA CLEARLY 
ENDORSED THE BITTER ATTACK ON BABANGIDA MADE AT THE 
AREWA HOUSE CONFERENCE BY HIS FORMER BOSS OBASANJO.  HE 
ADDED THAT BABANGIDA IS "TOO OLD, AND LAUGHED WHEN CG 
SAID SHE AND IBB WERE THE SAME AGE. 
 
11.  COMMENT: YAR'ADUA AS ALWAYS WAS HARD TO READ.  HE 
HAS A NERVOUS MANNER, WITH A FREQUENT COUGH AND MUCH 
FIDGETING.  IN SPITE OF THESE PERSONAL MANNERISMS, HE 
IS CHARISMATIC IN ONE-ON-ONE INTERVIEWS, EXPRESSING 
STRONG OPINIONS WITH CONVICTION.  THE PRINCIPLED 
DEFENSE OF DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES HE DELIVERED RANG TRUE, 
EXCEPT FOR THE NAGGING THOUGHT AT THE BACK OF THE MIND 
THAT HE IS SITTING FAIRLY PRETTY TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE 
CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE IF THE CONDITIONS HE OUTLINED 
WIN OUT.  SINCE HE HAS NOT JOINED THE GOVERNMENT NOR 
RECOMMENDED ANY PROXIES (AS HAVE, FOR EXAMPLE, PEOPLE 
LIKE SARAKI AND SHINKAFI), HE IS "CLEAN."  ON BALANCE, 
HOWEVER, WE WOULD JUDGE THAT YAR'ADUA HAS CONSISTENTLY, 
OVER THE TWO AND MORE YEARS WE HAVE HAD CONTACT, 
EXPRESSED HIS COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN RULE IN 
LANGUAGE THAT EXPRESSES BOTH CONVICTION AND A MORE 
NUANCED UNDERSTANDING THAN WE HAVE MET IN OTHER 
NIGERIAN POLITICIANS.  IN SHORT, THE ABACHA REGIME MAY 
REGRET HAVING TAKEN A STEP THAT CAN ONLY HAVE ENHANCED 
YAR'ADUA'S REPUTATION. 
 
 
WEINLAND